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AuRico Gold Inc. Ordinary Share Message Board

warmcamp 18 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 20, 2015 6:01 PM Member since: Oct 15, 2003
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  • I posted on this topic 2 or 3 years ago, after seeing a bad sign in press-releases (if I remember correctly, it was something related to bad ground conditions that company found while digging the shaft). Actually, it was the last straw that caused me to discontinue investment in RBY. Bad ground conditions are the worst thing that could happen for an underground mine. As you from present situation (as it is described in today's press-release) these conditions already caused construction delay and, probably, sizable cost overruns.

    Naturally enough, that warning was attacked by sewells and his glorious comrade piopuke. These two pumpers produced lot of harm on this message board and I see they continue doing it. Some people has neither dignity, nor shame.

    Hopefully, sudden recovery in gold price will help this stock to avoid the worst-case scenario. Good luck with your investments.

    PS: please, do not consider this message as an invitation for discussion. I cannot promise any replies. Thanks

  • Reply to

    Q2

    by engynear Aug 5, 2015 9:38 PM
    warmcamp warmcamp Aug 8, 2015 6:42 PM Flag

    It is enough to say that he has the same propensity to pump as rival. It would not surprise me, if they were buddies. By the way, I saw few old-time GORO shills surrounding sewells on old RBY message board.

  • Reply to

    4x Cash Flow?

    by gnik4luap Aug 7, 2015 11:37 AM
    warmcamp warmcamp Aug 8, 2015 10:36 AM Flag

    In general, investors base their expectations on present financial environment. Commodity price can change up or down, it is inevitable; however, one should look at present financials, whether companies make money now, before investing in stocks. It is too obvious that any silver mining stock will go up big if silver price goes up strong. Is this assumption sufficient to make a solid investment case? I don't think so.

    Silver sector is in strong bear market now. It means that any purchases here are risky bets based, in best case, on hopes of lucky strike tomorrow; i.e. they should be considered as pure trading moves. You buy it counting on quick bounce and you take profits right on spot. If profit doesn't appear quickly, then save your principal while it is possible.

    In more practical terms, it means that you buy right after big drop. If you are lucky and get the bounce next day, then take your profit. If bounce doesn't come in for couple weeks and stock continues sitting on the same low level, then next leg down becomes more probable and you better sell without waiting for another day.

  • Reply to

    Does this ever go up????

    by bmitchell1023 Aug 5, 2015 3:44 PM
    warmcamp warmcamp Aug 5, 2015 4:14 PM Flag

    It may indicate that it was neither a buy at 9, nor a steal at 7. It was a casino bet in both cases.
    It is possible to have gains, even in casino. However, fundamentals reasons for gains here won't appear as long as US economy shows strength.

  • Reply to

    All mining stocks will go to $0

    by momentum_play Jul 20, 2015 11:17 AM
    warmcamp warmcamp Jul 30, 2015 7:40 PM Flag

    Hello, Tthemainman

    I saw your message on another board, where you mentioned my alias. Probably, it was EXK.
    Frankly speaking, your message created kind of confusion for me. On one hand, I appreciate your kind estimate of my humble contribution to message board discussions. On the other, the comparison you used in the same message is not something that I like :).

    In any case, as you said, a lot of water gone under the bridge and past discussions are not very important anyway. Good luck with your present and future investments.

  • warmcamp warmcamp Jul 30, 2015 7:00 PM Flag

    It is quite obvious that all silver mining stocks are struggling and so it is unlikely to be traced to words coming from particular CEO. The reason behind the struggles is well-known: multi-year bear market in silver and many other commodities. Most silver miners (with very rare exceptions) perform now with negative earnings and some of them with negative cash flow.

    Also, it is not easy to reduce AISC now, after few years of bad market; companies already made all possible efforts to improve operating performance. Yes, it is still possible to close unprofitable mines completely, but that's not an easy decision and it doesn't come cheap; companies would still have to pay for temporary or permanent closures.

    PAAS CEO has reason to sound, maybe, more confident than peers, CEOs of many other silver miners. This company has enough liquidity, including real cash, to continue functioning in relatively normal way, i.e. disregarding operating losses, for many years. I understand that it is not a big consolation for shareholders. It is more like an explanation of the situation.

  • Reply to

    Silver stocks in a market correction

    by abama_fan Jul 22, 2015 6:50 PM
    warmcamp warmcamp Jul 22, 2015 7:01 PM Flag

    It is a good question. Unfortunately, exact answer won't be known unless correction really comes in. In my opinion, the best-case scenario for silver stocks would be keeping ground, just because they are already beaten down. I don't think it is the likeliest scenario, because corrections usually hit the riskiest assets the most. PM equities are firmly in "risky assets" category now.

    In my opinion, present PM investors should better hope on strong market rally that could raise all boats. In this case, the riskiest assets could jump up stronger than average. Again, I don't think it is the likeliest scenario.

    Also, I would like to use this message to wish good luck to all present shareholders and, specially, to Agiraffe.

  • Reply to

    Out for now

    by abama_fan Jul 16, 2015 6:22 PM
    warmcamp warmcamp Jul 18, 2015 2:44 PM Flag

    Silver stocks are not supported by fundamentals; better say, their fundamentals are so deep underwater that they have very little influence on share prices. It makes impossible to have any good predictions where prices go, where the bottom is and so on.

