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warnbeeb 37 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Apr 8, 1998
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  • Reply to

    next post-earnings conference call

    by lucky_lenny_1964 Jul 4, 2015 9:16 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb 11 hours ago Flag

    With almost 1 billion shares outstanding they would need to purchase 50-100 million shares to make any sort of dent in the share price/BV. That would entail a $500 mil to $1 billion investment. They don't have that kind of cash unless they suspend the dividend. At .30/qtr./share that would mean at least...at least....2 qtrs. worth of dividends. If they did that it would undermine the REIT structure. Income investors would flee. It totally goes against the core basis for the company existing in the first place.
    They could borrow money to buy back the shares I guess. But then, they have to repay the debt. With what?

    No....forget about it. This company will NOT being buying back their own shares. Makes no sense.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Jul 2, 2015 1:43 PM Flag

    They RAISED the dividend last Fall even after oil prices had started to drop and the legal issues were far from settled. Now that the oil price has recovered (but no assurance it won't retest) and the legal clouds are cleared up you think they will cut it? Ummm....I don't think so. More than anything, they spread these penalties out over 18 years. Way better than anyone was expecting. No big whack to the balance sheet today. Spread the risk out. The value of the money they pay the states with will go down, but the actual dollar numbers will stya the same. Over time, it's better for BP. I'm sure the states wanted all their money now, but that would bankrupt the company. Better to milk the cow than kill it.
    This is like the tobacco company settlements back in the 90's. They took off after that.
    BP is a much, much better investment and dividend payer today than it was yesterday. Everything about the company is much better today.
    I expect $50/sh by early '16. Back in the 70's in 2-3 years.
    BP is the most undervalued large cap, energy company in the world.
    Some people talking up PBR.....but that company can't hold a candle to BP. BP is more like XOM. My biggest fear is they will go buy COP or something like that.....
    Hoping someone buys them, but realistically, I think they're too big to be bought.

  • Reply to

    Upside and takeover are huge..

    by insurancefla1 May 13, 2015 11:36 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 30, 2015 11:33 PM Flag

    I am a DVM and think JAGX is a long way from being successful. Even if their calf scours product works great the market for it is pretty small. If they can get a canine product out there that might be more profitable. But still, their market cap is around $40 million now. They might have a couple anti diarrheal products that might generate $5-10 million in sales. The conventional, current approaches to treating diarrhea in dogs work most of the time. The market for intractable watery diarrhea in dogs is insignificant IMHO.
    I read article that they might have a product for type II diabetes in cats down the road. That.....might be a money maker. Wait for news on that.

  • warnbeeb by warnbeeb Jun 30, 2015 11:59 AM Flag

    Don't know how much lower it will go, but the company isn't going bankrupt. Sheesh....get a life.

    The market is bad right now and will probably stay that way for a few more weeks. IMHO, MEI will be in the $30s come EOY.

  • Reply to

    DRIP Plan Honest opinions

    by adamandamermaid Jun 28, 2015 1:30 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 29, 2015 9:13 PM Flag

    I DRIP my shares in a tax deferred account. For years now. I don't expect to sell my COP shares.....if ever. When I retire I will take the dividends as cash and live off them the best I can. I have about a dozen stocks like this. T, RRD, BP, QCOM, KKR, GE, some CLE's......painful to see sell offs like we're going through here but I know I'll get more shares cheaper. JMHO.

  • Reply to

    So .9000 seems to be holding

    by yinkeyc Jun 26, 2015 2:24 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 27, 2015 12:02 PM Flag

    Not a problem. I too will be interested in why 3 mil. shares trade all at once. I'm more inclined it was a "buy me out" vs a "I want in" deal.
    Hope it works out.

  • Reply to

    So .9000 seems to be holding

    by yinkeyc Jun 26, 2015 2:24 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 27, 2015 10:25 AM Flag

    My interest is purely observational. I took a flier on a quick trade. I missed it. That morning it jumped .30 cents or so was my chance. It would have been a tiny profit. I was hoping that a 25% move in one day would draw in the public who just saw NOR pop up on a "biggest % gainers" screen and try to ride a quick ride back to $2. Alas...the stock got dumped just as fast. That told me that smarter, more nimble money than mine was on top of this stock. I believe there is some really, really bad news on the horizon. This reminds me of how some of the coal stocks trade. Think Kodak...I got stuck in that one too.
    I think NOR is heading lower and into oblivion. It doesn't go under $1 because of bad luck...or investor misunderstanding. It goes there because the big guys who know what they're doing are trying to profit off it's demise.
    This is a day trading stock now. It's not investable IMHO.
    GLTU.

