I also have no position but follow and post here. I have seen this exact scenario play out with other Chinese companies. A PE of 1 or 2, selling for a discount to cash, great growth. The numbers look like a sure thing and based on the numbers alone you should borrow against your house and take cash advances on your credit cards to buy this stock. But I have seen it several times, the companies just fizzle and disappear. So I follow just to see but I wouldn't buy a single share based on what I've seen with other Chinese companies in the past. It makes me even more doubtful when insiders have dumped half of their shares when the company sells for 50% of its cash balance.
I keep following this because the numbers look fantastic but I have seen other Chinese companies with equally good numbers that just disappear. They have a lot of cash, great earnings, sell at an unbelieveable discount and then "POOF" they no longer issue financial statements and you can get no information and the stock price goes to next to nothing and no trades. I'd be very careful.
If I needed money, I wouldn't sell a stock that was selling for half of the company's cash per share and at a PE of 1.5 unless I felt the numbers were bogus. He also sold 75,000 shares at $1.30 last December.
There is no way that I would consider two data points like that "a trend". If it was something like 8 consecutive years or 14 out of the past 15 years then maybe, but even then I wouldn't make a trade based on it.
Yes, and gave a little more today. I don't think that there will be much upside until LF can post some better earnings numbers.
It does look like it is waking up. It's up more than 10% today on fairly light volume. There is no question that if the numbers that they are reporting are true, then this is probably a big-time BUY. I am still not a believer but will continue to watch the stock.
The Motley Fool article http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/05/29/is-leapfrog-enterprises-inc-destined-for-greatness.aspx is interesting. I think that it paints a too good of a picture though. It does a lot of comparisons to 3 years ago that are decently favorable. If it made the same comparisons to 2 years ago or to a year ago then things wouldn't look nearly as good. The current forward looking PE of 28 is too generous.
You definitely have a point. That's one more reason not to buy this stock. But I also do doubt the numbers and the behind the scenes agreements. I've seen several examples of Chinese stocks with PE's of less than 2 and trading at less than cash in the bank and everything has a way of just going poof and it's gone. And it isn't that they start losing money it's they just stop issuing financial statements and the stock drops to nothing.
I agree with his strategy in most cases. I have owned stocks where all of the financial numbers were outstanding but the price sat there for years and then skyrocketed, well worth the wait. It happens a lot especially with small companies that are "off the radar". The difference here is that it is a Chinese company and many investors don't trust the financials. The financials may be legit but I have my doubts. If the numbers are real, then this stock is a HUGE bargain. I will continue to watch the company but I have so little faith that the financial statements are real that I do not own a single share.
A followup to what I just posted about not trusting Chinese company financial statements, I owned Lotus Pharmaceuticals (LTUS) at one point. It had really good financials, not as good as NUIN but very good. It traded as high as $7 and it was $1-$3 for a while. It is now at 2 cents and I don't think it even issues financial statements anymore although their company website is still up with an Investor Relations section that say "No Data". It is not that the business went south, it was bogus numbers and secret deals that did it in.
I agree with the first part of your statement but I'm not so sure about the balance sheet never lies part of the statement. If this was an American company with a fully transparent financial picture then it would be trading at much higher price than it does now. Heck, it has $5 per share in cash and a PE of less than 2. The reason that is doesn't trade higher is because investors (myself included) are reluctant to buy a Chinese stock because they question the financial statements. If I had full faith in their financial statements then I would invest a large part of my portfolio assets.
I've read their Balance Sheet, their Income Statement, their Cash Flows statement and skimmed their notes. It's a strong balance sheet as far as I can tell and it does add to the value. What are you suggesting?
I don't ever buy or hold based on takeover rumors. First, the majority of the time they are only rumors and nothing ever happens. Second, if there is any truth to the rumors then I seriously doubt that I, as a small investor 3,000 miles from Wall Street, will hear about it before the big boys have driven the price up.
Swallowing the cash and going dark is what investors are afraid of. That is why this company trades at less than 50% of its cash in the bank and has a PE of less than 2. There are also restriction on converting Chinese Renminbi to US$ and certain other currency so they may not be able to pay a dividend even if they wanted to. On paper this company looks like a steal but it is a HUGE risk.
They need to do something to increase shareholder value. If I am doing my math right, they have $5 per share in cash and the PE is miniscule and they are trading for $1.85. It's unbelieveable.
I've never heard of a company changing its fiscal year to coincide it with a buyer before the buyout is announced.
It is tough to pay 150 times trailing earnings but if the continues to grow at the current pace for a couple of years the current price might be cheap. The fact that this company is growing earnings at an extreme rate is a big plus, if it was just a matter of top line revenue growth then I wouldn't interested.
I agree that it is holding in the mid $6's because of their balance sheet. For that reason, I don't think that there is a huge downside. I just don't see a lot of upside either.
It has nothing to do with weak hands. I frequently add to positions when the stock price decreases after I've bought. The difference here is that the company has performed miserably. People on these board have talked about LF as a single digit PE stock and what a value that it is. But, if you use management's most optimistic 2014 EPS estimate, the forward looking PE is about 27 even at the currently low price. I don't care if they have a great product or even if they have great sales what I care about is the bottom line and they just have not delivered there and that's why the stock price is where it is.
I'm sure that it is frustrating not getting called back. But I wouldn't hold it against them that they didn't respond to every unsolicited online application. It would be a little different if it was an advertised job that you had applied for, but even then, I don't necessarily think that a response is necessary. Some companies don't even send you a letter when you don't get a job offer after an interview, and that does warrant a response from the company in my opinion.
I am selling GPC this week but not because I think it is a bad stock. I sold some covered calls months ago that are in the money and will be exercised on Friday. I've owned the stock since December and the calls gave me a small almost guaranteed profit and the dividend for a couple of quarters. I'll continue to watch the stock and may repurchase if the price dips.