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Analog Devices, Inc. Message Board

warnbeeb 78 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 11, 2015 4:39 PM Member since: Apr 8, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Not Much To Lose

    by wgl32 Nov 8, 2015 3:10 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Nov 11, 2015 4:39 PM Flag

    On the day I got my SSE shares from CHK I sold them. I bought some....and more....back today. SSE has a balance sheet capable of weathering this storm. I'm of the opinion that it is going to survive and rebound in the next 6 mos. I've harvested some profits in some high beta/PE stocks and put some (just some...not all..the rest I'm holding in $$$)) to work here. I still hold chunks of FB and AAPL. I'm just thinking material/energy/industrial stocks will see a rebound in 201. JMHO.

  • Reply to

    trading at 1.5xEBITDA? No debt?

    by jeffffffffffrey Nov 11, 2015 3:54 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Nov 11, 2015 4:34 PM Flag

    Your "no debt?" is misleading. SXC has a lot of debt.
    They do have cash flow and contracts going out several years to maintain it. I'm curious if the steel cos. can get out of these contracts? If some steel cos. declare bankruptcy I guess then they will.
    SXC is a proxy for the steel industry. I own a little of MT and a little of this. Both companies IMHO can weather the current storm. As usually, I'm probably early on these two stocks. My intestinal fortitude is being tested. As long as I don't get in over my head.....stay patient....I think I got 100% returns over the next 1-2 yrs.

  • Reply to


    by hurscu Nov 3, 2015 9:15 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Nov 4, 2015 10:44 AM Flag

    All the family/management is concerned about is cash flow. Keep the dividends flowing to the family. Quadracci's (sp?) own the majority of th shares. They are in a shrinking market. I don't think the family wants to sell the company. I doubt Donnelly would buy them. Now the dividend is over12%. Thatcan't stay that way.

    Don't sell today. Wait.

  • Reply to

    GAAP EST WAS .63 ...

    by kerncob999 Nov 3, 2015 9:53 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Nov 3, 2015 10:11 AM Flag

    Oscar? Oscar Schaeffer? Anybody seen Oscar?..........crickets.

  • Think Lumber Liquidators.
    Sorry, but CMG has peaked. It won't happen all at once. But in 6 mos. It will be trading at 25 x $18 earnings = $450.

  • Reply to


    by wlm77024 Oct 10, 2015 4:45 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Oct 24, 2015 2:06 PM Flag

    I used to be a GROW shareholder. Haven't been for years but look at it from time to time. My take? FWIW.
    GROW needs inflation and commodities to go up and the US $ to go down. Around the world they are devaluing their currencies and doing QE. The U.S. Isn't and wants to raise rates. But the $ stays up because everyone else's is going down. Gold and commodities have a hard time going up under these conditions.
    When the world economy finally rolls over. They are trying their darnedest to keep it up. Even as energy is so cheap nobody's economy is roaring. The U.S. Will not be able to raise rates. Listen to Jeffery Gundlach. He's the new bond king.
    Eventually things will implode and US will restart QE and then gold goes up. The dollar goes down. GROW will grow.
    My guess.....probably by next summer....or septemberish. It will doom Hillary Clinton's campaign and usher in an era of conservative fiscal republicanism. Who? Dunno yet.

  • They asked him again in this weeks issue re his ANIP position even ad it's done 40% from earlier in year. He hyped the $10/sh earnings down the road prediction.....again. One of these days he might be right.

  • Reply to

    Is MOS a Takeover Candidate?

    by imckia Sep 28, 2015 10:08 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Oct 14, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    I'd be surprised if Canadian or U.S. regulators would allow POT and MOS to merge.

  • Reply to

    Oscar Schaffer was lying last week on CNBC

    by warnbeeb Oct 14, 2015 9:46 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Oct 14, 2015 2:41 PM Flag

    Rivulet does hold 2 top 10 positions in the 2 other stocks Schaeffer pumped on Barrons Round Table and on CNBC, Reald and Cogent. (not sure he did Reald on CNBC...Cogent he did....but Reald ,Cogent and ANIP were all Barrons picks). I agree you don't see ANIP there.

  • Reply to

    Oscar Schaffer was lying last week on CNBC

    by warnbeeb Oct 14, 2015 9:46 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Oct 14, 2015 11:36 AM Flag

    If it's not one of his top 10 holdings how can it be so compelling?

