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Allergan plc Message Board

warnbeeb 43 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 2, 2015 11:21 AM Member since: Apr 8, 1998
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  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Oct 2, 2015 11:21 AM Flag

    QUAD has gone down essentially 4 days out of 5 for 6 mos. Almost every day it goes down...again....again...I'm a fairly long term shareholder who has dripped his dividends since day one..even still I am down serious change. I've thought the Quadracci Family runs this company to throw off dividend income and the last thing they want to do is cut the dividend. They are free cash flow fanatics. FCF is more important than earnings.
    I'm not selling, but believe the dividend is going to by cut 50-80% soon. The dividend is going to .60 at least.....maybe .40. It's the only reason I can see this unrelenting selling. Short sellers don' like to pay dividends, but right now they are cleaning up.

  • Reply to

    Huge reversal today?

    by warnbeeb Sep 28, 2015 2:00 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Sep 28, 2015 2:59 PM Flag

    I do think the Quad...Family wants that dividend however and believe it is sacrosanct. Again....don't be surprised if I am punished for that. LOL.

  • Reply to

    Huge reversal today?

    by warnbeeb Sep 28, 2015 2:00 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Sep 28, 2015 2:58 PM Flag

    My fault....I thought optimistically...therefore, Mr. Market needs to punish me.

  • Closed Friday at$12.80. Opened this morning at $12.76 and cratered down t $ as bounced back up to $2.78. Not huge volume however.
    For technicians this could be a big time bottom reversal. If tomorrow is up.....I could see a rebound.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Sep 28, 2015 11:35 AM Flag

    I just bought some last week under $6. I'm guessing I'll have to again...under $5 which I'm pretty sure it's heading. If it goes towards the $4' again.

    Yes, MT is only about 6% of the world's steel production but it is the largest in the world and it mines it's own ore so it will survive before those steel companies that have to buy their ore from the market.

    MT can just slow down, close (temporarily) some plants/mills/mines and just wait this out. Their balance sheet is solid. Positive free cash flow. They could eliminate their dividend and that would also be good. Nobody owns MT for income anymore. They are selling at a historical low to book value and sales.

    I'm not happy, but honestly, not surprised. MT will still be around in 5 years...10 years.

    Buy now...or pretty soon and hold the'll make money if you're patient.

  • Reply to

    nice % gain in MT coming

    by munhoi Sep 25, 2015 2:17 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Sep 25, 2015 2:50 PM Flag

    It's even cheaper than the last time I bought MT. Now it's 1/4 of book value and slightly more than 1/10th of sales. 4 times free cash flow.

    The last time I bought MT all these metrics were higher. Bought at around $10 and sold around $14. Haven't been following her much but it showed up again on a screen I like to run on stocks that are selling at a huge discount to book and sales. I know many of their sales metrics are going lower so the 4 x FCF is a little misleading...however by my criteria selling below 10x FCF is a bargain.

    MT is worth taking a position in today even as you need to be prepared to add if it keeps heading lower....which it appears to want to do. Nobody can pick the real bottom, but I'm sure it's closer than we think.

  • Reply to

    How safe is this dividend?

    by thirdpartyoperator Sep 14, 2015 12:19 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Sep 23, 2015 2:06 PM Flag

    QUAD is a very closely held/insider owned company. They worship that dividend. I've owned the stock for awhile and have DRIPPED my dividends into new shares all along. I'm down. That being said, I think the dividend is the absolute last thing this BOD will sacrifice.
    JMHO, but I think the dividend is going to hang around awhile longer.
    I think the market will rally over the next several months and QUAD will get back into the upper teens which is the best I can hope for this stock.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Sep 23, 2015 1:43 PM Flag

    You just don't get it. COP is selling non-core assets and reducing Cap-ex and reducing payroll to hoard cash as best they can. They are NOT SELLING assets that make up the vast bulk of their long term income stream. They are getting they need to. When the oil market recovers...and it year most likely....but even if it's 2 or 3....they still will pay the dividend and maintain their capital base. When it gets better they will make gobs of money...much more than they did in the last cycle. COP will be over $100 in 3-5 yrs. I guarantee it.

