I Know I should not be looking at the daily tics but it was very depressing watching CSIQ going down constantly, even on some of the biggest rally days of the year. It's clearer to me that the shorts were correctly betting that the tariff news was going to send the stock down and boy did it. Has been true for other Chinese solars. Now that the news is out and confirmed, maybe it's finally time to find a bottom. Let's see if CSIQ can find support here at around $21 for the next week or so. Good luck longs.
This was back in late October - so it's even more true today:
Here are the top solar stocks to buy now at J.P. Morgan.
Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) is a top pick in the solar space at J.P. Morgan, and the analysts feel good the company will post solid third-quarter numbers. It is delivering panels at today’s costs against projects priced at generous FiT rates from two or more years ago. Canadian Solar is one of the world’s largest and foremost solar power companies. As a leading vertically integrated provider of solar modules, specialized solar products and solar power plants with operations in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Australia and Asia, Canadian Solar has delivered more than 6 GW of premium quality solar modules to customers in over 70 countries.
The J.P. Morgan price objective for this top stock is $41. The Thomson/First Call consensus price target is $43.75. The stock closed Thursday at $28.11 a share.
ALSO READ: The Best of UBS’s Big List of Quality Stocks to Buy Now
First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) operates through two segments. The Components segment designs, manufactures and sells solar modules, such as CdTe modules that convert sunlight into electricity for project developers, system integrators and operators of PV solar power systems. The Systems segment provides turn-key PV solar power systems or solar solutions, such as project development; engineering, procurement and construction; operating and maintenance; and project finance services to investor owned utilities, independent power developers and producers, commercial and industrial companies, and PV solar power system owners.
The J.P. Morgan price target is set at $76, while the consensus target is $67.50. Shares closed trading Thursday at $53.99.
SolarCity Corp. (NASDAQ: SCTY) is a pure-play leader in the fast growth, roof-top solar as a service market, and the analysts feel the company has a balance sheet that will support growth well into 2015. With
Lots of talk that SPWR has a very good chance of creating a Yieldco in 2015, which the street clearly loves as it allows conservative investors to invest a lower risk, dividend yielding asset and many believes unlocks value. For those that follow CSIQ closely, what do you think the chances are that CSIQ will announce this next year and will it be good for the stock?
The greatest success I've ever had in the stock market was buying solars last time when the market gave them up for dead. Bought SPWR at $4.50, SUNE at $8 etc. Industry is only getting stronger. But I don't see a bottom right now for solars. Am watching and waiting.
Sunny, I agree with you but if you look at how solar stocks have done over the past 5 years, there have been incredible runs followed by total collapses. The industry is just mature enough yet, so it's still a traders game unless you are holding very long. Certainly not irrational to be disciplined and cut losses. I am down 20% on my current position on CSIQ and wondering whether to dollar cost average at a lower price or cut my losses. Problem with dollar cost averaging is that I will then be overweight in this position. I basically agree that this looks like a great buy for value investors with a long horizon, but am too scared to buy more currently. Not sure what capitulation will look like but it's clear to me that the teens are coming.
Not good news for CSIQ - question is whether this is already largely priced in?
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States on Tuesday confirmed steep import duties on solar products from China and Taiwan, in a decision that could inflame trade tensions between the two countries.
Anti-dumping duties for Chinese goods were set as high as 165.04 percent as the U.S. arm of German solar manufacturer SolarWorld AG (SWVKk.DE) seeks to close a loophole that let Chinese producers sidestep duties imposed in 2012.
Taiwan producers face anti-dumping duties as high as 27.55 percent, according to the final Commerce decision, which SolarWorld said raised average duties for Chinese producers but cut them for Taiwan. Producers in China face separate anti-subsidy duties.
"These remedies come just in time to enable the domestic industry to return to conditions of fair trade," said SolarWorld Industries America President Mukesh Dulani.
The move is set to deal a heavy blow to China and Taiwan's solar panel shipment to the U.S. market, Chinese solar industry officials say.
Nice article - thanks for sharing. We are in the very early days of this industry and there is lots more to be done in terms of innovation, smart grids, legislation etc. before this becomes mainstream. Will be fascinating to watch over the next 5 years.
Dothemath, thanks for your thoughtful and reasoned reply - which is too rare on these boards. I am long SCTY but slightly underwater currently and keeping a close eye on it. Your points are legitimate risks. When do you think these risks become clearer and more understandable?
Yet another indicator that big capital is willing to bet on solar as the future, which we longs all know it is. Nothing can stop a great idea whose time has come.
The latest residential program follows the commitment that Bank of America previously had with SolarCity to finance more than $200 million in commercial solar power projects.
Through this financing, American homeowners stand to gain immensely. They will be able to install solar panels without any upfront cost and have access to solar electricity for less than what they pay for utility power currently.
The deal with Bank of America is likely to increase the demand for solar energy, thus boosting prospects of the company.
Highly unlikely. At some point, production will be cut and prices will stabilize because supply and demand will equal out and prices will climb back up. But this could definitely continue on through the first quarter.
racket, agree with you 100% All you have to do is look at Buffet's example. ESPECIALLY in this age of high speed trading, there is no way the retail investor can beat the pros when it comes to trading. The best way is to buy a stock at a good price and if it has a good long term story like CSIQ and other top solars, hold for years unless there is a major change in the fundamentals. The future of solar is very bright and we are in the early innings. Given the new restrictions on coal plants and the new climate deal, the need for solar is only going to grow.
