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Parker-Hannifin Corporation Message Board

warnbeeb 47 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 25, 2015 4:06 PM Member since: Apr 8, 1998
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  • Reply to

    My first target here is 14 and change

    by madtradder666 May 12, 2015 6:04 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Aug 25, 2015 4:06 PM Flag

    Well, here it is ...sub $14 today. Dividend is now 8%. Goes ex in a week or so. That means another .30 haircut coming...the it will be retuned to shareholder.

    This is getting obscene. Not sure whether this is an overreaction or harbinger of a serious divided cut and more sinking into oblivion.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Aug 24, 2015 3:46 PM Flag

    With oil this cheap nobody makes money. The sovereigns, like the Saudis cannot run their countries with oil this low. If the price doesn't rebound there will be serious turmoil somewhere in the world. Someone...a Putin?....might go crazy and start some sort of military conflagration....then....you will see the price go up.

    I'm not predicting it so much as expecting something baaaaad...to happen if oil stays down here for months and months.

  • Reply to

    Sell RRD and buy QUAD

    by warnbeeb Aug 5, 2015 9:59 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Aug 19, 2015 10:29 AM Flag

    The way I look at QUAD is that it is closely held and the insiders regard the dividend as sacrosanct. They want that dividend. They are cash flow wh_ores and their main goal is to maintain and grow cash flow to keep the dividends glowing. So far...so good.
    I own QUAD as a bond proxy. This is not a growth company. It's an income producing investment.

  • He's a director and is single largest individual shareholder at around 550,000 shares. He is also a director of Oil States International which used o be a 10% shareholder of CVEO. They sold everything.

    If he holds on or buys more...good. If he sells...or is selling....watch out.

    Fidelity,Vanguard, Blackrock and Millennium Partners are biggest institutions. Only the last one would seem like traders. I doubt the 1st 3 think selling CVEO now I a good idea. They're too big.

  • I have no idea where it will bottom, but wherever it is it's probably going to languish there for awhile. No need to average in or down. I do not expect a V shape recovery. If at all, a big low, slow U....or W bottom. Kinda sad. Nice company.

  • Reply to

    All we need is OPEC to cut production.

    by ride2_win Aug 5, 2015 8:21 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Aug 15, 2015 2:55 PM Flag

    I do' but not until a little rally then retest the low....wherever that is. Just doesn't seem like capitulation yet.....oil that is, not CVEO. Waiting for a flush

  • Reply to

    All we need is OPEC to cut production.

    by ride2_win Aug 5, 2015 8:21 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Aug 15, 2015 11:47 AM Flag

    I don't own CVEO...yet. Just started following it. I'm sort of surprised that it's this low. BV of $7. Over $3/sh in cash. Short term debt and current liabilities about = to acct.s receivable. Long term debt of around $700 mil but sales that, even as they are cratering, exceed that. This stock...currently...is selling for about 1x free cash flow. Pretty amazing. Granted the market doesn't think they will remain CF positive much longer if this continues. Eliminating the dividend was smart. Cash and cash flow are king.
    Most of CVEO's business is in Canada and Australia. Obviously this is all influenced by oil price. Today's Barron's has some guy saying $20/brl is imminent. That's 50% lower than now. I'm of the opine that oil is finding it's bottom. This was the double bottom right in here. Jeffrey Gundlach (big bond guy) warns that sub $40 oil means there's something overwhelming bad going on in world economy. According to him, nobody makes money with oil that low. Even Saudis.
    IMHO, the big buck$ boys are stringing this thing out. Enormous amount of futures are being unwound currently and lots of traders are getting gored. I think this oil price is going to plunge very quickly and just wring out the longs....then it will snap back. The big flush hasn't happened yet. It's coming.
    CVEO, might go below $1. Watch their balance sheet. If they stay CF positive they will survive and this stock could be a 10 bagger in 1-2 yrs.
    I might start taking small 1000-2000 share bites. Forgive my wordiness. I just need to get this out. I already own a bunch of oil stocks. Oil services...like this one.....should bounce more than actual drillers IMHO when the turn comes. In past stocks like BAS and BRS really soared. Much moreso than the COP, XOM BP etc.

  • Reply to

    NLY, RSI = 74

    by chuck_960 Aug 14, 2015 1:47 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Aug 14, 2015 2:28 PM Flag

    The chart has turned positive...that's for sure. Approaching the 200 dma around $10.75. The 20 dma has decidedly crossed above the 50. All good.

