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Analog Devices, Inc. Message Board

warnbeeb 62 posts  |  Last Activity: 14 hours ago Member since: Apr 8, 1998
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  • Reply to

    What will earnings look like here?

    by ed.schindler Jan 5, 2015 12:42 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jan 7, 2015 9:59 AM Flag

    Their projected cash dividend payout for coming year is $3.6 billion ($2.92/sh). The payout ratio is 37%. Their trailing 12 mo. earnings was $7.54.
    Even if earnings are cut in 1/2 they can cover the dividend. They won't cut the dividend since they just raised it.
    This oil price will not stay down here very long. By this time next year this will all be a fading memory. COP is much more of a buy than sell here. The dividend is good. I predict (for what it's worth) there's a 90% chance the dividend stays right where it is. I've owned it since the high $40s....dripping dividends all along. I'm not happy with the price but I think I own a good, safe long term investment.

  • Reply to

    What will earnings look like here?

    by ed.schindler Jan 5, 2015 12:42 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jan 5, 2015 3:52 PM Flag

    Cap ex will be cut before the dividend.

  • Reply to

    Don't get it.

    by captspaulding67 Jan 5, 2015 10:26 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jan 5, 2015 3:51 PM Flag

    Oil is valued not by how much it costs to find it, drill for it, transport it, store it or refine it. Oil is oil is oil is oil. Yes there are different grades and kinds that require more work to get to a useful level....but in the end....oil is oil.
    Yes, every producer has his own "cost of production" and that's where the money gets made. Whoever has the best fields that are the easiest to drill, transport and refine have the highest margins. gasoline and nat gas too. Who can find it, transport it and refine it and get it to the end customer cheapest makes the most money.

    So COP should be better off than smaller outfits. The frackers have higher production costs and they've paid up to get their leases. Those with the biggest, oldest reserves are at an advantage. Don't sell COP. Not at this price.

  • Reply to

    Question: When interest rates are raised

    by dlytle51 Jan 2, 2015 8:53 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jan 5, 2015 1:47 PM Flag

    What if Jeffery Gundlach is correct and long term rates drop? Better for NLY, I should think.

  • Reply to

    I am in at 38.30...this is looking very ugly

    by buckman2777 Jan 5, 2015 7:31 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jan 5, 2015 1:05 PM Flag

    Too late to sell.

  • Reply to

    Today, in an interview with the Korea Times

    by bostonhockey Dec 28, 2014 7:07 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Dec 31, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    You wouldn't put kid's college money in a stock like this anyway. I own several thousand shares, but I don't have a huge investment in THIS. This is money you don't need for years. MGPHF could spike 50% overnight on any sort of news. If I see $2/share on this stock in the next 3 years I'll be satisfied. I do not expect this to be a $20 stock.....ever.

  • Reply to

    T raises dividend 2.2% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    by treword63 Dec 19, 2014 2:23 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Dec 19, 2014 8:52 PM Flag

    DTV is satellite. Pipes to your house are going away.

  • Reply to

    T raises dividend 2.2% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    by treword63 Dec 19, 2014 2:23 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Dec 19, 2014 2:58 PM Flag

    This dividend is more than safe. Any time AT&T pays over 5.5% dividend it's a buy. When it drops below 4% it's a sell.
    I happen to believe that T was shrewd to buy DirectTV. Cable is doomed long term. I believe in a year or two T's growth will reaccelerate and the dividend will continue to inch up. DRIP the dividend. Sleep well at night.
    This is not a growth stock. This is a value/income stock. If you're under 45 yrs. old you don't need to own T.

  • Reply to

    Does GSK withold foriegn tax on dividend?

    by warnbeeb Dec 16, 2014 10:48 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Dec 16, 2014 4:49 PM Flag

    Thank you. IMO GLX will not cut that dividend even thought the ration appears to be pretty high. If she drops under $40 I'm thinking it's an excellent long term, income, value play.

  • Or is GSK an ADR, in which case it shouldn't be.

    Any long time holders?

  • Reply to

    Invest For The Long Term

    by longballsd Dec 15, 2014 3:59 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Dec 15, 2014 6:06 PM Flag

    I'm a long term BP shareholder who has dripped every share I've ever been given. Even as the current share price has taken all my cap gains (on paper) I am about even after 5+ years off owning BP.
    IMHO BP will go below $30. We're getting more shares this week. Makes the pain a little more bearable. I might buy more shares when the bankruptcy talk starts up again. For now. Trying not to watch.....but I won't sell.

