Yes, before (note: "before") the FDA action they had indeed opted for more space, but now they are scrambling to undo their lease obligation. They may be able to do so, but as with all things of this nature, it will be costly to break the lease. One thing in their favor is that the space was being built out, so it might be attractive to another possible tenant who would presumably obtain a lower cost lease and could build the space to his needs.
"Unthinkable?" Unsubstantiated more like it, what is the source (public, that is) of this information?
There is no way to know whether it is a buy to cover or a straight buy and one can not assume that it is one player. The volumes look very odd, especially for after hours and on a weekend.
No, not "on the close" but after the close-big difference-if the figures are accurate, looks very odd. Margins have to be under assault, we bought a coffee grinder at the store marked down to $39, and then received another 20% off of that price, bringing it down to $31.20. The exact same item at Amazon is $95, so here they are charging about 1/3 of what AMZN charges, seems excessive to me in terms of the discount, but it is what it is.
My inclination is to hold the stock in here.
Just amazes me that people always "win" (that is on the boards). I have yet to see anyone step up and say "I lost." Just remarkable. Remember even Ted Williams only batted .400 (once that is)
....a free-standing company, it goes at $5 a share or $10 a share, but it is gone. Their only market, and a dwindling one at that, is in the corporate sector. Retail is not an option. But what corporate manager is going to put his neck on the line to recommend Blackberry to his bosses, the folks who can fire him? The answer very simply is none, like in zero. They could have the best mouse-trap and it would make no difference, the risk is simply too great, too great that is for the corporate type who catches the 5:20 and has a mortgage to pay.. However, as part of a long-term-they-will-be-around name like an IBM or some similar powerhouse, then the playing field becomes, if not level, at least playable. But alone, no way.
Which makes today's corporate actions interesting. These actions could be construed as more than a mere cleaning the decks and that is the assumption that I arrive at. So, is it $5? or $10? My inclination is to the higher number but that is shear speculation. But the slate cleaning does open the possibility that various parts could be more easily hived off, so my further guess is that is what is afoot, that the company will be broken up and one hopes that the parts will add up to be greater then the current price. In here, and as a so-called businessman's risk, I think the stock is a buy.
The company, by most metrics, is hovering on going out of business, they sell, but don't collect money, how is that a good business plan? "And who cares about equity?" I'll take it that you really don't mean that, they are getting deeper into the hole every quarter, they need cash flow and that is just not in the cards.
The balance sheet rules. They have supposedly-but more on that in a bit-3.5 billion RMB on their balance sheet as equity. But they also show 370 million of goodwill and 777 million of investment in joint ventures as non-current assets. How good are those assets.?They know but avoid discussion. And year to date, goodwill is down over 50 million RMB, suggesting that the assets were not really "good" assets, My guess is that they are not worth what they show. In addition, "other investments" jumped by a factor of 4 to 30 million RMB, a small amount but what are they investing in?
And then there is the issue of the trade receivables which they admit are troublesome. They add up to 5.1 trillion RMB, a big number. And for every RMB written off, there is a direct charge to equity, to book value. On top of that they have trade payables and bank loans for 4.8 trillion RMB showing as current liabilities. They either pay them or roll them over to keep the wolf from the door.
The bottom line as I see it, is that the equity is not what it seems to be, that it is markedly less than we are led to believe. How much? Hard to say, it depends on how much of a haircut they have to take on the receivables. A 30% haircut on the receivables would cut their equity right in half. Is that a reasonable assumption, is it too high? Too low? All I am saying is that it is something to be both aware of and concerned about. And you are still left with the need on their part to generate cash to deal with the liabilities that they have incurred.
I'll stick by my assessment, they probably ought to wrap up their stock market adventure and forget about trying to impress what few investors are left.
I certainly would if I were them. And, given that they had the call at 8 pm for the first time ever, that alone suggests disinterest in the American investor.
They have real problems on the communication front, the most obvious is the language issue, going from one to the other on-the-wing so to speak. And the written transcript is sadly lacking, reflecting the language differences. On top of that they allude to the credit problems but stop short of discussing them in detail and yet if they were an American company and just looking at the balance sheet, they would be on the very brink of bankruptcy by most metrics that one might apply. The Cheshire Cat was spot on when Alice asked where she should go and his reply was that it really doesn't matter what direction you head it if you don't know where you are going.
You just cant keep selling stuff and kind of hope that you are walking to the right end of the rainbow, that a reward-namely being paid-awaits you. They have to be-but I suspect won't-much more specific on how they intend to get margins up. Higher prices, and if so how much higher? Lower cost of production? If so, how will that be achieved, fewer workers? India? Again they alluded to problems but didn't elaborate. Cayman Islands? Always suspect as a domicile.
No, what they should do-and in fact may be planning-is to drop their NYSE registration and wish us all well as they regroup-or try to-in China. Having a NYSE "badge" is meaningless at the moment. The stock is at best a hold.
The balance sheet is a disaster and they refuse to address the main issue, they sell the stuff but don't collect the money, so the receivables continue to build up. And further to the same issue, "discuss it, who, us?" Just remarkable.
