If people look at KERX's japanese partner's launch experience. The sales number during the first year was also very low. However, the second year sees sales number grow up 7X (1H/2015 compared to 1H/2014).
KERX's japanese partner reported 7x sales increase for 1H/2015 compared to 1H/2014 with USD18m, which will be equivalent to USD40m annual sales. Assume US market is 3X larger, KERX should be able to do $100m sales in 2016 (or a few quarters later). The current PPS is very attractive for this sales project.
They will most likely find a partner to commercialize it in China, based on CFDA's suggestion.
IMO, SNY made a mistake by targeting T2 patients. They should start with T1 patients, as T1 patients are already familiar with insulin and many of them use CGM, so it's much easier for T1 patients to learn how to adjust afrezza usage. Once ENDOs see the suprior result of Afrezza, then it's much easier to convince them to extend Afrezza to T2 patients.
ENDO don't want patients to feel that taking insulin is so simple. That's their bread and butter. So the demand has to come from patients. SNY won't be able to dump money on ad campaign due to the structure of partnership with MNKD. Since MNKD has to pay 35% of all expense, they don't want to bankrupt MNKD. Therefore, the rollout of DTC campaign has to be gradual. So just be patient.
You are right, most solid tumor drugs should now partner with HALO. If a drug can't get to the tumor cells, it won't be effective.
insurance companies are not stupid. They will realize the cost-saving benefit of Afrezza. At minimum, fewer hypos means fewer emergency room visits.
Big Pharms better start to buy some MNKD stocks now while it's still cheap to hedge their potential loss on RAA revenue.
Could be due to summer vacation time for doctors. Lots of doctors take one or two weeks vacation during this time frame.
during the first 6 months, the monthly growth rate is about 45%. If the trend continues, this week's script count should be about 434 * 1.45 = 613 (434 is week 20's script count). So your prediction should be reasonable.
For RAA like Humalog, the dosing is actually kept low to avoid hypo due to the long tail. For afrezza, there is no such worry, so you can take more dose to prevent the post-meal spike. So it's not really a disadvantage that you have to take more afrezza than humalog, but really a benefit that allows you to take more afrezza insulin to give better glucose level control, and hence, the A1C drop.
I guess SINA will announce soon. Otherwise, it won't be able to buyout cheap as the stock price keeps rising.