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Analog Devices, Inc. Message Board

warnbeeb 5936 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 24, 2015 5:32 PM Member since: Apr 8, 1998
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  • COP just raised their dividend 1 penny. Not much, but it hardly signals they're going to cut it.
    I'm of the opinion that they know more than analysts do what the price is going to do and they plan accordingly.
    This is ugly. But I'm holding onto my COP and will collect the dividends and re-invest them as I have for years. My cost basis is down in the low $30s. It ain't going there.
    COP's dividend is going to hold, This stock is wicked cheap.

  • Reply to

    Way Oversold at this point after beating numbers

    by mystk7 Jul 24, 2015 9:21 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jul 24, 2015 9:36 AM Flag

    This stock is done until that Alzheimer's drug proves to work. The all time high is it for the foreseeable future. I don't see it back to $350 this year. IMHO it will be a tax loss trade for the end of the year. Any rally will be sold into. B is yesterday's news until they come up with something new. I don't see anyone taking them over. Phooey. My only consolation is I only have a small position. Dreadful.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Jul 20, 2015 2:13 PM Flag

    The better ratio is gold to the Dow Jones Industrials.
    Normal is between 10-15. It's currently right around there....15.
    Gold should be bought when it's above the 1/20th of the DOW. It should be sold when it is below 1/4th.

    If the DOW is 20,000, Gold should be around $2000/oz. maybe $3000.

    One of these days Gold will be much closer to 1:1 with the DOW. The DOW might be 8000 and Gold around $6-8000/oz.

    The next big stock market crash is going to ignite Gold. Me? I'm suffering with my gold shares, but not entirely as I have a bunch of the high fliers. I just hope I'm smart enough to hold onto my gold and sell the AAPL's and Facebooks of the world when the poo hits the fan.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Jul 14, 2015 9:54 AM Flag

    Yup, up 2 /10,000th of a dollar. Take it to the bank......sizzle.

  • Reply to

    Sorry kids....but NOR is heading to zero.

    by warnbeeb Jul 8, 2015 11:03 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jul 8, 2015 2:31 PM Flag

    Oh, I was looking for a little bounce. It was just a trade. It did bounce from $1 to $1.39 or so in one day. I bought at $1.27 and thought that maybe it would go up for another day or two and I might get $150 or 60....but it went down .30 the next day. I got out at .97 or somethinglikethat.

    Ignore me if you want. I don't care. It's your money. I was just offering my 2 cents worth....which is what NOR is going to be.

    Bottom line. The company will continue. The company will continue to roll aluminum. The employees will have a job and the execs will too. Money will be there to operate the company. It's just that the stock will be around zero......again.....IMHO...by the EOY.

  • Reply to

    Craig-Hallum upgrade

    by bluebloodedtrader Jul 8, 2015 8:44 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jul 8, 2015 11:16 AM Flag

    Who the heck is Craig-Hallum. Never heard of them.

    New announcement. Warnbeeb upgrades FSYS with price target of $12! How 'bout that! Now watch the stock take off!

  • I lost a grand in very short order a few weeks back. I'm neither long or short now. Just watching. Please....for your own good, if you can get any money back that you have invested in NOR get it back ASAP. The writing is on the wall. It's going to ZERO. Probably before the end of the year.
    I don't know much about the company, but I do know the stock market. This stock is a zombie. Walking dead. It's a goner. 60 cents....then 50....then .40........then....th.............gone.

  • Reply to

    next post-earnings conference call

    by lucky_lenny_1964 Jul 4, 2015 9:16 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jul 7, 2015 1:00 PM Flag

    With almost 1 billion shares outstanding they would need to purchase 50-100 million shares to make any sort of dent in the share price/BV. That would entail a $500 mil to $1 billion investment. They don't have that kind of cash unless they suspend the dividend. At .30/qtr./share that would mean at least...at least....2 qtrs. worth of dividends. If they did that it would undermine the REIT structure. Income investors would flee. It totally goes against the core basis for the company existing in the first place.
    They could borrow money to buy back the shares I guess. But then, they have to repay the debt. With what?