The level of trade receivables hardly budged year-over-year. In the text accompanying the release they stated that provisions were made but were not explicit, so it is impossible to determine how serious they are in solving the problem. Profitless prosperity does come to mind. Another troubling aspect is the sharp increase in "associates" investment. Just who are these associates, are they insiders who can tap corporate coffers? One certainly can not tell from the information that was provided.
Until they "solve" the receivable issue, the stock will go nowhere, at least in my opinion. Why it had the sharp rise that it did, came as a surprise to me, and with the recent price action, the increase in price seemed premature.
A hold at best.
Very difficult to analyze and not made easier with the Cayman connection, always a concern.
...there is no possibility that any corporate type would entertain establishing Blackberry as a prime vendor. Would you lay your job on the line for someone who may not be here in a year? The only option (repeat: "only") is to do one of two things: (1) Sell out to a "name," someone who will be around, therefore not jeopardizing my job; the Blackberry Division of Anyone Big, Inc works or (2) break it apart. Staying as Blackberry is just not an option.
A hold in here, but beginning to doubt the wisdom of that sentiment.
...would wait until some of the dust has settled, in other words see what Fairfax might do. If Fairfax had wanted to play, you could still have stepped in. But with them withdrawing, it would seem that the $0.15 "penalty" is no longer an issue, and while not a major deal-breaker, $65 million, is still a sizable chunk of cash. And, by waiting you get a chance to see what the other potential competitors might (or might not) do. The apparent lack of interest may be just that, and that in reality there may be some interest, and that is what makes ball games, but "may" is the operative word.
One puzzling thing is that apparently Fairfax and some others are putting in $1 billion. It will be interesting to see at what price (presumably with warrants) and if there are any new players. Taking that thought just a step further, one might ask why anyone new would step in, Fairfax makes sense, they have an investment to protect, but new money? On the surface, it looks like good money chasing bad money, so there must be some underlying logic to further investment on their (collective) part.
So, I am going to hold on to see how the hand plays out.
But they don't have 2.6 billion, they are running off cash each month, the important figure is "net" cash looking out (say) 6 months. One puzzling thing is why Fairfax would ante up another $1 billion (along apparently with some others). On the surface it looks like good money after bad. I plan to hold the stock in here to see if something else might transpire.
Look, be logical, if you are interested, the last thing you will do, the very last, is to announce your interest early. To do so, would only drive up the price, indicating "demand." No, everyone waits until the last moment to make their intentions known. I would not be surprised to see this drag out for a longer period of time, which could be construed as positive.
Ah, doesn't that also mean that someone (else) sold 3 million shares? The important thing was it on an uptick (demand) or at a discount ("I want out')
Right, I'm sure they will, but in so doing NBG (or any seller of bad loans) has to immediately recognize the loss, there truly is no free lunch.
If the stock was in fact $70 a share before the 2 reverse splits, then the first "adjustment" would have brought it (the highest price) down to $14, the next split down to $1.40. But with that said, where the stock was 3 or 4 years ago is irrelevant. A lot of things have happened and for that matter still are. The much bigger issue is how the warrant exercise might affect the stock, the first tranche is due for potential exercise in a bit over a month. The exercise price at this juncture is about 5.50 a share, so exercise looks like it will happen, then we will have to see what happens. My near term guess is to hold, but I am surprised at the upward move in such a short period of time.
I am guessing that in their initial testing (before approval) that they did in fact try different dosage levels and found 45 mg to be the best of the lot, not perfect in terms of side effects but effective in terms of its main goal. The reference to 30 mg and 15 mg is for patients who started at 45 mg, in other words at the reduced dosage you have what amounts to a "maintenance" level, or at least that is my reading after listening to the call.
Since apparently 30 mg was not satisfactory back two or three years as a starting point, and again that is just my surmise, it seems logical that they tested at different levels, then they have a problem that will take a lot of time to solve. They will probably have to go through a fairly lengthy series of trials at the 30 mg level to convince the FDA as both the efficacy at that level as well as the safety. They probably know the answer as to effectiveness, but they may not know the answer as to the current question, that is how well tolerated is the drug, that is what will take time.
My sense is that they will have to do at least 2 things. The first and most obvious is to recalibrate the drug. The second, and very difficult for them, is that they are going to have to downsize the organization that they have just built up and they do have two five story buildings that they have leased in Cambridge that will be essentially excess baggage, at least for a couple of years.
With all that said, the bad news is out, institutions not wanting to be seen as being stupid at year end, have voted with their feet and more will join them in the next two months. And then of course there will be tax selling. Nevertheless, the drug does work, even with the side effects, so down here, I think it is a buy.
...so it seems to me. If you are a cancer patient and are told that there is a 20% chance that you might suffer a significant side effect but that the alternative is to take a maintenance drug that works, the choice seems easy, at least to me, I would take the drug. The real question is does 20% become 40%. And if they go to the lower initial dosage, how long will it take to get meaningful results, I would guess at least a year.
So, my take is that the stock is a buy in here, there will be ample selling, for tax reasons if none other and little in the way of good news for some time. But the other side of that is much of the bad news, if not all of it, is out on public display.