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Zillow Group, Inc. Message Board

wantstoretireearly 171 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: Jun 28, 2000
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  • Just came out - it's called Power to the People Why the rise of green energy makes utility companies nervous. Highly recommended.
    I’ve travelled the world writing about and organizing against climate change, but, standing in the Borkowskis’ kitchen and looking at their electric bill, I felt a fairly rare emotion: hope. The numbers reveal a sudden new truth—that innovative, energy-saving and energy-producing technology is now cheap enough for everyday use.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • wantstoretireearly wantstoretireearly 8 hours ago Flag

    Agree - and they can take risks on earlier stage companies than more traditional investors that are not allowed to invest in high beta stocks. I view it as very bullish, but also higher risk as they can quickly move in and out of positions.

  • Reply to

    Hedge with SUNE

    by bluecatmass 17 hours ago
    wantstoretireearly wantstoretireearly 10 hours ago Flag

    You need to research this more. Changing to a business model where you can get consistent cash flows over 20 years for projects you build rather than simply selling them is much smarter over the long term. It attracts institutional investors that want solid reliable dividend payments, thereby lowering the cost of capital and it allows the parent company's shareholders to benefit as well from those solid cash flows. Yieldco's are not new - they have been widely used already in the energy business. It's just that now, solar companies are putting them to use.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • wantstoretireearly by wantstoretireearly 12 hours ago Flag

    This is from a recent Insider Monkey article:
    The company recently announced that it plans to invest almost $15 billion in India by 2020. Most of the analysts are extremely bullish on the stock, with 12 out of 14 of them who cover the stock having a ‘Buy’ rating on it. Analysts expected the company to reduce its losses by more than half during the second quarter and post an EPS loss of $0.43, compared to the EPS loss of $0.92 that it reported for the first quarter of the year. The company stood firmly on our list of the 20 most popular stocks held by hedge funds at the end of the March quarter. Kenneth Tropin’s Graham Capital Management and David Einhorn‘s Greenlight Capital were two of the largest shareholders of the company as of March 31.

  • wantstoretireearly by wantstoretireearly 12 hours ago Flag

    From an article on Greentech news about the cheapest solar ever in recent Austin bids. Prices are dropping so quickly that a deal signed in March is already 20% cheaper! This is good and bad news:

    In March of last year, Recurrent Energy signed a 25-year deal with Austin Energy to deliver electricity from a 150-megawatt solar plant for just under 5 cents per kilowatt-hour. It was a landmark contract. But today, more than a thousand megawatts of projects are coming in for 20 percent cheaper.

    "These bids are without question the cheapest bids ever seen in a utility solar solicitation," said Cory Honeyman, a senior analyst with GTM Research.

    This price trend is a mixed blessing for developers and the utility. It shows that Austin Energy will be able to meet its 600-megawatt target with competitive PV resources. But Shalabi also said the company has "a little bit of buyer's remorse" when bids came down 20 percent after signing the 150-megawatt contract with Recurrent.

    Yes, solar prices are coming down so quickly that a 5-cent contract can induce buyer's remorse.

    This could cause delays for developers if Austin Energy cuts its procurement in 2015 in the hopes that solar prices keep dropping.

    According to Austin Energy's projections, contract prices will likely rise for 18 months if the federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC) expires at the end of 2016. But then prices will drop back down to today's levels -- or lower. With that scenario in mind, the utility may only sign one-third of expected contracts as it plans through 2020.

    "The prices of equipment and installations are going down so fast that if you were to issue another RFP post-2016, you would wipe out that difference, which is very, very small -- in the order of single digits," said Shalabi. "In other words, the ITC is not a driver for us making a decision today. We don’t have to gobble up all 600 megawatts because of the ITC."

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    to my point about the renewable biz

    by toast22342000 Jul 2, 2015 8:29 AM
    wantstoretireearly wantstoretireearly 12 hours ago Flag

    Toast another reason for this is the illogical tie in between the price of oil and clean energy companies. Oil has been going down alot recently and could continue to decline, especially if a major deal is struck with Iran.

