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Waste Connections Inc. Message Board

watchthedownside 1408 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 22, 2013 11:57 AM Member since: Sep 27, 2006
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  • watchthedownside watchthedownside Feb 22, 2013 11:57 AM Flag

    I look at much different forward-looking statistics, outflows, etc. so to carry this conversation further would be like an apple talking to an of luck

  • Reply to

    Anyone focused on huge TNA outflows

    by watchthedownside Feb 21, 2013 9:31 PM
    watchthedownside watchthedownside Feb 22, 2013 11:49 AM Flag

    if you run the 2-year price chart for TNA in Yahoo finance (I do this to be consistent with my other analysis), the RSI at December 8 was 91.09 when TNA was at the February 19, 2013 peak in TNA at 84.07, the RSI had faded down to 66.15.....the TNA prices are all at close

  • Reply to

    Anyone focused on huge TNA outflows

    by watchthedownside Feb 21, 2013 9:31 PM
    watchthedownside watchthedownside Feb 22, 2013 11:45 AM Flag

    when you have a multi-month run up in SSO or TNA, with a couple of peaks up in RSI (again from 2-year price chart) into the 80's and 90's, then a fade in RSI down into the 60's as the price of SSO or TNA peaks several weeks later from the peak in RSI, you typically then have a multi week or month sell off. The severity of the selloff has a 0.68 correlation to the RSI at peak with SSO and a 0.86 correlation to the RSI at peak with TNA. In other words, the lower the RSI at peak, the worse the selloff that follows. The implied sell-off for TNA at the most recent peak is 50%+, but the std. dev. is wide and there are only five data points since 2007, so take all of this with a grain of salt. Also, one only knows if that was the peak in TNA in the rear view mirror, but when you combine it with some other metrics, namely the large outflows that occurred in January, it makes the most recent peak in TNA seem more likely, or at least close to the peak.

  • watchthedownside watchthedownside Feb 22, 2013 11:34 AM Flag

    fair enough in the very short term (a day or two) a bounce is inevitable.....but an early oversold in a market is more often a sign of things to come than a sign of a bottom based on my experience.

  • Reply to

    Anyone focused on huge TNA outflows

    by watchthedownside Feb 21, 2013 9:31 PM
    watchthedownside watchthedownside Feb 22, 2013 11:16 AM Flag

    i track rsi using the rolling 2-year TNA price chart.....14 is the default period

  • watchthedownside watchthedownside Feb 22, 2013 10:47 AM Flag

    weren't you the same guy saying that we were going to the moon right as the bottom fell out over the past few days....indeed you were.....I have been watching your comments for a long time and you are right as much as you are wrong, which is not that helpful

  • Reply to

    Anyone focused on huge TNA outflows

    by watchthedownside Feb 21, 2013 9:31 PM
    watchthedownside watchthedownside Feb 22, 2013 10:45 AM Flag

    the fact that no one has responded to my post with any intelligent commentary speaks volumes about the (lack of) quality of analysis done by folks posting here....all anyone is interested in is responding to hyperbole and conjecture.....thanks for telling me all I need to know about paying attention to anything any of you are writing!!

  • watchthedownside by watchthedownside Feb 21, 2013 9:31 PM Flag

    that took place mostly in January?? the median date was January 11 with an outflow of approx. $150mm
    typically such ETF outflows are 4-6 weeks early, which would put us at earlier this week for the beginning of a potential multi-week/month sell-off.....all told there have been large outflows that total the net assets of TNA over the span of just a month or so with no large inflows to speak of (just look at the TNA headlines).

    now i know most of you are day-traders - I am not. I shorted TNA in very large size at $85 back in February 2011 and covered on average at $40 later in 2011 (i was not smart enough to cover at the bottom)......i only short as a hedge as 1% to 2% negative carry every month more than pays for my hedge.

    this go around I am partially (only partially as I am still bullish longer-term) hedged around $78

    the other thing that concerns me greatly is the RSI of 66 at the recent peak for TNA, down from 80's and 91 on December 8, 2012 back when TNA was at much lower levels.....typically a more serious RSI-fade down into the 60's as TNA strongly peaks in price is not a great harbinger of things to other words, both the outflows and the weak RSI-fade as TNA peaked tells me that smart money was selling (early) as the patsies were buying

    while I know most of you only day trade tiny amounts of money over and over again, and that is why you are "buying the dip" in here, I would be interested in getting any thoughts as to any bullish signs that this was a quicky sell-off and it is statistics show otherwise.....they reflect a potential multi-week/month selloff that may be far worse than the called for 5% correction......i have absolutely no percentage in talking my position as I am net long the market......if I was net short, you would not be hearing from me as I believe it to be bad karma to needlessly jaw about my positions.

    thanks in advance for any constructive commentary

  • just curious.....i cannot find a reason, but it smells like Apple, where CFO sold 100% of his shares at $600/share

  • All of these need to be covered (probably over the next 2 months to 10 months) before we can move higher on a more sustainable basis......even if we head higher in the very short term.