  • Reply to

    So .9000 seems to be holding

    by yinkeyc Jun 26, 2015 2:24 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 26, 2015 2:54 PM Flag

    At the risk of belaboring the obvious....yeah...it's holding for now. Look at the chart. Every piece of news that's come out since Apollo sold out has resulted in a little bump followed by more selling. It's right at it's 52 week, multi year low. Bottoms are made over time. Not price. IMHO, this ain't the bottom. The bad news. The really bad news hasn't come out yet.

  • Reply to

    what about the R/S

    by fwilder81 Jun 25, 2015 3:03 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 26, 2015 1:41 PM Flag

    There will be roughly 9.5 million shares outstanding after the split at somewhere around $6.50 to $7/sh...depending on the price at the time.
    Reverse splits rarely help small, little followed companies that have cratered.
    Yes, AIG and C did reverse splits after the '08-'09 stock market debacles, but those were very, very big companies with huge floats of stock and enormous liquidity. Even after their splits they had tons of shares left to trade.
    This move by a company like NOR strikes of desperation to A. keep the stock price up so they can remain listed B. don't violate certain loan covenants that might be violated if the stock is delisted or trading at such and such a low price (a guess)..and C. to reduce the number of shares that short sellers and activist/hedge funds can use to profit from the company's current misfortune. This company is someone's sights. "Ready! Aim!.....Fi.....

    Apollo got out before the really bad news hits. It's coming. It hasn't been stated yet...but it's coming.

    Frankly, if I was a betting man I would short this stock AFTER the reverse split. I own no shares. I took a quick 20% haircut in NOR in a 1 week trade that immediately went south on me. I got out before it got worse. I'm just here as a passive observer. Ignore me if you want. This is just theater to me right now.

    Look at it. The reverse split? The news? The stock is going down again. $1 appears to be a ceiling. The floor? Somewhere lower than this. GLTA....I think if you're long you're going to need it.

  • Reply to

    Buy out for $3 very soon!!!

    by boris.dark Jun 23, 2015 10:06 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 23, 2015 1:52 PM Flag

    Make that $300 mil. for the stock and assuming $666 mil. of the debt. The cost of acquiring NOR is $966 mil.

    Even if someone gave you the company for free....you still would owe debt holders $666 mil.

    Why did I bother with a Schwab rating of "B"...buy? Stupid. My own fault. Sold out with a quick 20% loss.

  • Reply to

    666 Million in DEBT??????????????

    by call8675309jennie Jun 22, 2015 8:23 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 23, 2015 10:03 AM Flag

    Blackstone...NOR is NOT profitable. When I look at them the last time they money was 2012. The estimates are for losses (pennies, but losses nonetheless) for this year and a possible return to profitability (again..only pennies) maybe...in 2016.
    Yep..it's up 7 cents this morning...but where will it end the day?
    NOR is now a penny stock. These things don't triple. No one buys out a stock under $1 for double their value. Nobody.
    The only way this stock recovers if they make some huge restructuring deal that tweaks the markets interest. That could happen, but it's the only way you'll see a return.
    IMHO, you will see a dilution (very, very bad idea) that will raise some cash for the company. No one will underwrite more debt for them. Their debt limit has already been surpassed. No other aluminum producer will but this debt laden cow. Maybe, someone will buy a piece of the company if they can avoid taking on any of their debt. Or...they file chapter 9 or 11 to save the company, workers and managements jobs while the shareholders are hung out to dry. Are insiders buying their own stock at these prices. They should be if it's going to turn around. Watch insiders.
    They need some sort of management hocus-pocus to turn this around. I have no skin in the game. I wish you guys luck.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 22, 2015 5:09 PM Flag

    There 69 million shares.
    The company has $666 million in debt. That's roughly $10/sh in debt.
    Buy the company for $2/sh....that's $140 million dollars. But whoever buys it has to pay back the $666 million in debt too.

    You gotta factor in the debt they owe when figuring out who, what or why anyone would buy them.

    It's not going to be bought out at $2/ share let alone $3. It's not. It's just not.

