I should have added that ARMH is a 22.5B market cap and price of $50. They have come a long way since their beginning. Who would think that Apple was the validator of its technology. But back then, Apple didn't sue or steal the technology, they partnered. Now they think they are too great to partner with VHC.
The young and/or non-British may not remember Acorn. The important thing is that it made computers when PCs were just starting to appear. In those days, a company with an idea for a computer couldn’t just order up a batch from Foxconn (2317:TT). No, it had to have real engineers to design the parts. Acorn had those: It had a team of young, clever electrical engineers plucked from the local schools and electronics companies. As Acorn endured financial ups and downs over the years, it came to the conclusion that its chip team was a luxury it could no longer afford. The company’s management twice tried sell its chip design department only to have the deals fall through. “We felt quite unloved, really,” says John Biggs, one of Acorn’s chip engineers.
Then, in 1990, a new and determined customer arrived: Apple. The Mac maker had developed plans for a handheld computer and wanted a breakthrough microprocessor for the device. Apple, Acorn, and VLSI Technology, a chip design tools maker, formed a joint venture to build the silicon. Twelve Acorn engineers were picked to staff the company, which they named ARM
These are the primary inventors behind the patents. I trust that they are developing the best security technology that you would need:
TWST: Would you also tell us about the backgrounds of one or two of your colleagues?
Mr. Larsen: I'll give you some background on Dr. Robert Short, our Chief Scientist. He came from the Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) and has a PhD from Purdue. SAIC is one of the foremost technology integrators and research institutions in the country. Dr. Short has been involved in many crisis situations where national security was under his direction. He operated teams in the military, homeland security and Department of Defense initiatives where he was relied upon by the country's foremost people securing the country. Dr. Short was a member of the founding and inventing team of VirnetX's patents. When he was at SAIC, he was awarded the top scientist award out of 10,000 PhDs at SAIC. Another one of my colleagues is Edmund "Gif" Munger. He's the Chief Technology Officer for VirnetX and the co-inventor of the company's technologies. Not only did he work at SAIC, but he was also the chief system architect for the FBI's Counterterrorism Data Warehouse Prototype and has worked on several advanced defense systems. We're very privileged to have Dr. Short and Edmund Munger as part of the VirnetX team.
TWST: How many employees do you have?
Mr. Larsen: Currently, we have 10 full-time employees and at any one time can have up to 120 people working on VirnetX on an outsourced basis. - See more at: wwDOTtwstDOTcom/interview/25590#sthash.utTkcmpd.dpuf
Here is a great recent article on ARMH and I see VHC as similar in the security technology arena. Here is an excerpt:
The ARM model is based on this idea of spreading risk, R&D investments, and profits. ARM does the underlying dirty work and makes more money when its customers sell more things. Companies like Apple and Samsung get to focus their attention on higher-level innovations instead of grunt work
Here is the link:
On an additional note, I do not believe VHC is the patent troll that shorts would like us to believe. It appears that they could be the leader in security technology and they continue to develop this technology for the future as evidenced by their recent significant patent activity. I compare them to ARMH which develops software and technology that is used by the chip sector in manufacturing. VHC doesn't have to make a physical end product or be in the manufacturing industry to validate their business purpose. They are developers of brain technology that is used in end products. Once manufacturers see the benefits of using their technology and know how, then their existence and purpose will be validated very much like ARMH, which is now trading near $50. Manufacturers can consider VHC as an outsourced R&D department that will keep them updated on security issues as they are the experts, then they can have their internal resources focused on what they do best. Not sure if this is in line with VHC strategy, but if this is what happens then they will grow their business accordingly to meet that demand.
Willie and Invlsion...Thanks for your responses. I was pleased to see evidence that there is new activity related to their patents. Obviously, it indicates that their technology is innovative as there are no patents already issued for what they are developing. It totally surprised me that they have over 100 just finished in the last quarter. Was there any mention of this at the ASM or any conference calls? I am guessing that it must be related to mobile applications related to 4G LTE or maybe even something more forward thinking ?
