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AuRico Gold Inc. Message Board

warmcamp 27 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Oct 15, 2003
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  • Silver goes through second your of bear market and it seems that high-grading is about to hit limits. Miners will be forced to start attrition closing unprofitable mines. I think that PAAS will start it this winter. There is no good reason to keep Bolivian mine and Argentinean mine is not much better.

    In investment sense, PAAS will be come attractive after it is forced to cut dividend and closes unprofitable operations.

    PS: I noticed that it becomes increasingly difficult to post a message on these boards. Yahoo keeps denying this service. Is it only my experience or other posters see it too?

  • warmcamp by warmcamp Sep 16, 2014 5:16 PM Flag

    Deutsche Bank initiates coverage with "Buy" rating and $18 target price.
    That's the reason for today better stock performance.

  • warmcamp by warmcamp Sep 12, 2014 5:18 PM Flag

    This new charter ("Dione") indicates that drybulkers are not out of woods yet. New rate (9.2K/day) is close to cash flow break-even point; maybe, a shade better than break-even; and DSX has one of the lowest break-even points in industry.

    Anyway, it is better than it was couple months ago. Also, the main reason behind today's retreat was general market pullback that will likely end next week. DSX performed better than peers today, as it should be expected for this stock on down day in the sector.

  • Reply to

    What people are not talking about?

    by ggray1956 Sep 8, 2014 10:01 AM
    warmcamp warmcamp Sep 8, 2014 6:56 PM Flag

    Bear market in gold started in April 2013, when gold price really took big tumble down. Most gold bulls left gold investment in the same 2013, few months/quarters later. You can call them educated bulls; they know that bear market in gold can continue for very long time and can be more brutal then it showed this time so far.
    Also, there is no direct correlation between gold price and amount of paper money in circulation. Allusions to this link are leftovers from old times of gold standard. It was abolished long time ago and it will not be restored, on this planet at least. It was a big mistake to see paper money printing (QE, etc) as a pre-cursor to big and inevitable jump in gold price or even to gold standard restoration; I was guilty myself in shifting sometimes to this point of view.
    Gold price can recover and return to upward path only when market participants lose confidence in world economy (it means, usually, U.S. economy). So far, most economic and political news point to strong U.S. economy. It makes the judgment clear, in general sense. U.S. economy looks strong and safe in near-term. It makes gold investment very questionable endeavor during the same near-term; dangerous if done on grand scale, for sure.

  • warmcamp by warmcamp Aug 28, 2014 6:21 PM Flag

    With BDI staging strong recovery, it is doubtful that DSX ticker can go to low 10s again, even if market pulls back next week. Drop below 10 would be extremely strange.
    It means, imho, that DSX is a buy now and it would become a strong-buy if it drops 2-3% more. Please, remember that DSX has many ships waiting for renewal at the end of 2014. Present shipping rates indicate significant revenue growth in near-term, with earnings going positive in 2-3 quarters.

  • warmcamp by warmcamp Aug 26, 2014 5:20 PM Flag

    Frankly, I didn't visit that site for a while, but as far as I can remember The Silver Institute offers very detailed information about silver production, demand, etc.
    PS: I apologize for starting new thread, had problems with replying to your message. Anyway, that thread title doesn't look too good :)

  • warmcamp warmcamp Aug 25, 2014 6:49 PM Flag

    Bqdoo, those factors (i.e. low silver price that causes present lack of profits in silver mining) do not slow production yet. At least, many silver producers continue reporting record number of ounces. Also, most silver is produced by copper mining companies, not by pure silver miners. Copper price moves very differently now; it is firming up, creating for copper miners incentives to increase production.

    In general, points above are not too important, because silver price is stitched to gold price, i.e. gold price is the main factor. However, it still can be noted that production decline is not happening and it is unlikely to happen in near-term future.

  • Reply to

    Long-term investments

    by warmcamp Aug 11, 2014 6:25 PM
    warmcamp warmcamp Aug 18, 2014 6:42 PM Flag

    DCIX has already added 35 cents since DSX bought shares. It means almost 9 cents/share addition to DSX earnings. It looks, for this specific short-term period (less than a month), as not the worst investment.

    Also, as it becomes clearer now, DSX was a good buy in 9s. Congratulations to all lucky buyers.