    I sold out this morning. It's going lower. Apollo knew something bad was coming and skeedaddled. The rest of us just don't know yet, but it's coming. GLTA.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 22, 2015 10:34 AM Flag

    It probably will now that I sold out. Took a quick 25% loss in 10 days. Schwab took the rating off of NOR. It was a "B", Buy until today.

    Thanks Scwab....for nothing.

    I think NOR is going bankrupt for what it's worth.

    It's going to a dime over the next yr. It will be delisted.

  • Anybody here own it in a taxable account? Are they qualified dividends or not?
    I'm trying to decide which account to own it in. If they're qualified I have the option of the lower tax rate in a taxable account.

    Thanks in advance.

  • warnbeeb by warnbeeb Jun 19, 2015 11:02 AM Flag

    It's not going to be bought out for $2 or $3.
    The way you get back to $2 is they find a way to restructure and perhaps sell an asset that gives the company a floor.
    Right now the market is pricing NOR as though it's going to die.

  • Reply to

    I just bought 1250 shares at 1.01

    by ricardo_ricky40 Jun 18, 2015 11:27 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 19, 2015 7:45 AM Flag

    It is not profitable. It just eliminated its paltry dividend. They are looking at strategic alternatives. Hopefully that means restructuring their massive debt and selling some assets. The one thing this company has is physical plants and manufacturing assets that might be worth something to a buyer.
    Hopefully management is not considering bankruptcy in order to save their own jobs and......those of the employees. In bankruptcy everything goes on. The company operates and the employees and management get paid. Just the shareholders get zapped.
    Hopefully the stock doesn't go down another 10%+ today.

  • Reply to

    I just bought 1250 shares at 1.01

    by ricardo_ricky40 Jun 18, 2015 11:27 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 18, 2015 6:22 PM Flag

    I just bought last week at $1.27. I should have sold yesterday on the bounce, but I thought the funding news might see some follow through today. Wrong. Now it's lower than before the financing news broke. Now I'm thinking I got to get lucky. Reverse split talk is always a killer. No company considering a RS does well in my experience.
    The problem with a buyout is the debt. Yeah, the market cap is cheap, but a buyer has to assume hundreds of millions of debt. The bauxite feud/taxes with Jamaica can literally kill the company. As far as Jamaica is concerned someone other than NOR will pay them what they want so why make a deal? That issue is on hold for now but it's far from settled.
    The energy supply issue is not going to hurt for a couple 3 yrs. but they have to negotiate another one. Time? when? How much more? Again uncertainty.
    The price is so cheap now I suspect no big hitter will want anything to do with NOR. Best hope is a private equity house takes a stab, but the Apollo (that's their name right?) Group just sold out. So why would someone else?

    I'm guessing NOR is heading to lower lows and eventual bankruptcy. Sheesh I hard Schwab. They had if rated a "B".....buy. Looks like they're wrong again. They have it rated a "C" hold thus week.

  • Reply to

    BUI sold out of this

    by beringer94 May 8, 2015 9:46 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 11, 2015 6:21 PM Flag

    I don't own many bonds. I'm mostly an income investor. I don't own any individual utilities, unless you call T a utility. BUI meets my income needs in the utility sector without owning any one stock. The 12% discount to NAV with nerarly an 8% payout is compelling. Unless they can't keep the payout where it is I'll just keep holding. In several years I'll have dripped enough dividends that I'll have a nifty little monthly income stream. GLTU.

  • Reply to

    BUI sold out of this

    by beringer94 May 8, 2015 9:46 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 11, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    Not true. BUI writes options on their holdings. Approximately 30% of the .121 cent monthly distribution is short term capital gains from the leveraging of their holdings. It's all disclosed. They collect dividends, they buy and sell shares and write call options. They do not short stocks.

    So it's about 8 cents in pure dividends and 4 cents in STCG. In a a tax deferred account there is no tax implications. I've been DRIPing my monthly distribution from the day I bought BUI. It currently sells for almost 12% below its NAV. The monthly income is very reliable. Right now is a good time to add. Compelling buy for conservative income investors.

  • Reply to

    Jim Rogers

    by cdsteak May 22, 2015 3:46 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 5, 2015 12:56 PM Flag

    My guess is they're just stretching this out until another miner buys them out then it gets mined. I have a small investment here. Just a long term calm option on this thing hitting the jackpot. I'm not sell g or buying more.

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