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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Message Board

warnbeeb 73 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 2, 2015 9:53 AM Member since: Apr 8, 1998
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  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Mar 2, 2015 9:53 AM Flag

    If you have a gain....I had about a 50% so far...I would schnitzel a little profit. I sold 1/3 of my position last week. Let the rest ride. I'm not adding. ONNN has moved up nicely, but I think it's fully valued right now with an optimistic forward look. I might buy more on a dip. If I did not own any ONNN yet, I might start a position here, but wouldn't take a big bite at almost $13#$%$ will come back some, before it moves higher. Earnings season is over. The market is at all time highs (nearly). I'm trimming my sales these days and looking for better bargains. I own ONNN in a tax deferred account so taxes are not an issue for me.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Mar 1, 2015 8:01 PM Flag

    I have owned NLY for 4 yrs and have an annual avg. return of 2%. Dripping all my dividends. Same as a 10 yr bond or thereabouts. It's a lousy stock but I haven't wanted bonds. I still say NLY over 10 yrs beats the 10 yr. that's how I've always looked at it.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Mar 1, 2015 7:48 PM Flag

    Curb your enthusiasm.

  • warnbeeb by warnbeeb Mar 1, 2015 7:40 PM Flag

    Sorry LL shareholders. I'm watching the 60 Minutes story. I'm not a shareholder but many times the last couple years I wish I was.
    But not now. Book value is around $4/ sh. I wouldn't touch LL until it hits the teens. Either 3x book or .5 sales. Sales are going to drop like a rock.
    This is sad. I'm not short either, but I wish I was. I could see LL down 20% this week.

  • Reply to

    Soros took stake in LSCC

    by bullsrunsoon Feb 17, 2015 6:12 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Feb 24, 2015 3:06 PM Flag

    Link please or shut up.
    George Soros can't be interested in this little, podunk company.

  • Reply to

    more than 2 years since dividend increase

    by icon0 Feb 23, 2015 5:36 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Feb 24, 2015 2:46 PM Flag

    The 52 week high was around $25.50 almost exactly 1 yr. ago. We will soon be setting new 52 week highs. The dividend is very safe. I'm thinking the market will start to show QUAD some love eventually. It's a ways off, but I believe QUAD will rise until the dividend return is around 4%. I could see a $30 stock over next year or two.
    This is much more of a widow and orphans stock. It is not a growth stock. It is a value/income stock. Enjoy.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Feb 24, 2015 2:38 PM Flag

    Healthy response today. This is a big, well known company. The quarterly report with the bump in the dividend is reassuring.
    Near term? I dunno. Long term, BHP will be just fine. Upside far, far outweighs any more downside long as overall market doesn't collapse.

  • Reply to

    more than 2 years since dividend increase

    by icon0 Feb 23, 2015 5:36 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Feb 24, 2015 10:12 AM Flag

    They generate around $200 mil. in free cash flow and pay about $60 mil in dividends.
    The stock is fairly closely held by insiders. They appear to be running QUAD as much for dividend income as for growth. I'm fine with that.
    The recent miss on the buyout of another printer (forget the name of the company) the RR Donnelly came in a swooped up is also fine. QUAD didn't get into a bidding war. There will be other opportunities.
    If the company chose to buy in shares vs. upping the dividend that would be fine by me. I also own RRD and have been pleased with that one as well.
    This is an underappreciated sector. It pays solid, reliable dividends. Better than bonds. More opportunity for capital appreciation.
    Buy the stock, hold it and DRIP the dividends.
    You'll be fine.

  • I don't know who or when...but it will be for a much higher price than it is now. The barriers to entry for what SATS provides is astronomical. You just can't build and launch satellites and get them leased easily. At roughly, $5 billion market cap this would be pocket change for a big Telco or Bandwidth user. Think AT & T, Verizon, Netflix, GOOG, Amazon. Why buy the milk when you can own the cow?

  • Reply to

    Today's Blessing

    by lwbd2014 Feb 17, 2015 10:20 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Feb 18, 2015 2:26 PM Flag

    Their earnings will not be a blowout. But they may be "better than expected" because the expectations are so low.
    I believe ABX bottomed a while ago. It will slowly, slowly keep going up....Eventually it will spike up and then everyone will jump in.

    I own more ABX than I should and am sitting on significant losses. But...I'm not selling. Not for years.

