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Southern Copper Corp. Message Board

warmcamp 11 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: Oct 15, 2003
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  • warmcamp warmcamp Apr 12, 2015 7:36 PM Flag

    It seems to me that company will either sell/reduce Bongara interest (probably, to Peruvian partner) or dilute at this level (it would be about 20% dilution). Both scenarios look doable, so I don't think that bankruptcy is a real threat at this point.

  • warmcamp warmcamp Apr 16, 2015 6:02 PM Flag

    I think that zinc is more prized asset at this economic juncture and this company has financial problems. Which asset would you prefer to pick up if you, prospective provider of new funds, have choice?

    Yes, it is just a guess, but I think that chances for possible financing go following: 1. Dilution 2. Bongara deal 3. Hamilton deal. By the way, I think that it would be better for present shareholders to have it in backward order, but shareholders never decide.

  • Reply to

    Silver continues to tank

    by arizona_guy77 Apr 22, 2015 11:42 AM
    warmcamp warmcamp Apr 22, 2015 6:15 PM Flag

    Probably, your questions were rhetorical. Please, accept my apologies if they were not.
    In case it is not rhetorical, stock longevity can be better assessed through financials. The first step is to check balance sheet (net cash position) and cash flow statement (cash burn rate). Further analysis can take into account future developments, because financial numbers are not static.

    In this respect, PAAS has very strong financials, as you definitely know it already. If company cancels dividend then it would be able to go without any troubles for 2-3 years just using present cash hoard. If it doesn't cancel dividend, then it has credit line, recently arranged, that provides big and cheap funds (only 3-4% interest). It can be asserted that PAAS is one of the strongest, financially, PM stocks at the moment.

    In other words, this stock is not in financial jeopardy and it creates some room. If you already have shares and you decide to sell, by any reason, then you can still do it on your own terms, i.e. you could wait for a short-term rebound and sell for slightly better price. it is not warranted, but it has chances; stocks always go up and down.

    If you don't want to sell shares then share price is less important now and you could wait for sector rebound. Sooner or later PM sector will recover; nothing goes down all times on market. Obvious enough that exact timing is hardly predictable. At least, Chapter 11 is not a threat; so you could always count on future recovery.

    Please, don't take my message as too pessimistic. It is not. Good luck with your investment.

  • Reply to

    Silver continues to tank

    by arizona_guy77 Apr 22, 2015 11:42 AM
    warmcamp warmcamp Apr 23, 2015 5:52 PM Flag

    Firstly, substantial part of silver supply comes from non-silver miners, producing silver as sub-product. They don't care too much about silver market.

    Secondly, silver supply exceeds "non-investment" demand that includes industrial usages, jewelry, silverware, etc. The gap between supply and non-investment demand is closed by "investment" demand. It means people and entities buying silver for hoarding; they don't "consume" it. This investment demand is fickle and lack of it creates oversupply of silver market.

    In any case, silver follows gold, because of this "investment" factor. Silver is always considered as gold's little sibling, in investment terms, and silver miners cannot get out of bear market as long as gold is in bear market.

    Probably, you heard all of this already. I repeat these points only because your message raises these issues. It is good, imho, when message board discusses serious topics.

  • warmcamp warmcamp Apr 26, 2015 9:32 AM Flag

    Good morning, Honolulu.
    I appreciate your opinion, but I am not quite sure that it is shared by other parties. If anyone has questions then it can be done in other places. As it was mentioned, I still post on other message boards, and adding fire to this place is not something I am looking for.

    PS: I apologize for this intrusion, but it seems to me that my alias lived on this board for too long, without my
    participation. Hopefully, few people here could grow up at last.
    Good luck with your investments, anyway.

  • Why is PAAS the strongest silver miner around? In good times, the comparison would have to be based more on mining-related issues: which company has the best mines. In bad times, as they are now, all mines have problems, profit is either too small or doesn't exist at all. The comparison would have to be based more on financial issues: which company has the strongest balance sheet that allows continuing running and, maybe, even buying some depressed assets on side.

    In this respect, PAAS has the strongest balance, as of end of 2014: cash position is $330M, total debt is $60M. It means that net cash position is good $270M. Let see how other silver miners go in this category (net cash position): HL: $-290M (yes, it is negative); CDE: $-210M (negative too); AG $-40M (again, negative); EXK: $3M (at least, it is positive); TAHO: $30M (not too bad, but still not PAAS number).
    What else? Sorry, if I missed something.

    Financials say it: clear leadership position; competition is not even close. Definitely, real financial analysis must go further, see details behind headline numbers. However, the difference between PAAS and peer financials is too big. Even if the further analysis can find more negatives in PAAS and more positives in competition, it will not change the final verdict.

    Hopefully, everyone understands that the points above do not mean that PAAS is a crying buy opportunity. It meant mostly that other silver stocks are not worth much in present silver market conditions. PAAS could be still considered as an "investment grade"; other stocks look too close to "junk" category.

  • Reply to

    Mt. Hamilton Deal

    by augustusgloop Jun 11, 2015 9:20 AM
    warmcamp warmcamp Jun 11, 2015 7:33 PM Flag

    I think it is a good deal and it creates interesting opportunity here. Certainly, XPL deserves consideration and analysis now. Zinc price may have some problems in short-term, because of Chinese slowdown. However, zinc cycle will likely enter boom period in mid-term.

    Hopefully, this stock will see better times ahead. Gold part of the story was tough, but, it seems, this company went out better than many peers.

  • Reply to

    Why the big drop on Friday?

    by tedallinnby76 Jun 20, 2015 4:05 PM
    warmcamp warmcamp Jun 20, 2015 5:15 PM Flag

    First of all, it was an option expiration day. Many stocks become volatile on such days.
    Also, the stock rose strongly right before the drop; it happened also without news.
    In general, PM stocks are trading vehicles now; they can move fast and strong without any news.
    Also, do not consider it as offense, but using margins, especially in this sector now, is a very risky idea. Market is always unstable and this sector cannot rely on support from fundamentals.

  • Reply to

    Why the big drop on Friday?

    by tedallinnby76 Jun 20, 2015 4:05 PM
    warmcamp warmcamp Jun 21, 2015 9:15 AM Flag

    You know, ted, I suspect that your investment criteria is not the same as ones I use. That's all right, every person is unique.
    However, it is hard for me to accept that "PAAS is a steal..." is kind of fact. Frankly speaking, I would not take it as "fact" for any stock :). Don't take it personal and hope you will make it. At the same time, in case your investment record is not too long, try to research fundamentals. If any "facts" exist in stock investment business, then they used to come from fundamental side, not from our attitudes and demeanor.

  • Reply to

    Greek Default imminent.

    by dj_rocks_it Jun 28, 2015 4:21 PM
    warmcamp warmcamp Jun 30, 2015 8:39 PM Flag

    Gold and silver are contrarian indicators of US economy. As long as US economy moves forward, PM situation will likely stay bleak.

  • Reply to

    10 year low for paas

    by esyslpr Jul 4, 2015 7:04 AM

    Sure, it is not easy. Most silver miners lose money in big way at present silver prices. Buying a stock means rolling a dice. it has nothing to do with fundamentals. If Chinese crisis accelerates or Japan shows weakness, then buying commodities (any variety) is not a sound idea.

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