  • Reply to

    Oscar Schaffer was lying last week on CNBC

    by warnbeeb Oct 14, 2015 9:46 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Oct 14, 2015 11:36 AM Flag

    Rivulet Partners, his hedge fund, does not show ANIP as one of it's top 10 holdings.

  • Last week, Monday, he's on CNBC at 8am and pounds the table for ANIP. Going to earn $5 next year and $10 in next few. The stock pops up near $50. Now 6 trading days later it's 10% below (ad 20+% below where it peaked Monday afternoon) where it was when he opened his mouth. He sold his shares all this week...or a big part of 'em. Or he took big short (they call it hedging) last Monday afternoon when ANIP was $48-9/sh.


  • Reply to

    What's going on this morning with ANIP?

    by oscar.bdoscar Oct 9, 2015 9:42 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Oct 9, 2015 11:08 AM Flag

    Looks to me like Oscar Schaeffer tried to set up the masses to buy ANIP with his cheerleading on CNBC this past Monday and when it didn't work he decided to pull the plug. The stock moved up $4-5 that day and now is lower than when he went on.
    Figures. Whenever a big shot goes all crazy positive on a stock he's underwater on, you know he's trying to find buyers to get him out of his bet.
    IMHO, and I'm a shareholder, ANIP is going back to the $20's.

  • Gundlach runs Double Line. He's been right on interest rates and what the Fed should and has done. He doesn't think they will or should raise rates this year. He's been right all along. I don't see rates rising before EOY....cuz that's what Jeff says.

    Follow Gundlach and hold onto DSL. He is the new bond king. If anyone can make you money in fixed income it's this guy.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Oct 2, 2015 11:21 AM Flag

    QUAD has gone down essentially 4 days out of 5 for 6 mos. Almost every day it goes down...again....again...I'm a fairly long term shareholder who has dripped his dividends since day one..even still I am down serious change. I've thought the Quadracci Family runs this company to throw off dividend income and the last thing they want to do is cut the dividend. They are free cash flow fanatics. FCF is more important than earnings.
    I'm not selling, but believe the dividend is going to by cut 50-80% soon. The dividend is going to .60 at least.....maybe .40. It's the only reason I can see this unrelenting selling. Short sellers don' like to pay dividends, but right now they are cleaning up.

  • Reply to

    Huge reversal today?

    by warnbeeb Sep 28, 2015 2:00 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Sep 28, 2015 2:59 PM Flag

    I do think the Quad...Family wants that dividend however and believe it is sacrosanct. Again....don't be surprised if I am punished for that. LOL.

  • Reply to

    Huge reversal today?

    by warnbeeb Sep 28, 2015 2:00 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Sep 28, 2015 2:58 PM Flag

    My fault....I thought optimistically...therefore, Mr. Market needs to punish me.

  • Closed Friday at$12.80. Opened this morning at $12.76 and cratered down t $ as bounced back up to $2.78. Not huge volume however.
    For technicians this could be a big time bottom reversal. If tomorrow is up.....I could see a rebound.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Sep 28, 2015 11:35 AM Flag

    I just bought some last week under $6. I'm guessing I'll have to again...under $5 which I'm pretty sure it's heading. If it goes towards the $4' again.

    Yes, MT is only about 6% of the world's steel production but it is the largest in the world and it mines it's own ore so it will survive before those steel companies that have to buy their ore from the market.

    MT can just slow down, close (temporarily) some plants/mills/mines and just wait this out. Their balance sheet is solid. Positive free cash flow. They could eliminate their dividend and that would also be good. Nobody owns MT for income anymore. They are selling at a historical low to book value and sales.

    I'm not happy, but honestly, not surprised. MT will still be around in 5 years...10 years.

    Buy now...or pretty soon and hold the'll make money if you're patient.

  • Reply to

    nice % gain in MT coming

    by munhoi Sep 25, 2015 2:17 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Sep 25, 2015 2:50 PM Flag

    It's even cheaper than the last time I bought MT. Now it's 1/4 of book value and slightly more than 1/10th of sales. 4 times free cash flow.

    The last time I bought MT all these metrics were higher. Bought at around $10 and sold around $14. Haven't been following her much but it showed up again on a screen I like to run on stocks that are selling at a huge discount to book and sales. I know many of their sales metrics are going lower so the 4 x FCF is a little misleading...however by my criteria selling below 10x FCF is a bargain.

    MT is worth taking a position in today even as you need to be prepared to add if it keeps heading lower....which it appears to want to do. Nobody can pick the real bottom, but I'm sure it's closer than we think.

60.25-0.17(-0.28%)Nov 25 4:00 PMEST