Sorry, I am not a TA expert. Looking at fundamentals I don't see it as oversold, though it doesn't mean anything for short-term.
I don't think that the message meant 2013. If it did then I apologize for misunderstanding it.
However, I still believe that the message implied that silver price was below $10/Oz in early 2000s, before last bull market, and PAAS price was about the same as it is now.
That's correct: silver price was lower when PAAS was under 10 before 2005. This "discrepancy" has an explanation, but it might be a bit lengthy and/or complicated.
It would be more concise to say that present share price is under pressure because of bad earning numbers. Company has negative earnings and, if dividend /buyback taken into consideration, negative cash flow. It is not an exception, all silver miners are in the same situation and so all of them have depressed share price, in many case similar to numbers predating last bull market.
Ladies and Gents,
It is the most peculiar fact that my alias continues living actively on this message board without my participation. First of all, I have to express my gratitude to distinguished participants remembering my past contributions and continuing referencing my thoughts and intentions. Please note, however, that your references cannot be considered as definitive proofs of my thoughts and intentions.
Also, I feel obliged to explain that I do not follow RBY and great majority of other gold miners at the moment. I do not have any gold mining stocks in my portfolio and, frankly, I am not looking right now to add them. It can be said that my investment interests and preferences are in different market sectors. It does not mean, by the way, any sinister implications to gold mining. I have to mention this only because it may help someone to cure own obsession and/or at least see that I am not obsessed with little details of gold mining such as linear forecasting and so on.
Please, accept my best wishes for happy and healthy holiday season, great New Year and success with all your investments that obviously includes this stock. I would also suggest that in case you have questions, you could go to one of the boards where I still post and talk to me there. Good luck.
PS: my best intention would be avoiding more posts to this thread or any other threads of this message board.
Also, it must be added here that my sincere wishes of success do not cover Sewells ans Piopuke. The reason is clear enough.
Frankly, I don't even know who is Armstrong. Regarding numbers, if 700-800 is taken as input then silver price can be deduced easily enough. 700-800 means extremely deep bear market; gold/silver ratio would go to 80s and silver price would be in 9s.
Predictions come and go and it is always possible to find guys predicting very strong uplift in gold price and the opposite group telling that gold goes to dumpster. As a rule, I don't look at both prognostications. It is very difficult to predict gold/silver price. It depends mainly on derivative markets and the latter is hardly accessible for any researcher. It is no surprise that most "gold gurus" use very primitive tools to assess/explain gold moves; they use what they can use. It makes every prognostication of this kind highly unreliable and often harmful to practical investment.
I think any mining stock should be analyzed, firstly, based on present metal price. It happens sometimes that good/bad prognostication for metal price is used as an excuse to disregard company-specific facts and numbers reflecting present situation. Shortly speaking, if someone is interested to make an investment then he must understand present company business in black-and-white terms and make investment decision based on it. General thoughts about future gold price can only complement the decision; it should never substitute it.
I don't think that the best time to buy comes when "things are at their bleakest". It would be correct to say that it is perfect if you buy when it's the bleakest and, voila, next day things start improving. That would be the best, but unfortunately, it includes the second part (improving) which timing is unknown. There are also situations when everything looks already the bleakest and still tomorrow comes and situation continues deteriorating.
In my opinion, the best way to buy (i.e. invest) is to do it based on fundamentals, assuming that you consider to invest for long time. In this respect, one should find at least some fundamentals supporting the buying proposal. Yes, it is true, that things can change suddenly and fundamental picture can be deceptive and even the most anti-fundamental buy can yield the best results and so on. That's all true, but still buying based on fundamentals (i.e. on numbers and facts) has better chance to succeed, imho.
Yes, management had real chance to look like geniuses now, if they would keep the hedge. As it stands now, silver price doesn't leave any room for profitable silver mining. It is a race for survival. It is possible that silver miners have at least 1-2 years ahead of low silver prices. Hopefully, management will admit reality and re-consider dividend and production policies.
The problem with this strategy is that capital investment cannot be stopped. Check last quarter earning release. Company spent $26M on ongoing capex, i.e. capital needed to support existing operations. That's amount that cannot be spared.
Other capital expenses had been cut to the bone temporarily. Company spent meager $3M on Colorada and Dolores expansion in Q3. It will not be the same in Q4. They plan to spend $18M in Q4 and project development (Colorada, Dolores) will require higher amounts in 2015.
So far, silver price behaves in the most disappointing fashion and if company really spends cash on buyback and/or continues to pay fat dividend, then it may backfire later. No one knows, actually, how long bear market will continue. PAAS management does not know it too. They could plan capital moves taking into account this lack of visibility.
PAAS was lucky that bear market beginning caught them with huge hoard of cash on hands; it was, by the way, a pure coinsidence, result of Navidad stoppage. This cash could be used to make business stronger when bear ends. It would be disappointing if company wastes this luck.