That said, buy and hold is risky when the stock is very inflated. That is true of Tesla right now, but not CSIQ which has a PE of around 7! I would not buy TSLA right now, but might be tempted to pick up shares if it gets down to 160.
Hey Jason, how are those Oil and Coal stocks doing for you? I love seeing oil and coal stocks get hammered. Oil and Coal are on the way out and not a moment too soon - they are destroying the planet and poisoning our environment. The future is alternative energy - it's an idea whose time has come. It will only get more competitive over the next 5 years.
One reason is that it is considered "chinese" even if the company is incorporated in Canada. For lots of reasons, Chinese stocks are considered more risky because of lack of oversight and the many stock market manipulations known to occur there. Markets everywhere are prone to this, but we have 80 years of experience and an actual Rule of Law and the 1934 and 35 acts which give investors more confidence in our markets - for good reason.
I don't think this is the only reason, but it is a component. I too like many CSIQ longs find the gap puzzling, especially given the fact the company is making money. I'm in this and other solars for the next 2-3 years or longer as I think we are in the early innings of this industry. Good luck.
Yep, and it's what many smart investors on this board have said. I took the opportunity to average down but am still in the red with CSIQ. Am not worried - this is a long term hold and the secular story of clean energy is only in the very early innings. Am long SUNE and SPWR and SCTY as well.
Yet another sign of the long term prospects of clean energy:
NEW YORK (TheStreet) --Shares of Hawaiian Electric Industries (HE) are climbing higher by 16.32% to $32.79 mid-morning trading on Thursday, after the company announced on Wednesday that it will merge with NextEra Energy (NEE) in a transaction valued at approximately $4.3 billion.
The deal brings together two "industry leaders" in clean and renewable energy, Hawaiian Electric said in a statement.
As part of the agreement Hawaiian Electric shareholders will receive 0.2413 NextEra Energy shares per Hawaiian Electric share, and a one-time special cash dividend payment of 50 cents per share, the company said.
The transaction is expected to be completed within approximately 12 months, and as part of the deal Hawaiian Electric will spinoff ASB Hawaii, which is the parent company of American Savings Bank, to shareholders establishing an independent publicly traded company.
NextEra is taking over the biggest electric company in Hawaii in order to provide ground for its push into green energy, Bloomberg reports.
I continue to buy in and average down on SUNE, SPWR and especially CSIQ which really got hammered over the past week. Has a PE of around 7 now. Will continue to buy on weakness as I am in these stocks for the next 2-3 years or more unless something changes the secular bull story or there is some kind of a complete market meltdown.
Anyone on margin is getting killed:
• With the Nasdaq down 1.3%, solar stocks are adding to the steep Friday losses they saw after OPEC declined to cut production, sparking a huge selloff in oil prices and anything energy/commodity-related. Oil prices have bounced a little today, but WTI crude is still only around $68/barrel.
• Solar bulls have noted oil only accounts for a small percentage of global electricity production, and that solar stocks have already seen plenty of pain this year. The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -5.2%) is now down 34% from a March high of $51.07.
• Major decliners: FSLR -6.3%. SPWR -8.4%. SCTY -6%. SUNE -6.4%. SOL -12.8%.JKS -8.1%. CSUN -8.5%. CSIQ -9.3%. DQ -10.3%. VSLR -7.2%. TSL -7.8%. YGE -9.4%. RGSE -7.4%. HSOL -9.5%. TERP -5.8%. JASO -5.2%.
Something to keep in mind as solars plunge on low oil:
‘Sunlight is essentially free’
Marc van Gerven, vice president of global strategic marketing at rival First Solar, said in an email that solar can provide a competitive advantage over diesel, coal or natural gas because fossil-fuel prices, even if low at this moment, have proven to be quite volatile over time.
“Fluctuations in oil prices have little impact on solar or many other renewable energy sources. This is partly why the economic proposition of solar is so compelling, unique and valuable,” he said. “For example, up to 50% of the cost of a fossil plant is the expense of the fuel over the life of the plant, while sunlight is essentially free.”
A recent energy cost analysis by Lazard not only backs up these views on oil’s diminutive impact on renewables. It goes further in calculating that the cost of energy from new utility-scale solar and wind power plants is increasingly competitive with more relevant conventional electricity fuels like coal, natural gas and nuclear power, even without subsidies in some markets.
One reason for this, the firm found, is that the average long-term cost of large-scale solar energy, for example, has dropped 20% just in the past year and nearly 80% in the last five years. Land-based wind energy costs have fallen by 15% in the last year, and by 60% in the past five years. Less
I think you are right in the short term. The technical damage done here is severe, no doubt. But for longer term investors this is starting to look like a real bargain with a PE under 7 and a great long term secular story. But you are right that this could take many months to turn around. I am guessing the bottom will be in the teens. At some point, the bottom will be in and there will be great opportunity here and with other solar names. I will continue to buy small lots in the meantime to add to my position, which I plan on keeping for at least 1-3 years unless there is some huge change in the secular story.
Can't remember the last time a stock had a very solid quarter and was up 8% premarket only to massively sell off at market open 8%. Have to admit I am nervous that something is going on in between the positive numbers I just don't understand.