    No....forget about it. This company will NOT being buying back their own shares. Makes no sense.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Jul 2, 2015 1:43 PM Flag

    They RAISED the dividend last Fall even after oil prices had started to drop and the legal issues were far from settled. Now that the oil price has recovered (but no assurance it won't retest) and the legal clouds are cleared up you think they will cut it? Ummm....I don't think so. More than anything, they spread these penalties out over 18 years. Way better than anyone was expecting. No big whack to the balance sheet today. Spread the risk out. The value of the money they pay the states with will go down, but the actual dollar numbers will stya the same. Over time, it's better for BP. I'm sure the states wanted all their money now, but that would bankrupt the company. Better to milk the cow than kill it.
    This is like the tobacco company settlements back in the 90's. They took off after that.
    BP is a much, much better investment and dividend payer today than it was yesterday. Everything about the company is much better today.
    I expect $50/sh by early '16. Back in the 70's in 2-3 years.
    BP is the most undervalued large cap, energy company in the world.
    Some people talking up PBR.....but that company can't hold a candle to BP. BP is more like XOM. My biggest fear is they will go buy COP or something like that.....
    Hoping someone buys them, but realistically, I think they're too big to be bought.

  • Reply to

    Upside and takeover are huge..

    by insurancefla1 May 13, 2015 11:36 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 30, 2015 11:33 PM Flag

    I am a DVM and think JAGX is a long way from being successful. Even if their calf scours product works great the market for it is pretty small. If they can get a canine product out there that might be more profitable. But still, their market cap is around $40 million now. They might have a couple anti diarrheal products that might generate $5-10 million in sales. The conventional, current approaches to treating diarrhea in dogs work most of the time. The market for intractable watery diarrhea in dogs is insignificant IMHO.
    I read article that they might have a product for type II diabetes in cats down the road. That.....might be a money maker. Wait for news on that.

  • warnbeeb by warnbeeb Jun 30, 2015 11:59 AM Flag

    Don't know how much lower it will go, but the company isn't going bankrupt. Sheesh....get a life.

    The market is bad right now and will probably stay that way for a few more weeks. IMHO, MEI will be in the $30s come EOY.

  • Reply to

    DRIP Plan Honest opinions

    by adamandamermaid Jun 28, 2015 1:30 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 29, 2015 9:13 PM Flag

    I DRIP my shares in a tax deferred account. For years now. I don't expect to sell my COP shares.....if ever. When I retire I will take the dividends as cash and live off them the best I can. I have about a dozen stocks like this. T, RRD, BP, QCOM, KKR, GE, some CLE's......painful to see sell offs like we're going through here but I know I'll get more shares cheaper. JMHO.

  • Reply to

    So .9000 seems to be holding

    by yinkeyc Jun 26, 2015 2:24 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 27, 2015 12:02 PM Flag

    Not a problem. I too will be interested in why 3 mil. shares trade all at once. I'm more inclined it was a "buy me out" vs a "I want in" deal.
    Hope it works out.

  • Reply to

    So .9000 seems to be holding

    by yinkeyc Jun 26, 2015 2:24 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 27, 2015 10:25 AM Flag

    My interest is purely observational. I took a flier on a quick trade. I missed it. That morning it jumped .30 cents or so was my chance. It would have been a tiny profit. I was hoping that a 25% move in one day would draw in the public who just saw NOR pop up on a "biggest % gainers" screen and try to ride a quick ride back to $2. Alas...the stock got dumped just as fast. That told me that smarter, more nimble money than mine was on top of this stock. I believe there is some really, really bad news on the horizon. This reminds me of how some of the coal stocks trade. Think Kodak...I got stuck in that one too.
    I think NOR is heading lower and into oblivion. It doesn't go under $1 because of bad luck...or investor misunderstanding. It goes there because the big guys who know what they're doing are trying to profit off it's demise.
    This is a day trading stock now. It's not investable IMHO.
    GLTU.

  • Reply to

    So .9000 seems to be holding

    by yinkeyc Jun 26, 2015 2:24 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 26, 2015 2:54 PM Flag

    At the risk of belaboring the obvious....yeah...it's holding for now. Look at the chart. Every piece of news that's come out since Apollo sold out has resulted in a little bump followed by more selling. It's right at it's 52 week, multi year low. Bottoms are made over time. Not price. IMHO, this ain't the bottom. The bad news. The really bad news hasn't come out yet.

