If they do get "bailed out" it would only be AFTER bankruptcy and after all the debt is cleared off the books and all the current shareholders are wiped out.
Market probably being cautious in advance of any Xmas terrorist attack on airliners...see these threats every year it seems.
I've found the best way to make $ in the stock market by far is to put high delta, in the money puts on stocks that trade high volume, like 1M plus a day on average, that show up on the SEC's Fail to Deliver List. Yep. It's like shooting fish in a barrel. Anybody that naked shorts has done their homework IMO. This garbage goes waaaaay down. DB is the next Lehman Brothers, brother!
Depends on where the S&P 500 is too. That and the price of Jet Fuel/Oil are the two biggest factors, and I'd weight the S&P 500 pretty heavily.
Seems to me you only hedge against oil to the point where it creates losses. I would think at this point the hedges are very very very cheap way out of the money call options on futures contracts for very high strike prices on oil in the 80's or 90's.
Seems to me you only hedge at an oil point where you would start to lose money. This is all hindsight pricing IMO and is already priced in. What is not priced in, is much of the near term and future drop in oil prices that really requires NO hedging at all, or if it is done, it's for years in advance, really cheap and at a really high options strike price.
Spot Jet Fuel has indeed dropped just about the same as crude oil since mid-June. I didn't check to see what DAL Fuel costs that they refine.
I agree. Cancel the flight and reimburse the two passengers with RT Conus tickets.
All the airlines have been sliding. Personally, people are general market nervous, with financial getting hit hard because they might own a whole bunch of bad Shale Energy Debt. That prompts people to panic and sell large baskets of stocks, regardless of what's really in the basket. There is at least the catalyst of earnings next Monday and smart money, not dumb ETF money knows that DAL will have a very nice upside surprise and next quarter will be even better because of the HUGE drop in fuel costs, which lag and won't be fully visible for this report.
In addition to the very high cost of the CDS protection going forward, and the fact that now everybody knows that the CDS were manipulated in the past, nobody is going to be buying any more of that CDS junk. Nobody gets fooled more than once with this so I agree, it's game over on selling more CDS junk. Owners of CDS expiring in Dec won't be rolling it over to March. So what is their choice? Sell the CDS expiring for whatever they can now? Try to force a credit event somehow before 20 Dec? We don't know how much in CDS is held for Mar and Oct. I'm not sure what those holders would do, I think for safety sakes I'd close those positions out given the past.