It would be nice to have some sort of announcement for an android or 3G/4G contract. I would presume that the base patents for this technology are already issued. I keep wondering what the hold up is. Everything I read tells me that VHC has the ONLY government approved technology for security (IE Firstnet contracts) but the stock price certainly doesn't care until we secure actual contracts/licenses.
Did anyone notice how significantly the patent portfolio grew?
At 12/31/2012 52 issued patents and several pending
at 9/30/2013 79 issued patents and several pending
At 12/31/2013 80+ issued patents and OVER 100 pending
Are we ready for 4G LTE or what? What could they also be working on?
Appreciate thoughtful insight from long timers.
found it on Fidelity news stream. I have to go now. So far, I believe in the CC transcript you can read that they accrued a legal liability for a dispute long ago...I believe this is it.
7.5 million was already accrued last quarter...I believe even 13M was accrued so this is not going to impact current quarter IMO
This is Carl Icahn B.S. ....just shows his hate for missing out on LGF success. He would have ran it into the ground,
SEC: Lions Gate Failed to Reveal 2010 Transactions Part of Defensive Strategy
So, based on what I read so far, QCOR after 3 quarters is making 100-125M run rate for DM/PM. They are only targeting a subset market of 20-25K patients out of a total of 75K+ population. AT $25K estimated treatment cost, this would be 625M total revenues, so after 3 quarters of marketing for DM/PM they have recognized 20% penetration into their designated market.
I believe this shows the strong need for therapies in this area and the willingness and urgent desire of rheumatologists to have alternative drugs to treat these patient.
Rjeev Kumar - Goldman Sachs
Okay, and I had just one quick question on the base business. In terms of the rheumatology, maybe you could dig a little deeper into what exactly is driving most of that growth and how sustainable you think that is? And also what do you guys need to see in order to add more reps there? Thanks.
Don Bailey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay, I will let Steve answer that but basically there is a large number of patients in the therapeutic areas where Acthar is approved and while in some cases there is a fair number of the drugs available. So finding patients who aren't not responding or need help. So Steve, you want to provide any expansion to that?
Steve Cartt - Chief Operating Officer
Sure rheumatology for us, is fair amount different than some of the other areas that we have launched into, in that we have multiple indications. Its kid of a combination of orphan diseases like DM and PM combined with much larger conditions like lupus or RA which is quite large, about 1.3 million patients. In each of these areas we are targeting a subsets of DMPM, we are targeting probably about 20,000 to 25,000 target patients. In RA, we are targeting very, very small fraction of the 1.3 million patients. Of course, there are a number of drugs approved and actively used there. So a lot of treatment options but each of these offices seem to have a group of patients with a sort of run through those treatments alternatives looking for something else. So we end up, in RA, which could be a significant growth driver for us in RA. We got a small fraction but that works out to be somewhere in the 70,000 to 80,000 patient range, we think, is the target population for Acthar. So I view RA as a future potential growth driver. Lupus as well. Lupus is a little bit different than RA or DMPM. It's not really technically orphan condition, but it is much smaller than RA at about 250,000 estimated patients in U.S.
From QCOR Q4 2013 - Most Recent...increased Run rate by 50M or 20% from 200-250M in one quarter. (3 quarters total):
Fourth quarter was solid with prescription trends reflecting continued strong demand and favorable insurance coverage for Acthar across all of our markets. There are approximately 2,450 to 2,500 new paid prescriptions for Acthar during the quarter, about 30% more than the year ago fourth quarter. This was about the same level to third quarter of 2013, which is an extremely strong quarter with the mix of prescriptions continued to evolve. This evolution was largely due to further growth in rheumatology, where we continue to see increased prescribing of Acthar in the on-label indications dermatomyositis, polymyositis, rheumatoid arthritis and lupus.