  • Reply to

    to my point about the renewable biz

    by toast22342000 Jul 2, 2015 8:29 AM
    wantstoretireearly wantstoretireearly 12 hours ago Flag

    jmas, funny you put it that way. When I look at the multi decade multi trillion dollar opportunity that is renewables, I too feel that this is the way the computer market would have looked around 1988 or so. And this coming revolution can help literally billions of people in less developed nations get steady electricity, which means access to the internet, to lighting, refrigeration and so many other technologies that have immeasurably improved our lives. And it's our best hope for saving the planet in the long run from an environmental catastrophe. If I were young, this is the sector I would get involved in. How often does a business also offer so many social goods?

  • wantstoretireearly wantstoretireearly 12 hours ago Flag

    Looks like you are not the only one. Very nice come back from the earlier lows today. I added a little myselt but am gunshy about buying more until there is better news from China and Greece.

  • Reply to

    Hedge with SUNE

    by bluecatmass 17 hours ago
    wantstoretireearly wantstoretireearly 14 hours ago Flag

    SUNE has been by far the best performer. What's hilarious is that on my Fidelity system, CSIQ gets a strongly bullish 9.8 rating from all the analsysts following it while SUNE gets a very bearish rating and SUNE is the one stock in this sector that continues to outperform. CSIQ and SUNE are my two biggest positions. CSIQ seems ridiculously cheap with a PE of around 5 these days but it has been cheap for months and that doesn't seem to stop these sell offs. I agree with others that until CSIQ Yieldco plans are much firmer, it will underperform. And the massive sell off in China is not helping things. Still think that for long term investors like me, when the dust settles CSIQ will be a terrific deal.

  • wantstoretireearly wantstoretireearly 14 hours ago Flag

    Doesn't surprise me. However, CSIQ is a Canadian Company listed on the Canadian stock exchange and governed by their regulators. Don't really understand why it is thrown into the same group as purely Chinese companies.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    incongruous action in TAN

    by toast22342000 Jul 1, 2015 12:36 PM
    wantstoretireearly wantstoretireearly Jul 2, 2015 4:59 PM Flag

    Toast, to your point:
    In a report published Tuesday, Deutsche Bank analyst Vishal Shah commented on the solar sector, noting that current weakness provides an "attractive" entry point for long-term investors.

    "We continue to view YieldCos as a significant growth catalyst for the solar and broader renewable sector and expect YieldCos to not only increase the availability of capital, but also provide significantly lower cost of capital to the renewables sector."

    Shah said that the market is still in the early stages of a "multi-year growth cycle" of YieldCos and solar stocks are currently not factoring in the potential upside. In addition, the analyst argued there is an "even wider disconnect" between U.S. and Chinese solar valuations as investors are assigning a greater risk premium to international projects and not giving credit for successful execution of downstream IPOs.

    Shah offered several reasons why investor interest in YieldCos is expected to remain. First, the global growth outlook for renewables is likely to continue improving as companies continue to lower their expenses. Second, many YieldCos have an existing backlog of ROFO (right of first offer) assets proving "significant" visibility for three to five years of growth.

    Shah further added that YieldCos offer "one of the greatest growth prospects" as the global solar market is expecting to grow at a 30 percent compounded annual growth rate over the next five years. Coupled with that, the majority of YieldCos are targeting approximately 15 percent dividend growth, which "can be easily supported."

  • Reply to

    Good news just came out on SOLAR sector

    by cbt_58 Jul 1, 2015 12:42 PM
    wantstoretireearly wantstoretireearly Jul 1, 2015 1:37 PM Flag

    In a report published Tuesday, Deutsche Bank analyst Vishal Shah commented on the solar sector, noting that current weakness provides an "attractive" entry point for long-term investors.

    "We continue to view YieldCos as a significant growth catalyst for the solar and broader renewable sector and expect YieldCos to not only increase the availability of capital, but also provide significantly lower cost of capital to the renewables sector."

    Shah said that the market is still in the early stages of a "multi-year growth cycle" of YieldCos and solar stocks are currently not factoring in the potential upside. In addition, the analyst argued there is an "even wider disconnect" between U.S. and Chinese solar valuations as investors are assigning a greater risk premium to international projects and not giving credit for successful execution of downstream IPOs.

    Shah offered several reasons why investor interest in YieldCos is expected to remain. First, the global growth outlook for renewables is likely to continue improving as companies continue to lower their expenses. Second, many YieldCos have an existing backlog of ROFO (right of first offer) assets proving "significant" visibility for three to five years of growth.