  • Reply to

    8 cents

    by saltshakers121 Dec 9, 2014 11:07 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Dec 15, 2014 9:42 AM Flag

    Look at their income statement, balance sheet and cash flow statements.
    They're awful. No growth. None. Flat at best.
    The stock gets diluted, diluted, diluted every 6 mos. They have barely any equity.
    Nope, they don't borrow money cuz no one will lend it to them other than against accts. receiveable.
    It will never get to 8 cents. It's going to 2 cents.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Dec 12, 2014 10:39 PM Flag

    Operating and net income are improving even as sales are flat. Positive cash flow. Debt service and dividend are covered. This is an income, not growth stock. Drip the dividends for 10 years and you'll be up nicely.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Dec 10, 2014 12:06 PM Flag

    People....don't panic. There are going to be some take overs coming. Companies with decent reserves are going to be bought up. COP won't have to explore for new reserves. Just buy 'em. This is painful but the dividend will hold and dropping back into the $50's will not surprise me. I will buy more COP in the $55 range. The small drillers and the energy infrastructure plays are getting creamed. COP, BP, TOT, XOM, CHV......buy 'em. Petrobras is a steal (even as I am a little shy re. buying foreign oil plays as their currencies are so bad now.) COP will be fine. Sleep well my friends.

  • Reply to

    What's with the pop?

    by sigurdueland Dec 3, 2014 9:59 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Dec 3, 2014 8:13 PM Flag

    Thank you

  • Reply to

    What's with the pop?

    by sigurdueland Dec 3, 2014 9:59 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Dec 3, 2014 3:56 PM Flag

    Link? I see no news. I see no reference to insider buy.

  • Reply to

    Think About It...

    by mooseonaplane Dec 1, 2014 2:14 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Dec 1, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

    This drop in oil/gas prices is having a similar effect to QE. More money now available for stuff other than oil and gas. I don't see that lasting. I say give it 6 months. I agree with you that QE will start up again. I'm not even sure the US Fed will raise interest rates this year. I just don't see it.

  • Reply to

    Gold - 6000 Year Bubble

    by lwbd2014 Nov 28, 2014 8:44 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Nov 28, 2014 2:27 PM Flag

    Agree. Absurd statement.
    Several years ago, in Canada, I tread a fascinating piece about why gold really does have value. Basically, it's a fundamental definition of value. It's like a BTU (British Thermal Unit). BTUs are used to define different values to different kinds of energy. Coal vs oil vs nat gas vs peat moss vs wood vs uranium, etc. Each kind of energy has some value in terms of BTUs. The BTU is really nothing. It's just a measure. Like a second or an hour or a year. They're fixed. How do you measure money? It's value? Different currencies. They're just paper. They too are meaningless. They are only worth what someone says they are. But why?
    Money needs to have something to measure it by. And it has to be repeatable and universally equal everywhere. So a house or an acre of crop land or Van Gogh painting can't be used because none of them are universal. There's only 1 Van Gogh of each painting. Land and buildings are different everywhere and they can't be moved. You could use another commodity, but corn and oil and pork bellies are not eternal. They can be easily reproduced. They get used up. They are easily replaceable.
    Only gold. It's rare. It's potable. It's equal everywhere (in purity....not price). It is the only, albeit not perfect....there is no perfect measure for currencies....that can be used all over the world to measure the value of anything you have. A house, a farm, dollars, euros, bushels of wheat....whatever. It's tangible. Nope...it's not good for much other than jewelry.....but it's rare and it has value as it can be used as a universal measure....like a BTU is for different forms of energy.....for any other asset.

    Gold will never, never, ever be obsolete. Countries come and go. Currencies come and go. Companies come and go. Gold is eternal. I own some. It's not the most important asset I own. Right now, however, it's the most undervalued asset I own. I'm not selling.

  • Reply to

    Winter in Canada has to be fierce

    by callmemsgeek Nov 24, 2014 10:56 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Nov 25, 2014 5:20 PM Flag

    They won't be mining anything this winter. At best, planning and engineering work. Plotting. Keeping roads open. This area is remote. It does have roads in to the area, but man....it's not an easy place to do any heavy lifting from December to April.

  • Reply to

    Save Our Swiss Gold

    by lwbd2014 Nov 24, 2014 3:38 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Nov 25, 2014 5:12 PM Flag

    I doubt it passes, but I also doubt gold drops on the news. The current price of gold already factors in the Swiss defeat IMHO.
    Gold has bottomed. ABX will be above $20 in '15. ABX will be above $40 in "17.

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