    As long as bear market continues silver stocks will have many bounces and drops; mostly drops because the bear looks for victims. It is a chaotic process without any rationale available to pinpoint the turnaround point or something like this. Some day few guys will get lucky by buying exactly at the bottom; many other guys will lose more by trying their luck too early.

  • Reply to

    $7.86 ?

    by tedallinnby76 Jul 10, 2015 3:34 PM
    warmcamp warmcamp Jul 10, 2015 5:16 PM Flag

    Probably, not. SLW legal/taxation problems come from streaming that, seemingly, Canadian tax authority finally decided to consider a pure financial enterprise. PAAS is not a streamer; it is an old school mining company.

  • Reply to

    Question

    by arizona_guy77 Jul 10, 2015 10:10 AM
    warmcamp warmcamp Jul 10, 2015 2:53 PM Flag

    Silver and gold can become "safe havens" in certain situation: extreme weakness in US economy. It is not the case now. PM mining stocks are not "safe havens", never been, nothing even close to that. They are risky assets, not suitable for long-term investment. They can be good, sometimes, for short or mid-term investments; but one should always remember about selling in time and assess whether downside protection exists. SLV or GLD cannot go to zero; many mining stocks can, especially in bear market.

  • Reply to

    Game changer for PAAS

    by yeltzenboris Jul 9, 2015 4:19 PM
    warmcamp warmcamp Jul 10, 2015 2:49 PM Flag

    Ok, I read last quartetly release again and didn't find any hints, not even talking about words, indicating that company spends more on Navidad. Also, if I remember correctly, Navidad is located in inhospitable, practically uninhabited area. Having local communities to decide project fate would be a very good change for PAAS; I am not sure whether it would be the case.
    Company will spend more capex on Mexican expansion projects this year, Colorada and Dolores.

  • Reply to

    Game changer for PAAS

    by yeltzenboris Jul 9, 2015 4:19 PM
    warmcamp warmcamp Jul 9, 2015 7:20 PM Flag

    Few years ago this board was filled with messages explaining that Kirchner is very pro-mining and, for sure, will move Navidad forward.

  • Reply to

    Game changer for PAAS

    by yeltzenboris Jul 9, 2015 4:19 PM
    warmcamp warmcamp Jul 9, 2015 7:18 PM Flag

    Boris, you are not right! Hopefully, you know that these words are not related directly to you :)
    It is not quite correct that Navidad didn't move forward because of Chubut governor. Actually yes, the governor proposed draconian royalties and taxes, and they didn't become law because Chubut legislature didn't want even this: it wanted to ban the project outright. This friendly disagreement between two anti-mining forces allowed PAAS to keep mining rights on Navidad, but actual chances to do mining there are low. If Scioli wins then forget about this. If Macri wins then it is not enough, you would have to hope that Chubut local elections also bring up better situation in the province, and, frankly, it doesn't look this way.
    It should be said too, that PAAS cannot influence Argentinian elections.

  • Reply to

    10 year low for paas

    by esyslpr Jul 4, 2015 7:04 AM
    warmcamp warmcamp Jul 7, 2015 6:58 PM Flag

    Sure, it is not easy. Most silver miners lose money in big way at present silver prices. Buying a stock means rolling a dice. it has nothing to do with fundamentals. If Chinese crisis accelerates or Japan shows weakness, then buying commodities (any variety) is not a sound idea.

  • Reply to

    Greek Default imminent.

    by dj_rocks_it Jun 28, 2015 4:21 PM
    warmcamp warmcamp Jun 30, 2015 8:39 PM Flag

    Gold and silver are contrarian indicators of US economy. As long as US economy moves forward, PM situation will likely stay bleak.

  • Reply to

    Why the big drop on Friday?

    by tedallinnby76 Jun 20, 2015 4:05 PM
    warmcamp warmcamp Jun 21, 2015 9:15 AM Flag

    You know, ted, I suspect that your investment criteria is not the same as ones I use. That's all right, every person is unique.
    However, it is hard for me to accept that "PAAS is a steal..." is kind of fact. Frankly speaking, I would not take it as "fact" for any stock :). Don't take it personal and hope you will make it. At the same time, in case your investment record is not too long, try to research fundamentals. If any "facts" exist in stock investment business, then they used to come from fundamental side, not from our attitudes and demeanor.

  • Reply to

    Why the big drop on Friday?

    by tedallinnby76 Jun 20, 2015 4:05 PM
    warmcamp warmcamp Jun 20, 2015 5:15 PM Flag

    First of all, it was an option expiration day. Many stocks become volatile on such days.
    Also, the stock rose strongly right before the drop; it happened also without news.
    In general, PM stocks are trading vehicles now; they can move fast and strong without any news.
    Also, do not consider it as offense, but using margins, especially in this sector now, is a very risky idea. Market is always unstable and this sector cannot rely on support from fundamentals.

  • Reply to

    Mt. Hamilton Deal

    by augustusgloop Jun 11, 2015 9:20 AM
    warmcamp warmcamp Jun 11, 2015 7:33 PM Flag

    I think it is a good deal and it creates interesting opportunity here. Certainly, XPL deserves consideration and analysis now. Zinc price may have some problems in short-term, because of Chinese slowdown. However, zinc cycle will likely enter boom period in mid-term.

    Hopefully, this stock will see better times ahead. Gold part of the story was tough, but, it seems, this company went out better than many peers.

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