    Shah further added that YieldCos offer "one of the greatest growth prospects" as the global solar market is expecting to grow at a 30 percent compounded annual growth rate over the next five years. Coupled with that, the majority of YieldCos are targeting approximately 15 percent dividend growth, which "can be easily supported."

  • wantstoretireearly by wantstoretireearly Jun 29, 2015 5:24 PM Flag

    While CSIQ has been getting hammered, it's not alone. SUNE, SCTY, SPWR are all down 4-5% today and the TAN is way down as well. And I don't think this is close to being over. Could easily take a week or longer for the Greek tragedy to play out - and the markets will continue to be fragile. Now is not the time to catch a falling knife - but this has nothing to do with the long term fundamentals of solar. That said, it's very painful.

  • Reply to

    the next catalyst

    by toast22342000 Jun 25, 2015 1:26 PM
    wantstoretireearly wantstoretireearly Jun 26, 2015 3:10 PM Flag

    Thanks just did. Very interesting. Please continue to follow this and report back with your thoughts.

  • Reply to

    so why this decline today?

    by sorbetfuel Jun 26, 2015 10:16 AM
    wantstoretireearly wantstoretireearly Jun 26, 2015 3:08 PM Flag

    The TAN ETF is way down too. No fundamentals have changed - this is market noise albeit painful. Most likely related to China. Fair or not CSIQ has been seen as a Chinese stock which is why it is so undervalued compared to it's US peers.

  • Reply to

    TAN down 2%

    by toast22342000 Jun 26, 2015 10:53 AM
    wantstoretireearly wantstoretireearly Jun 26, 2015 12:10 PM Flag

    Crash in Chinese shares

  • Reply to

    so why this decline today?

    by sorbetfuel Jun 26, 2015 10:16 AM
    wantstoretireearly wantstoretireearly Jun 26, 2015 12:06 PM Flag

    Easy - the Chinese Markets are crashing. Shanghai is down 7.5% today and there is massive selling going on in anything Chinese related.

    China's $8.8T stock market has plunged from first to worst on global performance rankings as leveraged speculators unwind their positions and a growing number of analysts warn that valuations have climbed too far.The Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 7.4% today, following a sell-off on Thursday that left Chinese shares down 3.5%.Morgan Stanley has now advised clients to refrain from purchasing mainland shares, saying Shanghai's June 12 high likely marked the top of the bull market.Shenzhen -8.2%; ChiNext -8.9%.

  • wantstoretireearly by wantstoretireearly Jun 25, 2015 2:32 PM Flag

    The Merrill Lynch team noted that company management expects to add significant production capacity, including a new 800 megawatt fab that will target 25% cell efficiency. They feel this will allow the company to leverage the high-efficiency technology and low-cost financing to expand on projects around the world.

    The Merrill Lynch price objective is $42, while the consensus target is $41.08. The stock closed trading on Wednesday at $31.50.

  • Will CSIQ as well? Anyone know?
    In 2010, the U.S. Department of Energy made a goal of reaching an installed price of $1 per watt for solar energy, which would make it highly competitive with electricity generated from fossil fuels. The goal was to reduce the cost of large-scale solar systems from projections of around $3.50 per watt in 2010 to the $1 mark by 2020.

    A reduction in cost of 71% in a decade seemed like a stretch five years ago, but industry leader First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) says it will hit $1 per watt in 2017, three years ahead of schedule. First Solar is one of the most popular solar stocks among hedge funds.

    What’s driving solar costs to beat fossil fuels
    According to First Solar’s CEO Jim Hughes, cost reductions over the past few years has led to an increase in utility interest in solar both domestically and internationally. Just today, First Solar announced a new solar project in Dubai that will get 5.84 cents per kWh for electricity. That’s competitive with fossil fuels anywhere in the world and, for some perspective, that’s less than half of what the average residential U.S. household pays for electricity.

  • Reply to

    the next catalyst

    by toast22342000 Jun 25, 2015 1:26 PM
    wantstoretireearly wantstoretireearly Jun 25, 2015 2:15 PM Flag

    Toast, could you elaborate on this? Is this another financial innovation and how does it work exactly? Thanks

Z
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