Honolulu! It is terrific to talk to you again.
I had to go through your messages trying to find a place to reply. I didn't post on EXK board for more than a year, before the recent message, and, frankly speaking, I didn't want to post there again. Someone has very thin skin over there :) and taking into account certain losses in share price... it would be too cruel :). Needless to say, I am not looking for EXK.
So I went further and, probably, next message was from RBY board. At least, Johnny participated in the thread. Send my best regards to him, please. Again, RBY is not a place where I would like to post often :)
Hopefully, this place, MUX board, fits a bit better for the reply. Firstly, I am not looking for PM miners now. The whole market looks full of interesting plays. Take oil sector, for example, it is very challenging now. I hope you are busy too and making lot of good trades. Good luck with your MUX purchase and maybe I will join you in PM trades some day in future.
Unfortunately, "so-so assets" continue to prove themselves as too important factor. This thread and accompanying discussions had place in spring 2013, about time when PM bear market just started in earnest. It should be noted that for long time EXK performed better than it could be expected based on silver price alone. Again, I tend to believe that "good management" was a factor behind it.
In any case, good management cannot fix silver price and it cannot convert so-so assets to first class. Share price was about $4, after initial bear market shock. It is under $2 now, because bear market shocks come again and again and their impact is accumulated.
Please, do not consider this message as an attack and accept my best wishes regarding your EXK and other investments. Also, just in case someone gets nervous :), I don't plan to start posting on this board in any consistent way. Good luck.
Deflation is an artificial term; it is used, mostly, as an euphemism, masking government inability or lack of desire to follow free-market policies. Oil price goes down now because of trivial oversupply, it has nothing to do with "deflation", though ironically it reflects fact that most of world oil is produced in countries far away from market economy.
Gold production cost goes down now because of lower oil (fuel) price. Also, gold producers make efforts to cut costs, e.g. by high-grading or cutting exploration expenses. It is temporary measures, base costs (labor, supply, etc.) don't go down and, obviously enough, taxes and royalties do not go down too; they present major part of actual costs.
Finally, gold price is not defined by gold production cost, not even in long term. It is one of basic differences between gold and other commodities.
Oil (i.e. fuel) is not a part of shipper's operating expenses, if you talk about shipping company like DSX. Fuel expense is carried by charterer, ship owner doesn't pay anything. It can be speculated that cheap oil is still good because it leaves more money in charterer's pockets thus making it kinder and so it can share few bucks with ship owner. You see, it doesn't sound too business-like and even if it plays some role then it is small one.
It can be assumed, in more serious way, that low oil price is beneficial to China, because it is a big oil importer. It seems to be more serious. Most of dry-bulk cargoes goes to China and so strength or weakness in Chinese economy is the main factor behind dry-bulk shipper fortunes.
I meant average selling silver price for Q3 comparing to present silver price. Many silver companies already reported earnings and their releases included the number. For example, CDE posted $19.46, HL posted $18.53, EXK - $18.78, AG - 19.10, etc.
By the way, average LME spot price was $19.74; it is also mentioned in some releases. Present LME silver price is $15.73. It is about 20% lower. Yes, it is too early to say whether average LME price for Q4 will be higher or lower than $15.73. However, Q4 is already half done, i.e. present price provides good estimate.
Trading bulk grain trade could present you with simple fact that Valemax ships won't be used for grain trade. Ultra-big ships are good for very few, very bulky routes. The rest goes to more flexible vehicles.
Saying it in general, this world will always have room for both globalization and specialization.
I think that market will definitely react to any dividend-related news, cut or cancel. Most of trading is computer-based and so it is driven (programmed by) formal criteria. Dividend numbers are on of them.
There are different ways how to calculate "all-in cost". Initially, when this term was introduced couple years ago, the idea was to get rid off blatant misrepresentations included in previously used "cash cost" and present something actually reflecting real cost of doing business.
It was a noble idea, but, naturally enough miners, started to "adopt" this term making it less and less correlated with real cost. It is quite possible that in few more years "all-in cost" will become no better than "cash cost", if used for serious investment purposes.
Regarding earning estimates, it would have to be taken as success if PAAS could be able to make 2-3 cents as it's written in present analyst estimates. Why? Read preceding earning release and see numbers there. Anyway, silver price is currently more than 20% lower than it was in Q3. It makes Q3 earnings awfully obsolete, just in case 2-3 cents could be perceived as a great number.
In general, when you estimate stock value it makes sense to base it on stock/company fundamentals, not on perception of message board postings. 2-3 message board posters can be bearish or bullish on stock price and, often enough, it has nothing to do with real factors affecting the same price.
PAAS is substantially stronger than CDE; balance sheet, cash, etc. It means that PAAS holders could start worry about dropping to $3 when CDE would be already in pennies. Needless to say, drop to $3 is not the only risk here. If it drops to e.g. $6-7; it's still painful.