Ladies and Gents,
Your discussion of relevant mining issues is very interesting and valuable for the purpose of learning various aspects of mining exploration business. Personally, I was able to learn few things already by reading this board during last few days. However, do not expect to decide the winner here by using commonsense or logical conviction.
In practical (aka market) terms, the winner will be likely decided by BCSC. It would be extremely strange if this organization let official statements like “no valid mineral resources” or “misleading press-releases” (for almost two years!?) to go unnoticed and/or unconfirmed by market regulators. In my opinion, BCSC will get involved (or it is already involved) and will likely force some or all parties in this story to make necessary corrections
Are you Ok, cruz? Agnico produces 300+KOz every quarter, while your dear Brigus struggles to make 100 KOz per year. The difference in profit margins is even more impressive.
It is not surprising (your posts about Brigus, etc. are good indications) that you always vote for D party and support O more than anyone. You and your ilk are the main reason why this country goes to dumpster. Sure, of course, you sold all PVG shares before dump and then bought a bunch exactly at the lowest price. Ha-ha-ha.
As far as I know, SEC doesn’t recognize any resource, indicated or inferred. It seems that company wanted to have feasibility study too much and rushed consultants to make it indicated (yes, inferred cannot be used for feasibility). They could probably take humbler path and have PEA with inferred.
As of now this “probable reserve” creates legal troubles. These law firms could never consider legal action if company would not already declare reserves and feasibility.
If I remember correctly, Yound-Davidson doesn’t have any high-grade veins. It is a big low-grade (by underground standards) disseminated deposit. Long-hole is the only way to make it economical and even this is questionable with current gold price. It would be strange if VOK could be best exploited by the same method.
Long-hole stoping can exploit relatively low-grade deposits with average grade in, let say, 5-7 g/ton range. In some very favorable cases it could go down, below 5 g/ton, but I don’t think it’s applicable here. I would expect higher-than-average requirement, because VOK doesn’t look as a typical long-hole candidate.
Cut-and-fill would require higher grade, let say, 8-10 g/ton range for VOK. Please forgive me for any inaccuracies and ambiguities; it is virtually impossible to give exact numbers. Also, keep in mind that required minimum grade depends on gold price. If gold goes higher than it is now, then grades could go lower.
I guess your message is linked to another thread mentioning IAG’s low P/S ratio. Let me repeat, just to avoid confusion, that in my opinion low ratio is caused here by lingering market perception of this company as an inefficient producer. In other words, market could be wrong here (good wishes, eh :).
In more common case, low P/S ratio really reflects problems with efficiency, i.e. it means that companies have low profit margins or no profits at all. It should be noted that low P/S ratio also means upward potential in case gold price goes up strongly and quickly and stocks from your list could be likely great performers in this best-case scenario.
Other than consideration above I cannot add much; sorry about this. AU and HMY have sizable SA exposure and I don’t analyze investment opportunities beyond this point. SA means, in general, challenging mineral assets (high-cost old and deep mines), crumbling infrastructure and awful geopolitics. ANV invested awful lot of money in Hycroft with little to show so far (except over-hyped stock price few years ago). Again, it might be a great turnaround stock in case gold goes up strongly.
I don’t think that stocks above provide the same level of safety comparing with IAG and few others (mentioned in the other thread). Again, safety is not mandatory; its relevance depends on future market development.
IAG has limited exposure to oil. It gets most energy from hydroelectric sources (Quebec and Suriname). If I remember correctly (read it long time ago), Essakane runs on diesel, though company has plans connecting to power grid (also hydroelectric).
My dear man, you likely lost too much money on this stock… By the way, based on your stupid demeanor, I would say that you deserved it.
Please be assured that I can decide myself where and what to post, loser.
Sorry, sygnett, you seem to be unfamiliar with legal proceedings of this and other kind. Clients do not pay to lawyers if latter have their pay on contingency basis (security class-actions proceed exactly this way). It means that lawyers must win the case (or at least get monetary settlement) to make money and recoup expenses. If they lose the case then they don’t get paid at all while carrying all court expenses. Hopefully, you can see now that lawyers cannot afford starting openly losing cases.
Sygnett, you try to unlock the door that is already wide open. Everyone knows that lawyers look for money. It is not the issue here. The issue is whether their desire for money could affect the company.
By the way, lawyers must look for money, because their clients do not pay any fees, i.e. it is a risk-free endeavor for the clients, firstly.
Hey, cruz. It seems that you already had some experience with PVG. At least someone wrote following on August 18 on this board, using one of your aliases: “just recently got 3.5K shares of PVG, they got a couple of nice properties in Canada, and they got great management JMO”.
Let see now, it was week-end on August 18, and PVG closed before it at $8.97. Today, it is closed at $3.36. These prices do not really indicate “great management”, “nice properties” or “great CEO”. Please note PVG drop happened disregarding to gold sector problems.
By the way, it is a bit strange that your promotional message didn’t mention anything about big news (negative news) that hit the company just today (and few more before). Listen cruz, what if someone follows your promotional piece? Will you feel Ok that you didn’t disclose important info to that innocent person?
