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Itron, Inc. Message Board

warnbeeb 33 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 12, 2016 4:20 PM Member since: Apr 8, 1998
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  • probably before Obama leaves office, someone in the middle east is going to try something incredibly stupid that will flip the world oil markets into turmoil.
    You cannot, not own oil and energy stocks at these process. I fully understand the prices may go down even more, but if they do, the snap back will be even more profound. I feel like the energy markets are like a giant rubber band being pulled and pulled and stretched and strained....something is going to go kaflooie and the price will reverse. Maybe a 10-20% tum then slow rise....but don't be surprised if something like Iran and the Saudis go at it that doesn't cause the $ to double overnight. I'm not predicting this...but believe it's very possible.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Feb 12, 2016 4:11 PM Flag

    I've bought and sold MT a couple times in the past 20 yrs. It is not going out of business.
    It can get cheaper from here and if it does I hope to keep buying it. There is no doubt in my mind that MT will be back above $10 within a year or two or three. Doesn't matter. At $3/share this stock will return 200-300% in a few years. What is it they said...the market can remain irrational longer than you can stay liquid. Just don't go crazy. Be smart. Own some of MT at this price. Over time you'll be rewarded.

  • Reply to

    Jos A Bank

    by cthurman1979 Feb 10, 2016 10:48 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Feb 12, 2016 3:19 PM Flag

    True story. I got a mailer that yesterday, Feb 11, was a private sale, Presidents Day sale at JAB. 2 for 1 on everything. I wanted to get some more travelers shirts (my favorite) but only when they are on sale. I used to get 3 for 1...for around $100. I go in yesterday at 2pm and no one in the store but two clerks. No signage. I have the mailer with me that says it needs to be scanned to get my "savings". The two clerks were totally unaware there was a Feb 11 "sale". The travelers shirts are $79.90 ea, so even as that wasn't as good a deal as in the around $40/shirt vs. the old $33 that wasn't outrageous.
    She scans the coupon and says it's 2 for $109. I asked how come the shirt is listed as $79 but it's $109 if I want 2 for 1? Their prices are all over the place and totally unpredictable. She shrugged and said she didn't know. They don't tell them anything.
    I told her since Mens Warehouse bought them JAB had really changed. Again, she shrugged and said, "Tell me about it."
    I'm done. Not going back. I'd short the stock if I had any gonads.

  • Reply to


    by A Yahoo! User Feb 2, 2016 9:59 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Feb 5, 2016 10:19 AM Flag

    They are not even spammers. These are just automatic posts directed at every Yahoo message board. Same message. Generic...ever freakin' board. Computer generated.
    I own YHOO stock and I believe YHOO has to get this k_rap under control. I come hear for opinions about the stock. C'mon Yahoo...fix this. Are they paying you to let them spam away? I suspect they are. they'll let them post porn on the MBs.

  • Reply to

    Keeps makig new lows eery day

    by warnbeeb Jan 13, 2016 3:40 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jan 30, 2016 9:08 AM Flag

    I dipped my toe in a few weeks ago at around $7.90 per share, approx. $10k investment. Read about it in Forbes Magazine as an alternative to directly owning MLPs. I want to avoid all the K-1s. So the ETF format handles all that and the shareholder treats this just like a high dividend stock or bond fund. You don't have any income form implications. I own it in a Roth and plan to reinvest the div. I havn't received one yet.
    AMZA does use leverage as the dividend is incredibly higher than the underlying MLPs it holds. The MLPs in the fund are all pretty large and well known.
    I think the low volume is due both to it's newness, unknownness and the fact that advisors are reluctant to recommend it for the same reasons.
    I also think it's cratered in price because early investors have been creamed and the low volume means they have to keep dropping their ask to get out. Buyers keep dropping their bids.
    When I bought the thing was trading around $8.50 and I just put in a low ball bid and it filled within 24 hrs.
    AMZA reminds me of several CEF, muni funds I bought in the stock crash of '08-09. People wanted out so bad. Maybe it was margin calls. Anyway I picked two up yielding over 10% tax free after they got cut in half. I still own one and it's more than doubled in $ and still pays the dividend now around 5%. I'm nearing retirement and I expect to hold that fund till I die. I've reinvested every divvy and when I retire I'll take that $400/mo as my walking around free.
    Maybe AMZA will do that for me too. GLTU.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Jan 28, 2016 4:09 PM Flag

    Stocks don't just go up 50% in 1 day, without a takeover bid, very often. Nobody was predicting .30 profit. Most estimates were for .05-.10 cents for the year...let alone a quarter. The dividend of .15/qtr looks safe for the moment. As soon as the market figures out SXC is not a coal company, but rather, a steel company..really we could see continued advancement. Yes, SXC mines coke coal...but it's not for heat and's for running steel mills....and as much as the steel business stinks in the U.S. SXC supplies coke to India and Brazil...and I think even China.
    So if the .60 dividend remains...and they make .50 to 1.00 this year...why wouldn't $5-10 share price be possible?
    Don't on any pullbacks.

