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Osisko Mining Corporation Message Board

waterboy30100 28 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 12, 2014 11:26 AM Member since: Apr 30, 2013
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  • waterboy30100 waterboy30100 Mar 12, 2014 11:26 AM Flag

    I am not that negative on this Gary. I don't see us going back to the 2's. The momentum has clearly changed since late November and I think we are going up with the gold price. I do think the price from here on out will be tied to permitting. We still have not seen the next (last) newsletter from the ACOE, which will be the last update until the Draft EIS is published.... I think the newsletter could have a fairly big impact in the near term

    Sentiment: Buy

  • waterboy30100 waterboy30100 Mar 12, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    That would put the valuation at a little over $2B. I tend to believe it will have to be in the 3 to 4B range ($10 share price) based on valuation of OSK takeover price. Gary, perhaps the buyout notion is off the table ( for now) and perhaps this is more of an influence than Cramer... In any event I bought back yesterday what I sold in the $4.30s so I am fully in this thing again. We shall see...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Gold up but NG struggling......

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Sprott buying shares?

    by sampletestportfolio Mar 6, 2014 11:57 AM
    waterboy30100 waterboy30100 Mar 6, 2014 12:18 PM Flag

    Not to forget.. we should be getting something from the ACoE (newsletter discussing permitting update). They are way behind on the newsletter...... perhaps a very positive catalyst

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Sprott buying shares?

    by sampletestportfolio Mar 6, 2014 11:57 AM
    waterboy30100 waterboy30100 Mar 6, 2014 12:16 PM Flag

    I tend to believe this move is because of the ABX CEO interview (see Bloomberg), at least in the short term. However, a buyout offer could actually be in the works (I think less likely). Let's see how the volume holds up the next few days. If we get to 4 million a day for the rest of the week maybe something is really going to happen... (take over offer or sale by ABX)....

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Barrick will sell its half of Donlin in 2014

    by waterboy30100 Mar 4, 2014 9:58 PM
    waterboy30100 waterboy30100 Mar 5, 2014 1:41 PM Flag

    If you haven't already take a look at the interview on Bloomberg from the Barrick CEO. This is the most insightful and important news I have heard about where this whole thing will go. If you listen carefully .. he is saying that in the near term they are optimizing what they have and this could include selling more assets in cases were those assets could do better in other hands. Whatever you think or make of this. listen to this interview....

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Barrick will sell its half of Donlin in 2014

    by waterboy30100 Mar 4, 2014 9:58 PM
    waterboy30100 waterboy30100 Mar 5, 2014 10:37 AM Flag

    Ray,
    A month ago you, I and Gary would have been the only ones corresponding. Look at all the replies on this post over the last hours. Says that something will happen fairly soon (maybe by the summer) and the stock price speaks for itself. Regardless of where you stand, NG and Donlin are worth a lot more than what the market thinks at the moment. 10 to 12 is definitely in the cards for a buy out if gold keeps going higher. I think our patience will pay off.. it already has for me. I am holding on for more gains.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Barrick will sell its half of Donlin in 2014

    by waterboy30100 Mar 4, 2014 9:58 PM
    waterboy30100 waterboy30100 Mar 5, 2014 1:29 AM Flag

    Of course this could mean they will take the money they have a reshuffle it towards Donlin. But, what I think it really means is they will take money from Donlin and try to optimize what they already have in the pipeline. We shall see....

    Sentiment: Buy

  • From Barrick CEO today:

    Barrick, which last month forecast its 2014 gold output would be the lowest in nine years, sold about $1 billion of assets in the past eight months, suspended construction of its delayed and overbudget Pascua-Lama project and started closing its Pierina mine in Peru. More changes are being considered to improve returns, Sokalsky said.

    “There are some opportunities that we have and it’s not just about selling assets -- it’s about optimizing the assets that we have,” he said at a Bloomberg event during the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada convention in Toronto. “It’s about doing better with our assets. It’s not just about looking at our highest-cost assets.”

    My prediction they sell their half of Donlin to improve balance sheet this year.... It makes all the more sense given what the CEO said....so what price?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    ABX should bid for NG on Monday.

    by gnik4luap Feb 20, 2014 9:40 AM
    waterboy30100 waterboy30100 Feb 24, 2014 11:09 AM Flag

    That would be a heck of deal for ABX. $3B is the minimum which would put us near 8 to 9. I don't think anything less would be acceptable to NG. Permitting (if we believe what we heard in the conference call) is on track as well. Cost to build was estimated at the peak of the last gold cycle (see FS estimates). ABX stock... I would rather have shares of GG...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Sell Ng here?

    by garymcurtis8888 Feb 15, 2014 1:15 PM
    waterboy30100 waterboy30100 Feb 17, 2014 1:37 PM Flag

    Gary,
    I think there are more things to be positive about regarding NGs prospects. I have to say though I was disappointed in the conference call last week. It gave us no more clarity regarding the pipeline and other permitting issues. I thought we were going to hear more and the analysts who had questions were very passive as usual. They only touched on the very surface of the issues. I have listened on some other conference calls and this analyst crowd watching NG is very lame.
    I still have confidence in management but I think they owe us a lot more on the situation (gas pipeline and other cost savings initiatives for construction). So, I am keeping one eye open at night on this. I have slowly cut some shares over the last 3 weeks as I said before. Not a large percentage but just in case this thing goes below 3 again. I myself will not buy right now because NG has gone up to much over the last two weeks and I bought most of my shares much lower.
    However, I do think momentum suggests NG will go to 4 before it goes down to 3 again, unless gold gets destroyed. I believe far to many investors are starting to see the reality that NG is the number one takeout target when it comes to the next generation of large scale mines. Good to see both sides of this though so you can make adjustments if you have to.
    Lets see were gold is headed next.. I see its up almost 10 today.. If we get to 1375ish on Gold I think NG will be at 4 easily.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • waterboy30100 waterboy30100 Feb 15, 2014 2:56 PM Flag

    I was hoping I would read something like this on this board. Bought at 18.80 and sold at 22 figuring that the earnings would beat the price down to 19 or so. Never happened. Bad move on my part. I am hoping you are right and I can get back in early next week below were I went out. Thanks for sharing..

