Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Microsoft Corporation Message Board

warnbeeb 32 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 27, 2015 12:02 PM Member since: Apr 8, 1998
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    So .9000 seems to be holding

    by yinkeyc Jun 26, 2015 2:24 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 27, 2015 12:02 PM Flag

    Not a problem. I too will be interested in why 3 mil. shares trade all at once. I'm more inclined it was a "buy me out" vs a "I want in" deal.
    Hope it works out.

  • Reply to

    So .9000 seems to be holding

    by yinkeyc Jun 26, 2015 2:24 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 27, 2015 10:25 AM Flag

    My interest is purely observational. I took a flier on a quick trade. I missed it. That morning it jumped .30 cents or so was my chance. It would have been a tiny profit. I was hoping that a 25% move in one day would draw in the public who just saw NOR pop up on a "biggest % gainers" screen and try to ride a quick ride back to $2. Alas...the stock got dumped just as fast. That told me that smarter, more nimble money than mine was on top of this stock. I believe there is some really, really bad news on the horizon. This reminds me of how some of the coal stocks trade. Think Kodak...I got stuck in that one too.
    I think NOR is heading lower and into oblivion. It doesn't go under $1 because of bad luck...or investor misunderstanding. It goes there because the big guys who know what they're doing are trying to profit off it's demise.
    This is a day trading stock now. It's not investable IMHO.
    GLTU.

  • Reply to

    So .9000 seems to be holding

    by yinkeyc Jun 26, 2015 2:24 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 26, 2015 2:54 PM Flag

    At the risk of belaboring the obvious....yeah...it's holding for now. Look at the chart. Every piece of news that's come out since Apollo sold out has resulted in a little bump followed by more selling. It's right at it's 52 week, multi year low. Bottoms are made over time. Not price. IMHO, this ain't the bottom. The bad news. The really bad news hasn't come out yet.

  • Reply to

    what about the R/S

    by fwilder81 Jun 25, 2015 3:03 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 26, 2015 1:41 PM Flag

    There will be roughly 9.5 million shares outstanding after the split at somewhere around $6.50 to $7/sh...depending on the price at the time.
    Reverse splits rarely help small, little followed companies that have cratered.
    Yes, AIG and C did reverse splits after the '08-'09 stock market debacles, but those were very, very big companies with huge floats of stock and enormous liquidity. Even after their splits they had tons of shares left to trade.
    This move by a company like NOR strikes of desperation to A. keep the stock price up so they can remain listed B. don't violate certain loan covenants that might be violated if the stock is delisted or trading at such and such a low price (a guess)..and C. to reduce the number of shares that short sellers and activist/hedge funds can use to profit from the company's current misfortune. This company is someone's sights. "Ready! Aim!.....Fi.....

    Apollo got out before the really bad news hits. It's coming. It hasn't been stated yet...but it's coming.

    Frankly, if I was a betting man I would short this stock AFTER the reverse split. I own no shares. I took a quick 20% haircut in NOR in a 1 week trade that immediately went south on me. I got out before it got worse. I'm just here as a passive observer. Ignore me if you want. This is just theater to me right now.

    Look at it. The reverse split? The news? The stock is going down again. $1 appears to be a ceiling. The floor? Somewhere lower than this. GLTA....I think if you're long you're going to need it.

  • Reply to

    Buy out for $3 very soon!!!

    by boris.dark Jun 23, 2015 10:06 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 23, 2015 1:52 PM Flag

    Make that $300 mil. for the stock and assuming $666 mil. of the debt. The cost of acquiring NOR is $966 mil.

    Even if someone gave you the company for free....you still would owe debt holders $666 mil.

    Why did I bother with a Schwab rating of "B"...buy? Stupid. My own fault. Sold out with a quick 20% loss.

