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CBRE Clarion Global Real Estate Message Board

warnbeeb 60 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 27, 2014 4:18 PM Member since: Apr 8, 1998
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  • Believe me, I'm in the same boat as many here. I've held MOS for some time and have little to show for it. Nevertheless, the negativity around MOS is palpable. The consensus is that nothing good is going to happen for awhile.
    I won't be selling. If we see a little weakness I'll add a little more. I have 5 year horizons with some of my core holdings, of which MOS is one. They all can't go up at the same time. I'm still confident that the commodity/materials stocks will have their day. Gotta own some things in this sector and MOS is one of mine.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Q2:14 Results

    by formerprinter Aug 7, 2014 6:47 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Aug 26, 2014 12:05 PM Flag

    EV/EBITA of 6. Pays 6% dividend. Sells for 8 x free cash flow and 1/3 of sales.

    Why short a stock like this. Yo...it may not go to $25 but, man...it sure isn't going to $12.

    Collect the dividend. RRD will be $20-22 in 1 yr.

  • Reply to

    Price of MGPHF headed sharply higher.

    by warprofits Aug 4, 2014 8:35 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Aug 23, 2014 11:43 AM Flag

    I would like to clarify. I've just reviewed the maps of the Lac Gueret area and was impressed with the number of developed roads in the area. I'm guessing that the mine may not be more than a few miles from already built access roads. I do not know if those roads can tolerate the trucks and equipment that a mining operation uses, however.
    It does appear that road access is not as daunting as I thought. It may not take as long as I thought.
    I also looked at the distances from where I once visited Quebec. I wasn't within 500 miles of Lac Gueret.
    Quebec is one big place, dudes.

  • Reply to

    Price of MGPHF headed sharply higher.

    by warprofits Aug 4, 2014 8:35 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Aug 23, 2014 11:13 AM Flag

    It's not where the graphite is in relation to the surface. It's where it is in Quebec. It's hundreds of miles from any developed infrastructure. This mine is in the middle of nowhere with only poorly developed logging roads anywhere nearby. It's remote, forest covered, very hilly...if not mountainous, cold and frequently snow covered and icy from Oct to May. It's not the arctic, but it's nasty up there. I've been a few hundred miles southwest of that area (a couple hundred miles north of Montreal) where there is some development....and it's still ruggedly cold there much of the year. There are also tons of streams, rivers, ponds, lakes, bogs, wetlands....you name it that have to be circumvented and crossed with heavy equipment. Lots of bridges, culverts, drains....etc. You get the point.

    The equipment and buildings needed on/at that site have to be brought in, built and the entrances/exits to the area all have yet to be developed. That takes a lot of time and money to do.....long before you can even start scraping the ground to pull up graphite.

    I'm a shareholder. I'm not selling. I'm merely pointing out you're being wildly optimistic in your time line for graphite mining to begin. Think 2017. I just want to see infrastructure to seriously begin development within a year. That would be great and I think would excite shareholders. Hopefully they don't have to dilute to get the money to do it.
    I'd like to see $2 by this time next year and maybe $4-5 by 2016. I think that's more realistic.

  • Reply to

    Price of MGPHF headed sharply higher.

    by warprofits Aug 4, 2014 8:35 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Aug 22, 2014 11:30 AM Flag

    Warprofits. Stop. I can absolutely, guarantee you that Mason Graphite will not be mining any graphite of any shape, size or form in 2015. You have absolutely no understanding of the logistics of developing mining infrastructure in the northern wilderness of Quebec. It takes 2 years to build the access roads and infrastructure before they can even start breaking into the dirt to dig up grapheme. So many things need to happen before the stuff actually comes out of the Earth.
    I'm not selling any of my shares. I bought this stock after seeing the Jimmy Rogers infomercial with the Mason executive. It's easy to find. I'm still looking to see if Rogers owns any shares of MGPHF. I suspect he does. I can't see how he would have wasted his time filming an interview with MGPHF execs unless he thought it was legitimate. However, I'm quite certain Jimmy Rogers knows full well that whatever he put into MGPHF stock may come to nothing. That's the way I look at my holdings in this company as well. The graphite/grapheme story/future is real. It remains to be seen if MGPHF actually gets to participate in it.
    If we're (the shareholders) really, really lucky MGPHF may have the financing and some preliminary infrastructure started in 2015. At the very, very earliest I would not expect any sort of significant mining of graphite to start until 2016.....but more realistically 2017.

    Be aware that if MGPHF were absolutely certain to be mining graphite next year the share price would be reflecting now. It isn#$%$ down from where I first heard about the company.....but higher from when I actually bought it. I'm content to wait.

    If this stock gets back to $1 that would be quite an accomplishment before year end. If it can get to $1.50 in 2015...some time....even better.

    Your $20 stock idea is silly. That won't happen until they are a real mining company pumping out tons of graphite. At the very earliest it will be late 2017 or 2018 before they can be really mining.

  • Reply to

    You guys don't get it

    by moron_busters Aug 21, 2014 10:12 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Aug 22, 2014 11:06 AM Flag

    "Before a collapse"???? What are you talking about. It already has collapsed. It's been tanking for 3 years. The only thing left is bankruptcy.
    That will happen too. Probably in 2015.

  • Price/sales .3
    Price/book .5
    Enterprise value/EBITA 5.3 (7 is great....10-12 is good. Whats does 5.3 then mean?
    Book value of $29/sh
    $2/share in operating cash flow

    It's just cheap, cheap, cheap.

