I work in the mortgage business and have for 15 years or so. When rates are down and falling most of our business is refinances. When rates start climbing all of our business becomes purchase business. The purchases start flooding in as rates climb because people think that if they are planning to move at any time in the next several years then they need to do it before rates get higher. It has already started. The data the government reports is a lagging indicator - but every lender I know has more purchase business now than at any time in recent memory. 2015 and 2016 will be huge years for home builders.
but people trying to read stuff into the "trend" based on the government numbers?! That's just stupid. For one thing, the government numbers are a lagging indicator - and for another they include markets that DHI and other builders would not be caught dead in. In the markets they build in activity is becoming overwhelming. The same can be said for the other major builders - but DHI in particular.
DHI is killing it and is gaining momentum. As sales, revenues, profits, and dividends continue to grow the market will eventually figure it out. Planning to build a pile of shares before that happens.
Every stock has its bashers and idiots who are day trading a short position or dealing in options who will post negative stuff about it trying to protect their position. Just look at the numbers on DHI. This is headed MUCH higher. The question is when.
The numbers that are reported ALWAYS lag what is actually happening in the business. January and February were pretty slow on the home purchase front. It picked up in March. Now, business is insane. Not only are we overwhelmed but every competitor I talk to is in the same situation. If you don't believe me then call a mortgage company or realtor and ask what they are seeing in the market.