  • Reply to


    by bobadams7002 Feb 16, 2015 4:35 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Feb 17, 2015 1:52 PM Flag

    My brother's, sister-in-law's next door neighbor's father has a close friend who knows a guy who is a big shot tort lawyer's golf buddy...and he says he's heard that HIPP directors and CEO are not going to be sued. Yes...anybody "CAN" be sued. But that doesn't mean they "WILL" be sued. And these guys won't.

  • Reply to

    Please cut your losses HOLI 21.24

    by carolyn_novice Feb 17, 2015 9:46 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Feb 17, 2015 12:09 PM Flag

    I don't think Jimmy Rogers is selling. I'm betting he might be buying more today. Me? I am not selling. I'm bummed that it will take awhile to get back to mid 20s now...but it will. They don't give out .40 special dividends if they think their business is not growing. It is.
    If it gets back to $18...and it very well might...I'll gobble up some more. I think this will be $40 in a year or two.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Feb 12, 2015 10:07 AM Flag

    Writing options is leveraging.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Feb 12, 2015 10:07 AM Flag

    Fund Strategy

    Under normal market conditions, the Trust will invest at least 80% of its total assets in equity securities issued by companies that are engaged in the Utilities or Infrastructure business segments. The Trust considers the Utilities business segment to include products, technologies and services connected to the management, ownership operation, construction, development or financing of facilities used to generate, transmit or distribute electricity, water, natural resources or telecommunications and the Infrastructure business segment to include companies that own or operate infrastructure assets or that are involved in the development, construction, distribution or financing of infrastructure assets. The Trust may invest in companies of any market capitalization located anywhere in the world. Although the Trust expects to invest primarily in companies located in developed countries, it may invest in companies located in emerging markets. Equity securities in which the Trust may invest include common stocks, preferred stocks, convertible securities, warrants, depository receipts, exchange-traded funds, equity interests in real estate investment trusts, Canadian Royalty Trusts and MLPs. The Trust will not invest more than 25% of the value of its total assets in MLPs. As part of its investment strategy, the Trust currently intends to employ a strategy of writing (selling) covered call options on a portion of the common stocks in its portfolio, writing (selling) covered put options on a portion of the common stocks in its portfolio and, to a lesser extent, writing (selling) covered call and put options on indices of securities and sectors of securities. This option strategy is intended to generate current gains from option premiums as a means to enhance distributions payable to the Trusts shareholders. In addition to the option strategies discussed above, the Trust may engage in Strategic Transactions in an effort to hedge all or a portion of the portion

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Feb 11, 2015 8:50 PM Flag

    You won't see 179 this week. It might touch $190 in AM. Back to 205 by 1pm. Close at 195-200.

    I'll buy at 190 if it gets there before 11am.

    It will be below 150 this year however. Maybe lower. There is gong to be a big flush sometime. My guess ....July. Whole market is going to give up 25% at some point.

    Be prepared.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Feb 10, 2015 9:45 PM Flag

    BUI does use leverage

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Feb 10, 2015 5:12 PM Flag

    That sounded awful. Worse than even this pessimistic shareholder thought it would be.

    The stock will probably go up now.

  • Is GNW's board a bunch of vampires? What's taking so long?

  • Reply to


    by lucky_lenny_1964 Feb 7, 2015 8:28 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Feb 10, 2015 9:08 AM Flag

    Actually, my total return over the full 4 years is just about 2%. Obviously, a far cry from the 10-14% dividend return I would have had if the stock price hadn't dropped. I look at it like owning a 10yr. bond with a better chance for capital appreciation. As long as the share price stays above $10 +/- I will be adding to my overall return with every dividend. For me...just me now....for every $1 in stock price appreciation I will add over 10% to my return. If the stock gets back to the $12-14 range, which I do expect over the next several years I will have doubled my money. I invest in NLY vs. in junk bonds. NLY is definitely better than a junk bond. I get a higher dividend and chance for higher capital appreciation.

  • Nice. I'll take it.
    They report this week, Thursday I think. High end estimates are for .51 cents in earnings. They have surprised upward every qtr. that I've owned the stock....a little over a year.
    I expect them to exceed expectations again. Maybe .60 or more. I think announcing the .40 cent special dividend before the earnings (rather than at the time) is a particular sign of pending good news.
    Would like to see the next leg up.
    HOLI is seesawing its way up. Higher highs and higher lows. Bottom left to upper right. Nice chart. Jimmy Rogers still owns the shares. If he's in...I'm in.

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