  • Reply to

    Winds Of Change

    by hourlyrate2013 Aug 6, 2014 2:00 PM
    warmcamp warmcamp Aug 13, 2014 5:54 PM Flag

    Both gold and silver move based on mostly macro-economic considerations. It makes them almost identical in long run. However, in short term gold used to react on specific geopolitical events stronger than silver. For example, as of now gold reacts to events in Ukraine stronger than silver does. More specifically, when someone (imaginary market participant) suddenly runs for cover, it looks for gold, primarily, to cover retreat.

  • Don't forget about long-term investments having impact on earnings, because of mark-to-market re-calculation every quarter. DSX owns about 20M shares of DCIX now, most of them new shares at $2.50. Every 4 cents change in DCIX share price means 1 cent impact to DSX earnings per share.
    By the way, it must be noted that past awful performance in DCIX shares negatively impacted DSX earnings for long time, though impact was less pronounced, because share ownership was much smaller than now.

  • warmcamp by warmcamp Aug 8, 2014 5:48 PM Flag

    DCIX buys two ships investing $45M, obviously taken from share sale proceeds subscribed by DSX. It is also obvious that DSX/DCIX management likes vessel prices in containerships better than dry-bulk prices.

  • Reply to

    my poor timing

    by bruce_wintersteen Jul 28, 2014 2:20 PM
    warmcamp warmcamp Jul 28, 2014 7:27 PM Flag

    Actually, DCIX was always an "investment" for DSX. It was created (spun off) by DSX few years ago; probably, because management expected to make killing on resurgent containership market. It didn't really work, unless shareholder corpses can be considered as a definite proof of "killing". It is still unknown, especially after initial "killing", whether this dog can ever hunt, even with this new cash infusion.

    Regarding DSX itself, it is still better than many peers, especially in terms of downside protection, so your purchase has good chance to end up successfully, i.e. with gains. Market really expect better rates ahead, though DSX management will likely dissent, as usual, during tomorrow call. Good luck with your DSX shares and don't get greedy when you have, hopefully soon, capital gains on hands.

  • Reply to

    my poor timing

    by bruce_wintersteen Jul 28, 2014 2:20 PM
    warmcamp warmcamp Jul 28, 2014 6:07 PM Flag

    Obviously, management still hopes that cascading ends soon. Anyway, company journey to containerships was a big blunder; hopefully, honest mistake. DCIX got 100% dilution today, it is an almost recapitalization. On the other hand, it indicates that management is more optimistic on containerships. Probably, they don't like high, relative to BDI, vessel prices in dry-bulk, and decided to move cash to greener pastures.

  • Reply to

    my poor timing

    by bruce_wintersteen Jul 28, 2014 2:20 PM
    warmcamp warmcamp Jul 28, 2014 6:06 PM Flag

    I don't think that DCIX announcement will have too big impact on share price. I would rather see today's share price move as related to tomorrow's earning report.
    It is another story that you probably overpaid a bit, i..e paying ~$10/share was a bit high relevant to present shipping rates (BDI). However, BDI can change quickly and when/if it gets to mid-high 800s, present DSX share price would be more in line. Hopefully, low BDI is a short-term phenomenon and your relative over-payment will dissipate soon. After all, no one can guarantee that share price drops to $9 after the earning report.

  • Reply to

    I see new lows coming

    by chrisnoore2525 Jul 25, 2014 11:36 AM
    warmcamp warmcamp Jul 25, 2014 5:52 PM Flag

    P/E is a bit high, but it is Ok taking into account strong balance sheet and low P/B.
    The actual problem, imho, is that market hates small-caps at the moment and this stock is illiquid. The latter makes it vulnerable to ETF/mutual fund selling. I don't know whether GIFI is part of Russell; probably, it is. Every time Russell and all funds linked to it have sell-off (it happens often these days) it means automatic selling and even if it's only few thousand shares, it is enough to kill share price. Illiquid and so it suffers collateral damage. It is fun to own an illiquid stock when small-cap goes up and it is the opposite now.

