I agree "This is still a very exciting time to be an LGF s/h". I will see LGF through to what I believe will result in them being acquired. It is unheard of in history for a major studio to stand alone without buyers taking them out. There is always a first as LGF is unique in maneuvering around in this new digital age of media distribution.
Nice to have you post after a long hiatus.
XXAARON, you state:Why would I be shorting LGF now? Better stocks to Short and better stocks to buy.
Okay....then SCRAM! You are on ignore now. I love some amusement, but this is so old and useless with you. You provide no intelligence to this board whatsoever. Good-bye and have a nice life.
xxaaron...oh yeah, I want everyone to buy it at $35 and above.....not! Buy as cheap as you can up to $32....this stock will go to 40-45 by end of year if market doesn't collapse. My core average is $13 but I have trading shares averaged at $29 and I will keep averaging down as I can. Let's keep the record straight xxaaron....you can keep trying to spread your FUD and garbage, but everyone here knows your game now for sure. Ha ha...a pretend long investor trying his best to spar with other long time investors.
xxaaron....you certainly will be buying/covering at much higher prices than 35 if LGF gets acquired. I believe minimum price of acquisition is $40. Less than that would be less than fair value based on 3B in sales. If their forecasts show sales to maintain or grow from this level (based on future syndication deals and movie slate) then this price is very reasonable based on my extensive research of years of movie studio acquisition. Check out the thread on this board if you are so inclined.
Skipper, there you go again. $2B in debt? Do you read the financial statements at all. Total debt is $570M. That is a big difference. You cannot include deferred revenue, participations and residuals and film obligations in debt. These costs are like A/P to a manufacturing company. They are backed by real assets - content investments. They are amortized when movies and projects are delivered. There is 1.3B in film and TV investments as of 12/31/2013. Stop your FUD
Skipper, go back to smoking your crack pipe. Now You See Me grossed 352M WW! I bet it is also providing a steady stream of VOD revenues. Divergent will gross 150M domestic and will earn more internationally in the next sequels. This is no chump change. Every studio knows it. So you are doing a poor job of convincing anyone. If anything, you are showing your ignorance to think that every movie has to be like a phenomena Hunger Games showing to be valuable.
I just watched the original Rocky from 1976 in syndication on a channel last weekend. It was awesome. That movie is still making money for MGM ( unless they sold the movie rights to someone else).
A library with 15000 movies is an annuity into perpetuity. Who are you trying to convince otherwise? HG is NOT the one hit annuity. Do your homework and come up with WHO ELSE has a library of quality content of this size. I think you will only have a handful at most. Those studios have already been acquired by cable companies and electronic companies. Also, LGF TV business is growing to 1/3 if business with a steady stream of annuities in 2016 and beyond. Stop spewing your garbage that LGF is only profitable because of HG. HG allowed them to get out of debt and the financial flexiblity to invest in producing/buying more quality content for their library.
let's look at it this way:
$45 acq. price x 155M diluted shares = $6975M acquisition = 2.325 x $3.0B Total Revenues LGF
EPS is forecasted for next year at 1.61. That is minimum 3.60% of cost earned annually. Many companies have hoards of cash and do nothing with it. This would increase a Company's sales by 3B and earnings a MINIMUM 250M/year. You can't even earn that in a bank anymore.
2x -2.5x is a very low and reasonable acquisition cost for immediate and accretive earnings. Annuity like earnings for the next 10 years...who wouldn't want that?
As disclosed on a Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on December 19, 2013, the Board of Directors of Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (the “Company”) authorized the Company to increase its previously announced stock repurchase plan to $300 million.
Since December 19, 2013 through April 10, 2014, the Company has repurchased 2,239,062 common shares at an average price of approximately $26.55 per common share, or a total aggregate of $59.4 million. There is approximately $175.4 million remaining under the current Board authorized repurchase plan. The Company’s common shares may be purchased from time to time at the Company’s discretion, including quantity, timing and price thereof, and will be subject to market conditions. Such purchases will be structured as permitted by securities laws and other legal requirements.
willing to consolidate for the right price. Burns confirmed our thinking. Buying back $60M in shares is roughly 2.3million shares at 26.50ish. Why would they do this versus paying down more debt? It makes EPS stable as top execs get more shares issued to them as stock compensation. They will hold the stock until they are bought for the right price IMO.
and price will need to be determined by top shareholders. Also they bought back $60M worth of shares in this downturn. Sounds like they are getting ready for a takeover at the highest price!
Short positions are still growing...up 5.75% or 573M shares from two weeks ago, about 13% of float:
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
3/31/2014 10,522,048 4,847,213 2.170742
3/14/2014 9,949,259 2,584,857 3.849056
2/28/2014 9,532,412 1,124,533 8.476774
2/14/2014 9,486,107 1,497,460 6.334798
1/31/2014 9,414,414 1,390,657 6.769760
1/15/2014 10,438,157 1,341,998 7.778072
12/31/2013 12,485,502 1,721,236 7.253800
12/13/2013 12,572,756 2,731,041 4.603650
11/29/2013 11,511,081 3,677,828 3.129858
11/15/2013 8,115,148 2,203,270 3.683229
10/31/2013 7,909,855 1,274,118 6.208102
10/15/2013 8,528,296 1,155,762 7.378938
9/30/2013 8,226,437 2,119,073 3.882092
9/13/2013 6,929,140 1,290,334 5.370036
8/30/2013 6,767,743 1,081,938 6.255204
8/15/2013 6,742,779 1,179,553 5.716385
7/31/2013 7,250,948 1,043,589 6.948088
7/15/2013 7,521,899 1,564,559 4.807680
6/28/2013 8,737,684 1,746,843 5.001986
6/14/2013 8,672,488 1,222,397 7.094657
5/31/2013 8,829,148 1,908,544 4.626117
5/15/2013 9,149,780 941,517 9.718125
4/30/2013 9,289,091 1,540,220 6.031016
4/15/2013 8,591,197 1,108,728 7.748697
AS of 12/31/2013:
Increased Positions: 135 17,587,132
Decreased Positions: 96 14,700,288
Net increase: 2,886,844
And if it was buybacks that were not transferred until the first quarter, I don't think LGF would have paid that much. 9M shares x $30 is $270M. I think LGF would rather pay down debt than buy back that many shares. The only other thing I can think of is that Fidelity did the job of acquiring all the shares and then transacted with other institutions via dark pools to get them shares. There was a lot of accumulation in December, so the 9M reduction by Fidelity was net by numerous increases in various institutions.