  • Reply to

    awfully cheap price to cash flow

    by alexorjona Sep 11, 2015 11:47 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Sep 22, 2015 4:30 PM Flag

    Agriculture based stocks are going to be the biggest winners of the next generation.

  • Reply to

    awfully cheap price to cash flow

    by alexorjona Sep 11, 2015 11:47 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Sep 22, 2015 4:30 PM Flag

    For long term investors MOS is an incredible buy. You can wait, I agree it's not going up anytime soon, but it is a terrific company with a bright long term future. It is not going anywhere. I own it, I've owned it for awhile and so I'm sitting on a paper loss of some magnitude...but selling it down here is stupid. Maybe you don't buy....but don't sell it now. Too late. It's much, much closer to a bottom and it will be a $60 stock in 3-5 yrs. I could see over $100 in 5-7.

  • Reply to

    52 wk low

    by luckkels Sep 16, 2015 11:11 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Sep 18, 2015 8:54 AM Flag

    Just started a position 3 days ago at the 52 week low. I was gonna wait until after the Fed decision but when it dipped blow $18 I started my position. Jeffery Gundlach is the new bond king. I'll hold and DRIP these shares in my retirement acct. I don't expect to sell this for a good long time. I don't hold many bond funds/etfs. I have a some muni's and this along with a utility fund. All for income. All are paying dramatically higher than historical rates. The rest of my income producers are common stocks.
    I think I'll be OK for some cap. gains (which...I don't expect to harvest anytime soon) but mostly, I think, these dividends will be maintained. Looks like DSL will keep this current rate intact....
    I am closer to retirement than not and mostly an income/value investor. Not a lot of growth stocks in my portfolio.

  • Reply to

    FSYS- Asset stripped by Westport & Rothschild.

    by maxpetar Sep 11, 2015 12:24 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Sep 15, 2015 1:40 PM Flag

    Look at FSYS's balance sheet. Yes, no debt. But cash is dwindling. Sales are dropping and no end in sight. Losses are mounting. The company, the market cap, the stock price are all dropping. WPRT is laden with debt. No cash and they too are losing money on dropping sales. Both companies are continuing to go South.
    The problem is: their NOT GROWING. When I bought FSYS I was betting that LNG engines for cars...for cars....was going to grow. It isn't. WPRT's market for truck NG engines is best.

    Electric and hybrid gas/electric cars are growing. NG trucks and buses is not. There are even electric buses now...see BYDDY...Chinese co. that makes electric buses and taxis. Now Porsche and Mercedes Benz are coming out with 100% electric cars in a couple years. None of them are expanding NG engine cars. They're hyping gas/electric hybrids or all electric. Nobody is pushing NG cars. Nobody.

    I kept thinking there would be some huge oil conflagulation that would spike NG engines. But instead, oil prices have collapsed. Alternative fuel (especially carbon based fuel) are dead right now.

    WPRT is getting a deal here. They're getting FSYS's cash. All FSYS gets is an umbrella to protect them for the time being. The NG car engine business is much more desperate than the NG truck/bus engine business. The only thing going for FSYS is the fueling station equipment they make and sell. That helps WPRT a little. But there's much more competition for refueling equipment than engines so that moat is narrow and shallow.

    Uncombined, both companies were nearing room temperature. FSYS could not afford another couple quarters like the last 2 years. WPRT is/was closer to death spiral. Together they have a reprieve...that's all. Another year or two they can limp along together waiting/hoping for that huge oil market disaster....i.e WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST THAT CUTS OFF OIL....that will demand a quick change to NG.

    If that happens XOM & maybe CHK are smarter plays.

