With Republicans in charge of Congress, you can forget about the ITC getting extended. Ain't going to happen.
You are truly a foul and disgraceful human being. This bad karma will come back to haunt you.
Really hope that is not true - if it is you need to seek counseling for gambling addiction. Like many here, I have invested way too much but at least it was not my entire portfolio. Please seek help immediately!!
Very very true. They have done a terrible job of communications and this feeds the fear when things go south. Even the recent India sale to GLBL was lame - no discussion of the CAFD that it would generate for example. This is very worrisome. In the absence of real information, the shorts and the sellers will rule. I am quickly losing what little faith I have left with them. They had better be working overtime including Thanksgiving, to salvage this company.
The volatility is sickening - never seen anything like it. The company is too complex and not transparent enough and very hard for analysts to model. Management has made terrible mistakes and over leveraged the company. No one knows who exactly to believe, but management has no credibility left. So unless there is really good real news like a significant sale, the closing of the the deals etc. the downgrades will take it down. The fear also is risk of contagion. Fortunately, that was somewhat relieved when they paid off the margin loan but the Street doesn't know if there are other bombs buried in SUNE's complex balance sheet. Really sad to see this management grow the business so effectively over the past 4 years only to blow it up by becoming too reckless. The Vivint deal was an absolute disaster. The best news right now is that this deal is renegotiated at a significantly lower price - or that payments will be pushed out over years somehow to take the pressure of TERP's balance sheet.
I have to agree with you. These dividends will not be sustainable. GLBL's is now over 25% and TERP's well over 15%
That's the only thing that can help this stock short term - is good news. And it's hard to know when and if that will happen. After the huge sell off today in TERP and GLBL the damage to the SUNE complex is worse. Not a good day for longs at all
Some analysts take your position, others like Shah at DB does not. Place your bets!
Exact details of new project economics are unknown but the company’s claim that the Indian projects are higher yielding versus previous GLBL projects suggests that alignment between yieldco and SUNE interests is working as planned by yesterday’s management change. While the sale of assets under construction could raise questions about drop down strategy going forward, replacing GLBL’s initial portfolio was necessary and this strategy appears to benefit both companies. In addition, SunEdison will likely transfer ~$400-500M of project debt to GLBL’s balance sheet, and could generate an incremental ~$48M of cash, assuming the full $231M was paid upfront and effectively increase their cash balance (assuming intra-quarter usable cash balance of ~$558M is reduced by an incremental ~$162M in margin loan paydown, ~$21M of fees, and increased by $231M for India project sales).
Not sustainable. So much damage to try and repair - it will take times and good news - lots of it! Long will have to be very patient.
Another concerned voice wades into the debate over solar energy installation firm SunEdison (SUNE) and its YieldCo., TerraForm Power (TERP), today, as the two stocks plunge, Citigroup’s Sophie Karp, who covers shares of TerraForm Global (GLBL), a portfolio of renewable energy assets around the world.
Karp writes that given the uncertainties, “we are placing our price target and recommendation under review while assessing the implications on the value of GLBL.”
TerraForm Global today announced that its Board of Directors declared its first dividend on the Company's Class A common stock of $0.1704 per share. This amount represents a quarterly dividend of $0.275 per share, or $1.10 per share on an annualized basis, prorated to adjust for a partial quarter as the Company closed its initial public offering of shares on August 5, 2015. The dividend is payable on December 15, 2015 to shareholders of record as of December 1, 2015.
UBS Downgrade to sell biggest reason. Also the Abengoa bankruptcy. Meanwhile, Needham comes out with a buy. The Street is totally confused and all over the map about the SUNE complex. Buying here will either show we are geniuses or idiots. Seems like the market is pricing in a binary event. Never seen anything quite like it. It's a testimoney, and not a good one, to how hard it is to value these companies.
From a smart analyst on SA
BofA Merrill Lynch research analysts will hold an invitation only meeting for a small group of investors on Wednesday, December 1st. The analysts believe that SUNE does not have a liquidity problem and will lay out their base case and worst case scenarios with detailed cash flows. UBS and Moody's downgrades of the equity and debt ratings of TERP this week are very late in the game and probably at the bottom. SUNE's repayment of the margin loan eliminated any near term (unjustified) market concerns over liquidity. Between now and yearend it is highly likely that SUNE will announce an additional asset sale at an attractive price to a third party (not TERP or GLBL) and this will further boost the bull argument and demonstrate that there is ample demand amongst third party investors for these projects. SUNE will also try to close the Invenergy acquisition prior to yearend. This will be a positive since it will further reduce uncertainty around the stock. For better or worse, the VSLR deal will not close before yearend because they have not filed an S-4 with the SEC yet.
One thing to keep in mind, with the exception of the announced acquisitions and the projects already under construction, all the other projects in the backlog and pipeline are optional. SUNE can walk away or sell them if it wants to and TERP can choose not to purchase any additional projects. They both would then harvest the cash flow from existing projects. This would result in no growth companies but they would spin off a ton of cash. Alternatively, the SUNE back log and pipeline and the control of the yieldcos could be of enormous value to a potential acquirer with plenty of capital and a need for growth. As concerns dissipate over the near term liquidity issues and the VSLR deal is closed or resolved, SUNE becomes a big takeover target. If you are a long-term investor with a 12 month time horizon (meaning you will not need to sell the stock for any reason over the next 12 months), then you should think about keeping the stock.
Fair point - however, you need to distinguish project level debt from other debt. SUNE has not had ANY problem raising project debt at very good rates. See the recent loans they got in the UK at 4%. There is plenty of demand for high quality solar projects around the world and demand remains strong. See recent wins in LA and in India. ALso, read the new Lazard study that just came out which shows that the economics of solar are better than ever and much better than most competing technologies. Agree that it will take a year or longer for SUNE to repair the damage and ONLY if they actually deliver.
For a positive take on the management changes see:
About the management changes made on Monday, Michael Morosi, an analyst with Avondale Partners said it could help restore simplicity to SunEdison. “I think it’s an important acknowledgement that the acquisition and debt-driven growth strategy needs to be retooled,” Morosi said in an email. ”The operators need to take over the reins from the bankers, and Brian and Rebecca will bring a different perspective to the financial strategy of the YieldCos,” he adds.
Thanks for posting. Not good news. Shows that SUNE has lots of work to do to repair the damage they've caused and regain investor trust. Both TERP and SUNE way down in pre-market. But fortunately, DB and others are more optimistic,. That's what makes a market. We'll see who is right a year form now. The entire SUNE complex and how the interlocking parts work remains to difficult for most to understand.
You really have no idea how stocks work, do you? Stocks at best go up in a slow, stair like manner and it will take many months or even a year or more before we see $15 - and we need lots more good news for that to happen and SUNE MUST execute and meet the promises it gave to investors. SUNE's management credibility is currently destroyed and it will take 3-4 quarters of good results to repair the damage. I would be thrilled if SUNE got over $5 by sometime in December.
Actually SUNE is better positioned than most to handle the ITC cliff. They have many assets overseas and they also have alot of wind assets which are not affected. SO they have much better diversity. And if you look at the Lazard report that just came out, you'll see that your comment about solar just surviving on subsidies is totally wrong. In fact, its more economic now than most other sources. Google it or find my earlier post.