  • Reply to

    666 Million in DEBT??????????????

    by call8675309jennie Jun 22, 2015 8:23 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 23, 2015 10:03 AM Flag

    Blackstone...NOR is NOT profitable. When I look at them the last time they money was 2012. The estimates are for losses (pennies, but losses nonetheless) for this year and a possible return to profitability (again..only pennies) maybe...in 2016.
    Yep..it's up 7 cents this morning...but where will it end the day?
    NOR is now a penny stock. These things don't triple. No one buys out a stock under $1 for double their value. Nobody.
    The only way this stock recovers if they make some huge restructuring deal that tweaks the markets interest. That could happen, but it's the only way you'll see a return.
    IMHO, you will see a dilution (very, very bad idea) that will raise some cash for the company. No one will underwrite more debt for them. Their debt limit has already been surpassed. No other aluminum producer will but this debt laden cow. Maybe, someone will buy a piece of the company if they can avoid taking on any of their debt. Or...they file chapter 9 or 11 to save the company, workers and managements jobs while the shareholders are hung out to dry. Are insiders buying their own stock at these prices. They should be if it's going to turn around. Watch insiders.
    They need some sort of management hocus-pocus to turn this around. I have no skin in the game. I wish you guys luck.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 22, 2015 5:09 PM Flag

    There 69 million shares.
    The company has $666 million in debt. That's roughly $10/sh in debt.
    Buy the company for $2/sh....that's $140 million dollars. But whoever buys it has to pay back the $666 million in debt too.

    You gotta factor in the debt they owe when figuring out who, what or why anyone would buy them.

    It's not going to be bought out at $2/ share let alone $3. It's not. It's just not.

    I sold out this morning. It's going lower. Apollo knew something bad was coming and skeedaddled. The rest of us just don't know yet, but it's coming. GLTA.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 22, 2015 10:34 AM Flag

    It probably will now that I sold out. Took a quick 25% loss in 10 days. Schwab took the rating off of NOR. It was a "B", Buy until today.

    Thanks Scwab....for nothing.

    I think NOR is going bankrupt for what it's worth.

    It's going to a dime over the next yr. It will be delisted.

  • Anybody here own it in a taxable account? Are they qualified dividends or not?
    I'm trying to decide which account to own it in. If they're qualified I have the option of the lower tax rate in a taxable account.

    Thanks in advance.

  • warnbeeb by warnbeeb Jun 19, 2015 11:02 AM Flag

    It's not going to be bought out for $2 or $3.
    The way you get back to $2 is they find a way to restructure and perhaps sell an asset that gives the company a floor.
    Right now the market is pricing NOR as though it's going to die.

  • Reply to

    I just bought 1250 shares at 1.01

    by ricardo_ricky40 Jun 18, 2015 11:27 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 19, 2015 7:45 AM Flag

    It is not profitable. It just eliminated its paltry dividend. They are looking at strategic alternatives. Hopefully that means restructuring their massive debt and selling some assets. The one thing this company has is physical plants and manufacturing assets that might be worth something to a buyer.
    Hopefully management is not considering bankruptcy in order to save their own jobs and......those of the employees. In bankruptcy everything goes on. The company operates and the employees and management get paid. Just the shareholders get zapped.
    Hopefully the stock doesn't go down another 10%+ today.

  • Reply to

    I just bought 1250 shares at 1.01

    by ricardo_ricky40 Jun 18, 2015 11:27 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 18, 2015 6:22 PM Flag

    I just bought last week at $1.27. I should have sold yesterday on the bounce, but I thought the funding news might see some follow through today. Wrong. Now it's lower than before the financing news broke. Now I'm thinking I got to get lucky. Reverse split talk is always a killer. No company considering a RS does well in my experience.
    The problem with a buyout is the debt. Yeah, the market cap is cheap, but a buyer has to assume hundreds of millions of debt. The bauxite feud/taxes with Jamaica can literally kill the company. As far as Jamaica is concerned someone other than NOR will pay them what they want so why make a deal? That issue is on hold for now but it's far from settled.
    The energy supply issue is not going to hurt for a couple 3 yrs. but they have to negotiate another one. Time? when? How much more? Again uncertainty.
    The price is so cheap now I suspect no big hitter will want anything to do with NOR. Best hope is a private equity house takes a stab, but the Apollo (that's their name right?) Group just sold out. So why would someone else?

    I'm guessing NOR is heading to lower lows and eventual bankruptcy. Sheesh I hard Schwab. They had if rated a "B".....buy. Looks like they're wrong again. They have it rated a "C" hold thus week.