  • Reply to

    If CAT is keeping its dividend, I am long

    by santafenm1 Jan 28, 2016 8:13 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jan 28, 2016 10:47 AM Flag

    Agree. It's a buy here. Hold it 5-10 yrs, collect and reinvest the dividend and you will beat 5-10 yr treasuries by a mile. I actually think CAT could go down a lot more...maybe $40's....I'll buy more of it if it does that.
    QCOM is another one that's on sale. News is bad, but the balance sheet is great and the dividend is solid and probably will grow.
    Own both.

  • Reply to

    Let it tank.

    by an414666 Jan 28, 2016 10:17 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jan 28, 2016 10:43 AM Flag

    If you've been in the stock a long time and think it's a "horrible investment" and are just now recommending selling, you clearly don't understand the company.
    Buy low. Sell high.
    Ford is not a trading stock. It's an investment stock. It's like AT&T. Buy and hold, collect dividends, reinvest them and wait 5-10 yrs and you will make out better than holding a 5 or 10 yr. treasury. Way better.
    I added 25% to my F position this morning.
    Yep, should also own FB.....and don't trade it. Just hold onto it and 5-10 yrs. from now it will also be up way more than any treasury bond you could own.
    Keep some cash at all times. At least 10%.....sadly we usually aren't smart enough to sell at the highs and wait until prices come down. I sold 1/2 of my AAPL shares last year at $115-130, but I bought other stocks that have gone down. Probably just have held the AAPL cuz I'd like to buy it now, but the $$$ is in F and CAT and T now.

  • I just could never figure out how they keep making money even as they own stocks I wouldn't own on their K, AMX or IBM.
    I know there's a ton more to this co, than these 3 stocks, but still.
    I've also always looked upon Warren Buffett as the modern day version of Mr. Potter from the movie, "It's a Wonderful Life" except nicer. Just a money grubbing old geezer with a smile on his face.

  • Reply to

    what to do

    by umri_levat Jan 20, 2016 11:11 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jan 20, 2016 11:31 AM Flag

    Tell us when you sell because I can tell you that will be the bottom.
    I'm sorry, but I just don't think oil is disappearing for decades.

  • Reply to

    Keeps makig new lows eery day

    by warnbeeb Jan 13, 2016 3:40 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jan 20, 2016 11:29 AM Flag

    Dividend is currently .50/qtr. $2 per yr meaning the yield is a crazy 30%. Remember this is a pipeline MLP and the cost of transporting oil is the same whether it is at $60, $40 or $20/brl. The pipeline operators get paid I there's oil in the pipes.
    So.....maybe they stop shipping oil via pipes or because the tanks are all full there's no more need to ship it. Fine Then the pipeline operators won't have as much $$ so they have to cut their payouts.
    If they cut from .50/qtr to .10/qtr (an 80% cut in the dividend)....the yield would still be 6%.

    I think it's going into the $5's. But if this dividend stays anywhere above 10 cents/qtr. this is a compelling buy.


  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Jan 14, 2016 9:27 AM Flag

    I can't remember a time in the last 30 yrs where oil traded for several years within a $10-15 band. It will hit $100 IMHO within 3 yrs....and very likely return to $30s...over the same period.
    Everything reverts to the mean. Oil will be in the $40s this year for sure...just because of the math.

  • Reply to

    Clean energy will kill oil

    by fstout57 Jan 11, 2016 12:05 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jan 14, 2016 9:20 AM Flag

    Here's the counter argument. There are over 300 million vehicles on the road and 17 mil were sold in '16. The average....average. Age of the fleet is 11 yrs. So around 1/2 of all vehicles out there today have at least 10 yrs of life left in least. Less than 300,000 vehicles are electric or hybrids. That's 1/10th of 1%. Those cars will only last 10 yrs tops because battery life will end long before the rest of the car does. Batteries eventually stop holding the charge. So EV vehicles currently have shorter lifespans than fossil fuel cars.
    On top of that our housing infrastructure is also 99% fossil fuel heated. Running and heating homes and buildings with solar and wind generated electricity is ludicrously a long way, if ever, off. 1/2 the country is too far north to effectively use solar and the wind doesn't blow consistently enough but in a few remote places to make wind power efficient. Not to mention the power grid is so antiquated that getting juice from where its produced to where it's needed is near impossible.
    Look at big cities like NY or Chicago. Throw in the Buffalos and Boston's. All northern cold wintry cities with millions of people and buildings think you can run those cities with alternative energy like solar and wind?
    I will worry about gas and oil disappearing when they really get serious about nuclear power again....which just won't happen, but should if they really were serious. They're not. It's all politics.
    Yes, oil and gas use will end some day. Probably in 20-30 yrs. when they figure out FUSION. Not the Ford car....but the real thing. Like the sun. Power from fusing ...not fission.....some day they will figure that out. It'll be interesting how the environmentalists react to nuclear bet is they will fight that too.