  • Reply to

    FSYS- Asset stripped by Westport & Rothschild.

    by maxpetar Sep 11, 2015 12:24 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Sep 14, 2015 10:55 AM Flag

    If you multiply a negative times a negative you get a positive...but not in this case. They are not multiplying...they're adding. When you combine two negatives you get an even bigger negative.

  • Reply to


    by wildbeenyheeth Sep 11, 2015 11:10 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Sep 11, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    Agree. Can' even short them. No shares to short. Yes, there could be a squeeze, but not without some good news.....which isn't happening. 1-2 years....Westport Fuel Systems will be bankrupt.

  • WPRT is at $3.50 today up about .20 in past 2 days. FSYS which is worth 2.129 shares of WPRT is down almost that much. FSYS should be trading around $7.45.
    Either WPRT is going to go down 20-30% because FSYS is currently at $6.36 which = $2.98/sh for WPRT.

    They both can't be right.

    Either one should be buying FSYS hand over fist or shorting WPRT.

    It can't be arbitrage because if it were they would be doing what I just said above.

  • So WPRT is $3.41 today which should make FSYS somewhere around somewhere around $7.15/sh today if it's 2.1 shares/FSYS share. WPRT is up 3.3% today. Why is FSYS down 2.9%?

    There's something smelly here. If this deal is real then the market is saying WPRT is way overvalued and should be somewhere around $3/share....i.e 2.1 x $3 = $6.30 which is right around FSYS's current price.

    Either you should be long FSYS or short WPRT......or something is really wrong. Looks like market is shorting FSYS in anticipation of a WPRT collapse.

  • Reply to

    Looks like a good deal

    by mopsu28 Sep 1, 2015 10:12 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Sep 1, 2015 12:04 PM Flag

    I'm a long term suffering FSYS shareholder. I made a little on a quick short of WPRT a few yrs back, but otherwise never was big on WPRT. I thînk at current price both shares are undervalued with no near term likelihood of a significant rebound. This is good for both companies in the long term. Near term, better for FSYS. At least I get something in return for my shares even and I don't see any catalyst to raise WPRT any time soon.
    I'm thinking the combined companies will eventually be more attractive to even a bigger buyer. Whether it get a big automaker like F, TTM, Fiat.....or big industrial like UTX, Borg Warner.....someone in the parts, suppliers industry...who knows. FSYS's real asset is the fueling systems it sells...not necessarily the engines. I do believe that nat gas fueling of trucks and cars will still happen. The electric car is still further away" they aren't big and rugged enough and can't go far on a charge and take too long to recharge.
    I'll hold onto my new WpRT shares. No need to sell it waaaaay down here.
    It's still a ways away, but nat gas engines WILL prevail in time. Right now these shares are cheap call options with no expiration date on the industry.

  • Reply to

    My first target here is 14 and change

    by madtradder666 May 12, 2015 6:04 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Aug 25, 2015 4:06 PM Flag

    Well, here it is ...sub $14 today. Dividend is now 8%. Goes ex in a week or so. That means another .30 haircut coming...the it will be retuned to shareholder.

    This is getting obscene. Not sure whether this is an overreaction or harbinger of a serious divided cut and more sinking into oblivion.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Aug 24, 2015 3:46 PM Flag

    With oil this cheap nobody makes money. The sovereigns, like the Saudis cannot run their countries with oil this low. If the price doesn't rebound there will be serious turmoil somewhere in the world. Someone...a Putin?....might go crazy and start some sort of military will see the price go up.

    I'm not predicting it so much as expecting something happen if oil stays down here for months and months.

  • Reply to

    Sell RRD and buy QUAD

    by warnbeeb Aug 5, 2015 9:59 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Aug 19, 2015 10:29 AM Flag

    The way I look at QUAD is that it is closely held and the insiders regard the dividend as sacrosanct. They want that dividend. They are cash flow wh_ores and their main goal is to maintain and grow cash flow to keep the dividends glowing. So good.
    I own QUAD as a bond proxy. This is not a growth company. It's an income producing investment.

288.00+5.65(+2.00%)Oct 2 4:01 PMEDT