  • Reply to

    BUI sold out of this

    by beringer94 May 8, 2015 9:46 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 11, 2015 6:21 PM Flag

    I don't own many bonds. I'm mostly an income investor. I don't own any individual utilities, unless you call T a utility. BUI meets my income needs in the utility sector without owning any one stock. The 12% discount to NAV with nerarly an 8% payout is compelling. Unless they can't keep the payout where it is I'll just keep holding. In several years I'll have dripped enough dividends that I'll have a nifty little monthly income stream. GLTU.

  • Reply to

    BUI sold out of this

    by beringer94 May 8, 2015 9:46 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 11, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    Not true. BUI writes options on their holdings. Approximately 30% of the .121 cent monthly distribution is short term capital gains from the leveraging of their holdings. It's all disclosed. They collect dividends, they buy and sell shares and write call options. They do not short stocks.

    So it's about 8 cents in pure dividends and 4 cents in STCG. In a a tax deferred account there is no tax implications. I've been DRIPing my monthly distribution from the day I bought BUI. It currently sells for almost 12% below its NAV. The monthly income is very reliable. Right now is a good time to add. Compelling buy for conservative income investors.

  • Reply to

    Jim Rogers

    by cdsteak May 22, 2015 3:46 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 5, 2015 12:56 PM Flag

    My guess is they're just stretching this out until another miner buys them out then it gets mined. I have a small investment here. Just a long term calm option on this thing hitting the jackpot. I'm not sell g or buying more.

  • Reply to

    Is POT still on BHP radar screen?

    by havanabaycompany May 31, 2015 9:35 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 3, 2015 9:41 AM Flag

    BHP is better than POT. Hold this mega commodity conglomerate for the long term. This is THE company to own for worldwide agriculture and commodity development over the next 10-20 years. Great dividend. Easily covered. BHP mines "stuff". The stuff that the world needs to build and develop and feed itself. It should be a core holding in any diversified portfolio. The price is at the low end of it's historical value. I own it and DRIP the dividend. I own MOS instead of POT for the same reason. I sleep well.

  • Reply to

    Jim Rogers

    by cdsteak May 22, 2015 3:46 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 2, 2015 8:53 PM Flag

    One of these years they might actually start mining graphite. Wouldn't that be nice.

  • When you get them they will be worth something around $9/sh in US dollars. So at .4 shares per BHP share they will replace about $3.60 per share of the value of BHP. I look at it like BHP is worth around $49.50 vs the current $45.90. Remember....BHP will not be reducing their dividend. It will remain the same. So it's like these South32 shares are like an additional $3.60 dividend.

    I'm holding both. I won't sell the South32 shares. I'm suspicious in a year South32 is going to be worth more and BHP will be right back in the $50's where it should be.

    This is going to be just fine.

  • Reply to

    Buyout Rumor !

    by robertclark135 May 13, 2015 10:40 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb May 13, 2015 10:51 AM Flag

    Crazy, stupid clown rumor. A'int gonna happen.

  • Oil has to spike through the roof and return gasoline to $4+/gallon. FSYS, unlike WPRT, produces conversion systems for gasoline to nat gas engines. It also provides the refilling stations for nat gas engines, which IMHO, is the real long term "potential" value in this company.
    The company's products are simply not in demand. Simple. Nat gas engines are simply not wanted. Gasoline is too cheap even as nat gas is even cheaper.
    I will not buy more of this company. I own more than I want to but as I have several winners elsewhere in my portfolio I can afford to sit on this cr**py stock and wait for a possible revival. I am not holding my breath nor expecting it any time soon.
    They are not going out of business. They still have the activist investors on board. It can get cheaper and in a bear market it could go to sub-$5/share. It might.
    But.....someone actually might swoop in a buy them out, though I'm not sure I'll get my $12-13 cost basis back. If any sort of nat gas sentiment change occurs that spikes this sector then FSYS might double. I will simply hold FSYS.....continue to hold. I will not average down. That never seems to work.

    Sentiment: Hold

MSFT
44.37-0.89(-1.97%)Jun 29 4:00 PMEDT