    Would like to see NLY start looking like it will trade more reasonably around BV. Huge discount is finally shrinking. Doubt it ever trades above BV...but within 5-10% would be just fine by me.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Aug 14, 2015 2:25 PM Flag

    Just hit $50 by Sept. 11 and I'll be happy.

  • .26 coming back in September. RRD is a hold until the breakup in late '16. Collect the dividend til then.

  • Reply to

    Climb aboard the $13.24 train

    by wyattearp111 Aug 11, 2015 2:33 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Aug 12, 2015 9:56 AM Flag

    I think it's pretty much stopped going down. With Fed rate hike imminent I see NLY basing right around this $10 area. If...If...the FED does not raise rates...and they might not if world economy/markets continue to dither...then NLY will bounce. I don' see NLY ever trading above book value...ever. But a 5-10% discount to BV will be a nice place to settle.
    I've owned NLY for 5 yrs. ad have DRIPPED all my dividends. I'm in the black believe it or not. I think my annual average return is around 1.5% which is better than a money market. Over time I expect NLY to be a $10-11 stock with a 10% dividend as far as the eye can see.

  • warnbeeb by warnbeeb Aug 12, 2015 9:13 AM Flag

    I am in the middle of owning YHOO for the 3rd time. I've never made money in thistock. B are two other stocks that no matte when I ow them they o down, down, down until I can't stand it anymore and sell them just to ease the pain. Even though they've gone up some since, they havn't gotten back to where I would have broken even.
    I'm into YHOO at $40...after it came down from $50's.
    I don't care how bad it gets this time. I'll hold onto it. If I buy more I guarantee you it will keep going down....so consider that my little gift to my fellow shareholders.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Aug 10, 2015 1:56 PM Flag

    I'm expecting a second test of this low...eventually. Need a real, thumpy, heavy volume double bottom followed with high volume reversal.
    This smells like a bottom and reversal....but....eh.....I'm not buying more yet.

  • warnbeeb by warnbeeb Aug 5, 2015 2:24 PM Flag

    Last leg down. Worst stock in SP 500. This company will not go bankrupt. Too many people will lose too much money. Won't happen.
    In 1 yr. this stock will be 2x higher.
    In 5 yr. it will be back to $30.
    If Carl Icahn sells I'll worry. But my guess is he might add.

  • QUAD's report was not as bad as reaction is suggesting. Company is closely held and they have terrific FCF that covers their dividend amply. I liked RRD for it's income. QUAD yields 7.5% now. It's the better play in this sector now.

  • Same industry/sector. RRD is splitting up. QUAD missed but their FCF is still excellent. 7.5% dividend is safe.

    Don't miss this opportunity.

  • I've never had good luck when I stock I owned split off another separate trading company. This one will split into 3 companies. Phooey.
    I think Cramer saying positive things about it is just spinning. He's been hyping this stock for 1-2 yr. and it's done nothing. Now he has a reason to crow...for a little while...then ignore it.
    If this stock gets above $20 (new 52 wk high) before the split I'll dump it. I bought it mostly as a dividend play. I'll be interested how the dividend gets treated by these 3 companies. I see the total dividend paid by the 3 together being cut. I'm certain a big part of their shareholder base is income investors. If the income/payout drops a lot will sell.
    I'll hang in there and keep collecting the dividend for now, but I hope I was wrong not to sell this morning when it touched $19. I missed that. It won't surprise me if the stock doesn't see that price again.

  • All the dividends that get DRIPPED will be at today's closing price. Over $10. Then the retreat will begin. They manipulate this stock at dividend time to lessen the blow of DRIPped shares.
    Sell $10 calls. The price won't see $10 for months...starting tomorrow.

  • COP just raised their dividend 1 penny. Not much, but it hardly signals they're going to cut it.
    I'm of the opinion that they know more than analysts do what the price is going to do and they plan accordingly.
    This is ugly. But I'm holding onto my COP and will collect the dividends and re-invest them as I have for years. My cost basis is down in the low $30s. It ain't going there.
    COP's dividend is going to hold, This stock is wicked cheap.

  • Reply to

    Way Oversold at this point after beating numbers

    by mystk7 Jul 24, 2015 9:21 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jul 24, 2015 9:36 AM Flag

    This stock is done until that Alzheimer's drug proves to work. The all time high is it for the foreseeable future. I don't see it back to $350 this year. IMHO it will be a tax loss trade for the end of the year. Any rally will be sold into. B is yesterday's news until they come up with something new. I don't see anyone taking them over. Phooey. My only consolation is I only have a small position. Dreadful.

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