It is my impression that "misstatement of mineral reserves" would be the main legal point. Other things like dealing with contractors, disclosure, etc. could be subordinate only. In other words, it is possible that lawyers see the opportunity: if company would have to re-state mineral reserves or admit that it should be done in future then lawyers could have the case.
That’s probably first time when U.S.-based legal firms decide to prosecute Canadian gold exploration company. It can set relevant precedent for the industry. U.S. securities laws provide better conditions for prosecution than in Canada; that was likely the reason why U.S. lawyers didn’t bother before with mining stocks.
It seems that situation changes. Maybe, lawyers have hopes to litigate case in U.S. courts. I am unsure whether these courts can have jurisdiction over the case. If case goes to Canadian courts then settlement could be very light. In other words, jurisdiction is the main (monetary) issue here.
If I understand correctly (didn’t look at this stock before in details) company posted mineral reserve numbers before and, probably, lawyers could argue that it makes the case relevant to U.S. securities laws. The latter do not care about “mineral resources”, while “mineral reserves” is established regulatory term in U.S. (both terms are regulatory in Canada).
LME copper stocks have dropped below 500 KT; almost 30% decline since June top. World daily copper consumption is about 50 KT. Another 30% down in warehouse stocks and “peak copper” articles could appear again, like they were common 5-6 years ago.
In true long term, we are all dead and America is not an exception. It will be studied, if humanity doesn’t go extinct, in future as another perfect example that humans can destroy any system. It was a good try, by Founders, to make it perfect and it lasted more than 200 years. Barbarians are coming; they are already in control. By the way, not all of them belong to “minorities”.
After all, Kevin, we live through adversities to get more experience and few changes in American life, even if negative, could supply lot of interesting experience for brainwashed (by fat life and free education) public. Personally, I have already lived through complete socialism, true hyper-inflation, U.S. urban survival and fat American suburbia. Is it enough? Maybe, not.
Shortly speaking, there is only one defense against socialism: free will of people but they usually understand it only after they go through socialism including complete suppression of this will. Speaking in more cynical ways: when handouts end (no more sources for the robbery), people get hungry and remind that in older times they had freedom to think and work and live happily without handouts.
Please, be assured, by the way, that considerations above have no practical relations to investments, gold price, etc.
Jklemming, in my opinion, “better gold stocks” means combination of two qualities. Firstly, it is upside potential, if gold price goes up (this is quite ordinary thing, common to many stocks in the sector) and, secondly, it is comparative safety in case gold price doesn’t go up (this is more restrictive feature). The second restriction leaves few stocks in the list, e.g. in alphabetical order: GG, EGO, IAG, NGD. This list is not complete; some other stocks could be added, e.g. AGI or AUY.
Please note that IAG has the strongest upside potential in the list; its price-to-sales ratio is much lower; likely, the lowest among peers (comparatively safe gold stocks). The reason is that market discounted this stock heavily during last 1-2 years probably assuming that this is hopelessly high-cost producer. It came as certain surprise that IAG was able to withstand currently hostile gold environment by keeping operations profitable. It is able to keep profits (costs) on almost the same level as other companies in the list that were long considered as bona-fide low-cost producers.
This change of tune (from high to low cost) still goes largely unnoticed, imho, because the whole sector is under uniformly bad pressure. When situation changes, hopefully, and if management keeps doing good work (so far they do it) then IAG stock can be due for upside re-valuation.
I believe you see that considerations above are relatively complex. If market goes in simpler way, e.g. strong gold drop or rise then these considerations are not worth much. If gold drops a lot then everything goes down and if gold goes up strongly and quickly then it will be the most beaten stocks, currently on brink of bankruptcy, that would go up the most.
Statistically speaking, looking, your chance to see share price doubling before Thanksgiving is infinitely small. At the same time, chance to see the same price halving during the same period is good enough. It’s likely less than 50% because timing is too tight. If you would be kind to add few months, e.g. until the end of Q1 2014, then halving chance becomes better than 50%.
Your recent straw (Madsen sale) is weak because it is about impossible to find a buyer (entity willing to pay cash) for Madsen in this market. It is still possible to find someone willing to take care of project expenses; i.e. taking ownership stake for 100% commitment to spend money there and continue project development. However, it is not something that could help to solve cash crunch in near-term.
Frankly, I don’t see your point about mega players. In my opinion, most market events are result of many factors, sometimes quite independent.
Anyway, there are various points of views about causes of the PM sector crisis, but the main thing is fact on hands; i.e. the crisis has happened and investors have to deal with it.
Tigermike, generally speaking, it is not my business to tell people whether they should buy, sell or whatever. Every investor is entitled to make own decision what to do with own money. It is better, in general again, when this decision is informed, i.e. done after studying relevant information. That’s it. Hopefully, my messages sometimes supply this information and, obviously, every reader has own criteria what to read.
Regarding Schiff, he always says that gold goes up. For example, he says it now and he said the same half year ago before April drop.
Can gold drop below 1200? Sure, it can. It is stock market; it can be anything here. Again, I think that stock investment cases should be primarily analyzed based on present situation, i.e. more specifically now for 1300s gold, not for 1500 or below 1200. If gold drops or rises to any of these levels then it will be time to analyze again. Please note that sound analysis of present situation promises certain cushion in case gold price deviates from present level.
Good luck with your first buy.