  • Reply to

    market will crash from 1535 to 1430

    by ponzi_mania Jan 1, 2013 9:03 PM
    watchthedownside watchthedownside Jan 1, 2013 9:15 PM Flag

    technical violations at 1309, 1314, 1338, etc......the higher we go, the further we come back down to earth in the future

  • Reply to

    CNBC-"Bear trap network"

    by reverse_split_vxx Dec 31, 2012 10:07 PM
    watchthedownside watchthedownside Dec 31, 2012 10:32 PM Flag

    yes, sorry....forgot to add back average 1.5% dividend yield!!! (hope you were joking on this one).....12-year return for S&P with reinvested dividends was 1%, that for bearing 19% annual volatility!!! original point stands, and stands firm

  • Reply to

    CNBC-"Bear trap network"

    by reverse_split_vxx Dec 31, 2012 10:07 PM
    watchthedownside watchthedownside Dec 31, 2012 10:13 PM Flag

    Really???? We are at 1425 on the S&P 500 and it was at 1500 over 12 years ago.....and you are implying that somehow the Bulls have won the war??!!.....sounds like you got it backwards my friend.

  • watchthedownside by watchthedownside Dec 31, 2012 9:52 PM Flag

    The fiscal cliff was absolutely never discounted into the S&P 500.....normalized earnings for the index for 2013 are $96.30, which puts S&P500 at just under 15x looking forward into next year......too much optimism and closet optimism out there......definitely don't want to fight the Fed, but the Fed is only keeping the market from collapsing to 1100 to 1200 where it belongs......check out long-term relationship between S&P 500 and U.S. mergers and acquisitions dollar volume (and then look at corporate management's lower view of M&A activity into 2013) if you have any questions as to the accuracy of my comments.

  • stock down from $130 to $16 over the past few years

    nothing but disgust for the sector everywhere you look

    tons of negative articles, including a nice "pile on" article from bloomberg yesterday (if it's in the press, it's in the price)

    price to 10yr average earnings for ESI is around 4x relative to nearly 20x for the S&P 500

  • Reply to

    Bought TNA at $48.38

    by lusob09 Nov 15, 2012 10:39 AM
    watchthedownside watchthedownside Nov 20, 2012 1:09 AM Flag

    you are so full of crap.....i have seen you make horrible purchases that more than offset any of your good purchases....and I mean horrible never saw this sell off coming

  • .....could always get a little worse before it gets better, but don't forget pigs get slaughtered on both short and long side......good luck!!!

  • Reply to

    Good buy in the $2s

    by betasplen1 Nov 9, 2012 10:34 AM
    watchthedownside watchthedownside Nov 12, 2012 11:44 AM Flag

    Once you start giving some good analysis, you will earn a right to have an opinion......until then it is very painfully obvious that you are just guessing. I will not make any personal judgement's against you as I have never met you (nor have you met me). However, I have seen your professional investing thought process and it is not very good at all.

    I am long COCO and ESI and a small piece of APOL. I have been very negative on CECO since last October when it traded at $15 and COCO was at $1.50 (the two at best should trade at the same level). That being said, with CECO now at $2.80/share my negativity has officially ended.....however I will not be purchasing CECO shares (I would rather buy more of my existing holdings)

    CECO has no net cash, so stop fooling yourself fact, no company in the sector that I analyze has any net cash given the high level of "take or pay" operating leases. Anyone with some basic accounting skills should know this.

  • watchthedownside watchthedownside Nov 12, 2012 10:53 AM Flag

    The stock price reaction to the latest HTCH earnings, relative to the market's movements says that corp.raider_97 needs to look for a new vocation

  • Reply to

    looks like an ATM machine on a shortside

    by sfvip Nov 12, 2012 8:25 AM
    watchthedownside watchthedownside Nov 12, 2012 10:02 AM Flag

    comments like this help me, but perhaps not as you would like

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