  • Reply to

    what about the R/S

    by fwilder81 Jun 25, 2015 3:03 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 26, 2015 1:41 PM Flag

    There will be roughly 9.5 million shares outstanding after the split at somewhere around $6.50 to $7/sh...depending on the price at the time.
    Reverse splits rarely help small, little followed companies that have cratered.
    Yes, AIG and C did reverse splits after the '08-'09 stock market debacles, but those were very, very big companies with huge floats of stock and enormous liquidity. Even after their splits they had tons of shares left to trade.
    This move by a company like NOR strikes of desperation to A. keep the stock price up so they can remain listed B. don't violate certain loan covenants that might be violated if the stock is delisted or trading at such and such a low price (a guess)..and C. to reduce the number of shares that short sellers and activist/hedge funds can use to profit from the company's current misfortune. This company is someone's sights. "Ready! Aim!.....Fi.....

    Apollo got out before the really bad news hits. It's coming. It hasn't been stated yet...but it's coming.

    Frankly, if I was a betting man I would short this stock AFTER the reverse split. I own no shares. I took a quick 20% haircut in NOR in a 1 week trade that immediately went south on me. I got out before it got worse. I'm just here as a passive observer. Ignore me if you want. This is just theater to me right now.

    Look at it. The reverse split? The news? The stock is going down again. $1 appears to be a ceiling. The floor? Somewhere lower than this. GLTA....I think if you're long you're going to need it.

  • Reply to

    Buy out for $3 very soon!!!

    by boris.dark Jun 23, 2015 10:06 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 23, 2015 1:52 PM Flag

    Make that $300 mil. for the stock and assuming $666 mil. of the debt. The cost of acquiring NOR is $966 mil.

    Even if someone gave you the company for free....you still would owe debt holders $666 mil.

    Why did I bother with a Schwab rating of "B"...buy? Stupid. My own fault. Sold out with a quick 20% loss.

  • Reply to

    666 Million in DEBT??????????????

    by call8675309jennie Jun 22, 2015 8:23 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 23, 2015 10:03 AM Flag

    Blackstone...NOR is NOT profitable. When I look at them the last time they money was 2012. The estimates are for losses (pennies, but losses nonetheless) for this year and a possible return to profitability (again..only pennies) maybe...in 2016.
    Yep..it's up 7 cents this morning...but where will it end the day?
    NOR is now a penny stock. These things don't triple. No one buys out a stock under $1 for double their value. Nobody.
    The only way this stock recovers if they make some huge restructuring deal that tweaks the markets interest. That could happen, but it's the only way you'll see a return.
    IMHO, you will see a dilution (very, very bad idea) that will raise some cash for the company. No one will underwrite more debt for them. Their debt limit has already been surpassed. No other aluminum producer will but this debt laden cow. Maybe, someone will buy a piece of the company if they can avoid taking on any of their debt. Or...they file chapter 9 or 11 to save the company, workers and managements jobs while the shareholders are hung out to dry. Are insiders buying their own stock at these prices. They should be if it's going to turn around. Watch insiders.
    They need some sort of management hocus-pocus to turn this around. I have no skin in the game. I wish you guys luck.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 22, 2015 5:09 PM Flag

    There 69 million shares.
    The company has $666 million in debt. That's roughly $10/sh in debt.
    Buy the company for $2/sh....that's $140 million dollars. But whoever buys it has to pay back the $666 million in debt too.

    You gotta factor in the debt they owe when figuring out who, what or why anyone would buy them.

    It's not going to be bought out at $2/ share let alone $3. It's not. It's just not.

    I sold out this morning. It's going lower. Apollo knew something bad was coming and skeedaddled. The rest of us just don't know yet, but it's coming. GLTA.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 22, 2015 10:34 AM Flag

    It probably will now that I sold out. Took a quick 25% loss in 10 days. Schwab took the rating off of NOR. It was a "B", Buy until today.

    Thanks Scwab....for nothing.

    I think NOR is going bankrupt for what it's worth.

    It's going to a dime over the next yr. It will be delisted.

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