  • Reply to

    Warmcamp, got a question, r u there?

    by ctixers Jul 15, 2014 7:25 AM
    warmcamp warmcamp Jul 24, 2014 6:51 PM Flag

    Hello! I didn't see your message and apologize for late reply.
    The reason is that I "am not there" and this makes me poorly qualified to answer your specific question. In my opinion, it will be better time to re-visit "small producers" or even "big producers" somewhere in 2016 or even in 2017. Needless to say, any forecast has big chance to be wrong and long-term assumptions are wrong, for sure :)

    Good luck with your investments and, hopefully, we will find each other on some "small producer" message board 2-3 years from now.

  • Probably, it makes sense to remind about specific industry point that can sometimes cause big difference between spot and charter. Sometimes, the reason comes from the fact that in this sector it usually costs more to idle assets (ships) than leasing them out for very little (with loss) money. It creates sometimes situations when ship owners, already losing money, become desperate and agree to lease ships for very low rate just because it is still better than mothballing.

    I believe most people around know why mothballing can cost more (i.e. bring more losses) than low-rate lease. If someone doesn't know then feel free to ask for more detailed explanations.

    Obviously, this situation gives charterers better bargaining position when they deal with money-losing ship owners and, conversely, it puts financially sound ship owners in better bargaining position allowing them to get better rates. Also, the same rationale (better lease for little than keep it idle) can explain why very low numbers go specifically to spot rates. Desperate ship owners can accept losing money on spot, consoling themselves with the point that spot rate varies quickly. Locking in long-term money-losing charter could be for them just unbearable, both emotionally and financially.

  • warmcamp warmcamp Jul 22, 2014 6:54 PM Flag

    Eriktrade, the more correct argument would be not that DSX is a "great company" or that balance sheet is the best. The major point regarding DSX is that this company doesn't lose money even in present challenging environment. It means that it still controls own future. Does it mean that any person must buy shares now? Not at all. DSX always presented good investment opportunity because it is a comparatively transparent company disclosing all numbers to retail investors. Outsiders can see the numbers and make own informed decision.

    Regardiing book value, it should be noted that it has little meaning in this sector. Essentially, it is money that companies paid for ships bought in different times. Shipping prices vary. Do some shipping stocks trade with premium to book, while others go with discount? It is the most natural situation, because they all trade with no correlation to book values.

    Present sector situation still carries good deal of investor optimism. Firstly, many people still expect near-term surge in rates. Secondly, overall market is very strong (better say, it looks very strong). This sentiment can distort share prices. Please note that DSX was always a laggard when it came to following positive near-term sentiment. In other words, DSX always (comparing to other sector plays) presented more protection on downside than reward to upside. It is changing actually, but long-term reputation is something that changes very slow.

  • warmcamp by warmcamp Jul 10, 2014 6:55 PM Flag

    The most recent purchase and chartering of new capsize may reveal company philosophy behind “perpetual preferred shares" issue few months ago. Both deals are about the same in size. Share sale proceeds were around $60M, while new ship was bought for $58M.

    New shares carry sizable dividend rate, 8.875%, but they don’t bring any other obligations to the company except "liquidation $25/par value", i.e. company basically got $60M with only obligation to pay around $5M in annual dividends. It differs from bond sale when principal must be re-paid.

    On the other hand, by signing new cape for about $25K/day, company makes about 13K-14K/day in free cash flow ($$ after all cash expenses). It makes for about the same $5M/year.

    It can be assumed that DSX planned new capesize purchase for some time, before the announcement, and possibly they arranged the preferred sale for specific purpose: buy new ship that could cover all dividend payments. If rates go up from now then company can make more than just justify the sale. Also, ships have “residual value”. When they're done (after 20-25 or more years of service) they are sold to scrap and cape can bring in good money; maybe $15-20M (I didn’t check scrap prices recently, and so I apologize for approximate numbers here).

    Needless to say that in case rates go down this share sale will be less attractive. Please note that dividend is not counted against earnings; it affects cash flow only. Also, dilution was small because company sold shares for $25/share, i.e. much higher than market price.

  • Reply to

    Trading Volume, July 3

    by rnomava Jul 6, 2014 3:59 PM
    warmcamp warmcamp Jul 7, 2014 5:30 PM Flag

    Copper demand is robust and warehouse storage numbers are very low. Also, rumors about Chinese break-down were slightly exaggerated, as it always happens with the rumors propagated around time of Chinese New year. Hint: China has vested interest to keep major commodity prices low.

    SCCO runs on positive momentum now and it can be sufficient to get in mid-to-high 30s around time of next earning release.

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