  • I's an ETF of energy, mostly pipeline MLPs. Has paid roughly .50 cents/qtr in it's short life. No K-1's....No tax implications if in a tax deferred acct.

    Even if the dividend is cut .25/qtr the fund will be paying around 12%. Right now it looks like it's over 20%. That can't stand.
    However...I wlll point out that in the market debacle back in '08 and '09 I was able to buy a couple of municipal bond funds (CEFs) that were normally paying around 5% for over 1/2 off and yielding 11%, tax free, and they never cut the dividend. I've held them ever since. The funds went right back up and now the yield is back to 5-6% but I have 2x as many shares as I used to and I collect a nifty return.

    I think this AMZA is a steal right here and I'm going to take my 1st bite of the apple today.

  • Reply to

    Somebody float an APPL rumor

    by boardwalk97 Jan 8, 2016 1:12 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jan 12, 2016 3:15 PM Flag

    OK, so it took 2 days for them to giveback $1. I suspect it will be back to $12 in a week.

  • Reply to

    Somebody float an APPL rumor

    by boardwalk97 Jan 8, 2016 1:12 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jan 8, 2016 3:32 PM Flag

    This is kooky. Zacks puts out a blurb today citing the press release from Wed. Jan 6 in which VCRA says it will hold a 5pm phone call to talk. Now I can't tell if that means the call is over already...i.e Wed at 5pm EST...or it's yet to be held.
    If it was...where is the write up? What did they say that would make the stock climb like this?

  • Reply to

    Somebody float an APPL rumor

    by boardwalk97 Jan 8, 2016 1:12 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jan 8, 2016 3:23 PM Flag

    I sold 25% of my position today. This is too much too fast. The company is not that big and this 14 hospital contract they just announced is big for them, but hardly by industry standards. I doubt this is anything about an AAPL takeout. This isn't a company that they would be interested in. Maybe a benefits manager? maybe a hospital chain...a big one, HCA? Maybe a health insurer. Or a big software co. like an Oracle or IBM or SAP....or it's just some speculators. My guess? The latter.
    5 pm phone conference with management today. Odd that they would pick 5pm on a Friday. If it were really good news I'd think they'd announce earlier in the day...or at a morning presser. This has the makings of much ado about nothing and Mon. AM the stock gives back $1 +/- . Ill take my gains on the 25% I sold and let the rest ride. If it gives back some..I could easliy buy it back. If it is a takeover I still have shares in pot.

  • Reply to

    Oil bottomed out

    by mmsamadian Jan 6, 2016 1:58 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jan 6, 2016 4:15 PM Flag

    Milk is more expensive than oil right now. Farmers get around $1/gal...I think a barrel of oil is somewhere around 35 gallons. Maybe as much #$%$ Not sure. But if it's 35, then milk is more precious than oil.

  • Reply to

    Hogs get slauthered

    by billspringxyz Jan 3, 2016 6:37 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jan 3, 2016 8:56 PM Flag

    If they go at it who will win? I say the. Saudis with their more modern forces will mop em up. Just wait, if an oil field or two gets whacked or a port/terminal or a few tankers get blown.....yikes....oil to $75 to $100 in weeks. I don't expect the U.S. To intervene. Not our Pres's style.
    Oil services stocks will triple in a week......since most of em trade under $5.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Dec 24, 2015 3:53 PM Flag

    You sound very reasonable and I'm not trying to diss CMI as an investment. I would respectfully suggest you might regret selling all that CAT stock. If I see the history properly you have enjoyed 2 2:1 stock splits in CAT. You had 4x the shares you started with and as for income you've been cleaning up with this nearly 5% dividend.
    I have a friend who inherited Honeywell from relatives 20 yrs ago and just held it and dripped his dividends. Now he's retired and lives handsomely in part due to HONs qtrly div.
    Yup, my energy and some other commodity/ industrial holdings are down but everyone's still paying those dividends that just keeps buying more shares. Your right, I have 4-5 yrs to go before I will want the cash. I don't expect to sell equity. Just clip coupons. The things I expect to sell are the AAPLs, GILD and FBs I own

35.50+1.32(+3.86%)Feb 12 4:00 PMEST