    I've bought and sold MT a few times over the years and have never lost money. I'm not buying right now because the market, overall, is overpriced. MT not going up in this environment is telling to me. Everyone is chasing the high flyers. No one is going after the deep value plays. The new high list is not broad. Volume is not excessive. It's hard for stocks like MT to get traction in this market. There has to be a pause, drop, retrenchment and basing in this market. Then....then.....MT will be an excellent buy.

    It may not go much lower. Maybe under $13. But I don't see anything much more than $15 in this current market and that's not enough to tempt me to buy MT now.

    Wait. MT will be in the $20's again. But not from a starting point where it is now.

  • Reply to

    Wellington Denahan CEO:

    by chuck_960 Aug 7, 2014 7:29 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Aug 9, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    Financial stocks will be the market leaders when interest rates finally do start to rise.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Aug 9, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    The target is "Zero". What don't you get?

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Aug 9, 2014 9:55 AM Flag

    "At this price, what is really the risk of buying a few thousand shares"

    The risk is that you're going to lose it all. The bottom for HIPP is "Zero". It will hit .07. It will bounce to .09. Then it will go back .07....then .06 (split adjusted, of course). Then drop some more. A nickel. A penny. Good bye.

    After this reverse split the drop in price will accelerate. I promise you that. The stock is awful The company is doomed.

  • Reply to

    Im selling...

    by vortecman Aug 5, 2014 9:29 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Aug 6, 2014 10:31 PM Flag

    Me too.

  • Reply to

    Im selling...

    by vortecman Aug 5, 2014 9:29 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Aug 6, 2014 10:12 AM Flag

    What? You just invested $80 yesterday? Give it time, man. Must be your trading algorithm.

    The computer never lies.

  • Reply to

    buying

    by vortecman Aug 5, 2014 11:12 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Aug 5, 2014 12:10 PM Flag

    Kiss that $80 bucks away. Why didn't you just go over to your toilet and flushed it down there? At least you can say goodbye in person.

  • warnbeeb by warnbeeb Aug 5, 2014 10:23 AM Flag

    A couple weeks ago Goldman Sachs published 25 small cap stocks to buy. SALE was one of them at around $25/sh with a mid-hi $30's price target.
    GS does this all the time. The stock bumped up a few $$ after that. I watched. I waited. Then this. Kaboom. You know. You have to know that Goldman knew this was coming. They put out a buy so they could sell their shares to the public who lapped up their story.
    In the end....Goldman makes money for themselves. The public be damned.

  • warnbeeb by warnbeeb Aug 4, 2014 3:19 PM Flag

    Below a dime. LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL. Told ya.

    Next stop? Zero. It will take some time. But a year from now this company will out of business. I feel bad for the employees. I feel bad for investors like myself who got snookered, but sold out a long time ago. Yep, we lost money....but not all of it. I don't feel sorry for those who have ridden this thing into oblivion. Everyone gets what they deserve.

  • Reply to

    IDEXX

    by defpotecworks Jul 25, 2014 11:16 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jul 31, 2014 9:18 AM Flag

    I think IDEXX has pretty much saturated the private practice market with the lab equipment they predominantly sell. They make money selling supplies and reagents for those devices. Also the veterinary practice market is consolidating left and right as smaller practices get bought and rolled up into larger ones. The pet population is, at best, stagnant so actual client visits to private practices is also pretty flat. Revenues are going up more slowly than in past mostly due to increased prices and adding new services.
    MWIV is in better long term shape than IDEXX.

  • Reply to

    Considering the circumstances....

    by warnbeeb Jul 29, 2014 10:44 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jul 29, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    To me, the only risk to BP is a dividend cut and nothing in today's report suggested that's imminent. It's going to take several quarters for this to play out.
    I wouldn't mind if the stock goes down a little so my DRIPPED dividends can buy more shares. I don't want it to go down, but if it does there is a positive...more shares from the divvy.

  • Down $1 is nothing. I've owned BP since just after the Gulf fiasco. Most of my shares were bought in the $30s and low 40s. No....I didn't pick the bottom. I was underwater (figure of speech) for quite some time, but now I'm clearly in the black with my BP shares. I've been collecting a very nice dividend for the last couple years now and reinvesting in the stock.
    I don't really need, in spite of wanting to, buy more shares. I'm quite comfortable with BPs share price and dividend.
    Now....if this Russian thingy worsens my biggest fear is earnings get whacked and BP cuts the dividend. I'm doubting that happens. BP pays a generous dividend to keep shareholders on board while the Gulf litigation continues to drag on.
    In the end....the Gulf settlements will be manageable. I also think the Russian issues will dissipate over the coming months. And....worse case scenario....the Russian thing turns into a disaster and Russian oil/gas gets cut off from the West....then the losses BP suffers in Russia will be offset by the rise in the cost of energy and oil/gas reserves around the rest of the world...of which BP has a lot and at current prices is very undervalued.
    Maybe BP just sits here around $45-50/sh. But....in 2-3-4 yrs. BP will be $60-70. I'm just holding and watching and collecting dividends.

  • Reply to

    Comin back, in green now

    by louquag167 Jul 23, 2014 4:30 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jul 23, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    Filling the sell the news crowd orders first then they will start filling the buy, buy, buy crowd. I would think GILD should tack on a couple bucks in next couple days.

  • Someone leaked the news. Someone knows. Stinks.

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