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Sell Ng here?

    by garymcurtis8888 Feb 15, 2014 1:15 PM
    waterboy30100 waterboy30100 Feb 15, 2014 2:51 PM Flag

    Gary,
    I have read several articles over the last several weeks (in SA) suggesting that the depletion rate for some of the large gold miners will force them to develop more large scale mines over the next 5 years. Given that NG is about 2 years away from getting all the permits needed, I think somebody will step up if ABX doesn't. I will see if I can dig up the one SA article that made the most sense and post it. Also, many of the large miners are uping their production but mining the highest grade ore. GG is a good case for this in order to reduce the AISC to levels that make sense. I think these factors refute any articles suggesting that the GGs of the world won't develop large scale projects (like NG). I am holding on to most of my NG for now. Did sell some at 3.25ish before earnings figuring we would bet 3 again and I could buy it back. But that didn't happen this time around. Volume was up and as we know the price held and actually went up. The stock price speaks for itself....

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Novagold's Cost of Production?

    by jcbrowns Feb 10, 2014 10:48 AM
    waterboy30100 waterboy30100 Feb 10, 2014 11:05 AM Flag

    Go to their website and look at any of their presentations and you will find the AISC and more. Realize its only a projection and many variables will go into capital costs. The biggest unknown is the gas pipeline. Others here on this board may have input on cost. They estimate $750ish but it could be higher but still very good when compared with other miners. Therefore, this company will be a major take out target if the gold prices continue to rise.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Takeover at $4.50-$5

    by gnik4luap Feb 10, 2014 9:02 AM
    waterboy30100 waterboy30100 Feb 10, 2014 10:12 AM Flag

    Given what is going on with OSK I would put the value around there too. However, I think that would be the initial offer and would go up from there. I think it could go up to 7 or so with the current price or 1350 gold. Then who knows what NG would agree to....

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Why the high volume????

    by garymcurtis8888 Feb 6, 2014 4:09 PM
    waterboy30100 waterboy30100 Feb 6, 2014 11:51 PM Flag

    I noticed the same thing and not sure. Could be that the update is coming from the ACOE for the EIS. I have been checking every morning. Strong selling at the beginning but somebody stepped up and bought and price held pretty good all day.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    SA Articles

    by waterboy30100 Jan 31, 2014 12:43 PM
    waterboy30100 waterboy30100 Jan 31, 2014 3:37 PM Flag

    And NEM using less conservative numbers was killed today.. 10 percent down. Maybe if it hits around 4 percent div I will buy a little. Yes either way I think owning NG is a safer bet for now. Wonder how ABX will get punished in the coming months or other majors.. Today's action for NEM is terrible Agree ABX seems to be better off for now due to their moves so far

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    SA Articles

    by waterboy30100 Jan 31, 2014 12:43 PM
    waterboy30100 waterboy30100 Jan 31, 2014 2:06 PM Flag

    Yes, that crowd is out there too. But, the last five years have changed things considerable. My son had to move to another State to find a job. He should have been able to find one here but things got really bad here for awhile. That story has played out all over the country. People are actually moving to N. Dakota.. Never would have envisioned that 5 years ago... I will check on Senator Murray. Haven't heard about him. Thanks for the insight.. I will research.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    SA Articles

    by waterboy30100 Jan 31, 2014 12:43 PM
    waterboy30100 waterboy30100 Jan 31, 2014 1:35 PM Flag

    BTW.. I never said this thing would go up to $10. I think $4 or 5 is realistic if permtting goes smoothly. That would put the company at about $2.5 Billion. just about where OSK is being bought out at. It think that is about as high as any major would be willing to go for now. If gold goes to $1500 than we are talking higher price for NG. I don't see that happening in the current environment... but your guess is as good as mine.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    SA Articles

    by waterboy30100 Jan 31, 2014 12:43 PM
    waterboy30100 waterboy30100 Jan 31, 2014 1:30 PM Flag

    Gary,
    What has management done lately that makes you question them?. Not sure what you are referring to. Every single presentation they have stayed on track with their message. They seem to be very focused and on track with a well thought out plan for the next three years. Work on permtting and don't overspend.
    I am not worried about the permitting. I think pebble will allow NG to go under the radar screen. Gold may go down further. Maybe today, maybe in another month. However, the big miners need to survive and still produce gold and NG is one of a very assets that is large scale enough for them to develop. The generational mood you are talking about is called.... JOBS..... and that is exactly what this project would provide for the region and for Alaska... To your point that you wouldn't buy right now... I wouldn't either since the stock is up about 50 percent from its lows. Until the permitting update (newsletter) is available (I am guessing next month).. I am holding and won't add until we get some clarity from the ACOE

    Sentiment: Buy

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