There were total of 540 to 550 new paid Acthar prescriptions for these rheumatology related indications during the fourth quarter of about 20% from the third quarter. Rheumatology prescriptions now for nearly 30% of total Acthar business after only our third full quarter of promotion to rheumatologists, we estimate that net sales from rheumatology prescriptions reached an annualized run rate of around $250 million during the fourth quarter. Notably, during the quarter, we saw significantly more paid prescriptions for lupus and rheumatoid arthritis combined than prescriptions for DMPM.
We believe this illustrates the fact that there are many rheumatologists who recognize the need for additional treatment alternatives in patients suffering from these often debilitating autoimmune diseases. Coupled with the positive feedback that we hear from rheumatologists regarding the results of Acthar treatment and considering the large size of these patient population, this bodes well for Acthar's long-term potential in rheumatology.
Based on our own internal analysis, we are seeing an average of four to five vials for course of therapy in rheumatology. These vials are usually dispensed to patients over a three-month period or so, but in some cases rheumatologists appear to be maintaining patients on Acthar for longer than this. We are working to better understand vial usage patterns in the Acthar rheumatology indications, and given that the market is still new for us, we expect to understand vial usage patterns much better over the next several quarters.
Importantly, like in our other approved indications, insurance coverage for Acthar in our rheumatology-related indications has been favorable. Overall we are very encouraged by our early performance in this important new market and believe Acthar prescribing by rheumatologists will continue to increase.
QCOR calls on about 2000 Rheumatologists and got a 200M run rate in 2 quarters time:
Gary Nachman - Goldman Sachs
Hi, good afternoon. Another one first on rheumatology, Steve, I guess it’s for you. How much are you expanding the prescriber base here or is it extremely concentrated at this point? So how much of a reach you are getting with the 62 reps and I guess if you get such a great return, I am curious why you wouldn’t want to increase that number?
Yes, Garry. We are probably calling on about 2,000 doctors and getting around and getting into see them at various frequencies, but there is lot of just basic education about the drug going on right now. As far as the concentration of the usage, it’s pretty well spread out. We have very few doctors that are using much more than just a handful or one or two. So the usage right now is very diluted. Most of the use is in doctors writing for first patient or even two patients. There are some very limited exceptions to that, but it’s quite spread out at this point in time.
Sure, so rheumatology I think Don went through sort of the proportions that we are seeing. Of course we launched this effort in the middle of Q1 with our 55% sales force and the initial plan really was to be out talking to doctors about Acthar in DMPM. What we have been finding now is that while they may be interested in DMPM, in their practice the most typical rheumatologist only has a few of those patients. So they tend to naturally gravitate, when they look at the PI they gravitate more to RA and even lupus and that's were our interest level is because well they may have had a few DMPM patients, those other two are much bigger parts of their practice.
And so they have some of these doctors they try it and try Acthar at a DMPM patients, they may see good results and then immediately start dabbling so to speak and using it for RA and lupus. That’s what we have been saying, that’s probably been the biggest surprise in rheumatology is that we have seen much more early use in RA and lupus that we expected upfront. DMPM has been great, but it’s kind of natural gravitation by the rheumatologists, these other conditions have been a welcome surprise. And we are also hearing a lot of very, very positive feedback in these two conditions, I mean, very encouraging stories about patient successes on the drug. So that bodes well for the future.
Actually, half of this would be specifically for DM/PM, but Rheumatologist are noted for prescribing off label as their patients are DESPERATE for relief after so many failed treatment options. This is from QCOR CEO
Okay, so let me give some a little bit overview on each of these two questions and then Steve can add some color. So in rheumatology as I think Steve mentioned, our total sales they are roughly at a run rate of about 200 million, so we did about 50 million in the quarter. Half of that was DMPM and the other half was probably close to 2 to 1 RA and lupus.
So, IDRA can expect at least $200M run rate it is second full quarter of commercializing PM/DM
I highlight this part:
Despite it being only our second full quarter of rheumatology promotion, we estimate that net sales from rheumatology reached an annualized run rate of about $200 million during the third quarter.