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wchurch1 447 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 13, 2015 5:42 PM Member since: Aug 28, 2005
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  • wchurch1 Nov 13, 2015 5:42 PM Flag

    Today, 95% of Illumina is owned by institutions. I wonder how much institutions owned in 2003 when the price hit 1 dollar?

  • Reply to

    ONVO worth more than current price

    by weiqinewbie Nov 12, 2015 10:33 AM wchurch1 Nov 12, 2015 2:37 PM Flag

    I bought into ONVO between recently when it hit 2.50 & also at 2.20 where I did the bulk of my buying. I'd never touched it before that. So how much is it really worth? Obviously I think it's worth more than what I paid. Given the current cost of discovering and bringing a new drug to market (currently around 2.9 billion, Forbes estimates it at closer to 5 billion), any business that can significantly reduce that cost will likely be very successful. My guess is a little ways down the road investors will look at the $13 dollar high and think of it as having been a bargain.

  • wchurch1 Nov 12, 2015 1:27 PM Flag

    currently drug companies are using single layer randomly spread kidney or liver cells in a dish to test of toxicity. It's already been proven that ONVO's liver product is vastly superior to that because it is actual living liver and kidney tissue with the same structure found in the organ tissue. There's really no question about this.

  • Reply to

    Will hit $2-3 range..may run out of cash

    by listen_jockers Nov 11, 2015 4:10 PM wchurch1 Nov 12, 2015 11:38 AM Flag

    At it's current burn rate DDD has enough cash to last 10 years. Their monthly cash burn is averaging 1.2 million. Divide that into their 150 million cash and you get 125 months. And yes this is before any cost cutting.

  • wchurch1 Nov 12, 2015 11:08 AM Flag

    When I said "real world" I was referring to after a drug has been approved by the FDA. Once a drug has been approved and is being prescribed for patients by doctors and has been out in the real world for several years, that is the time when any long term problems, if any exist, will show up. By definition there is no other way to determine if long term problems might exist except to use the drug long term. This is why drug companies track their products after FDA approval.

  • wchurch1 Nov 12, 2015 10:45 AM Flag

    You guys don't seem to understand how this works. A company would use ONVO's tissues early in drug development to see if there is any initial danger to humans. If nothing shows up on tissue testing the company will move on to human trials. If problems don't show up during these human trials they certainly aren't going to show up on ONVO's tissues either. If you could get tissues to live as long as humans do then you might be able to do long term testing but why would you want to when your product is already being used on a daily basis by patients in the real world. The real world is the best testing laboratory you can get. Although there is no legal obligation for a company to continue testing once a drug has been granted FDA approval, virtually all drug companies will continue to track the success rate of their drugs after approval. If problems begin to show up a responsible company will inform the FDA and pull the drug. That's how you prevent law suits and limit liability.

  • Reply to

    The true potential

    by wchurch1 Nov 12, 2015 2:17 AM wchurch1 Nov 12, 2015 10:13 AM Flag

    First we don't really know that ONVO is still under the radar. ONVO has decline to tell us at this time exactly how many contracts are pending. The reason for that is probably because the contracts are in fact cancellable. It's a completely new product based on a completely new technology. Undoubtedly customers would want to be able to cancel if it didn't work for them. But if we assume that ONVO is facing some resistance the thing that will cure that is results. The word gets around. If I am the CEO of the Big X Drug Company and I find out that my competitors over at Bigger Y Pharmaceuticals are saving money using this system the first thing I'm going to do is find out how I can get ONVO's product for my company. The second thing I'm going to do is find out who in my company knew about it and didn't inform me.

  • by wchurch1 Nov 12, 2015 2:17 AM Flag

    How does the CEO of any company make net profits grow? There is really only two ways. He can sell more of whatever it is the company is selling or he can save money by reducing expenses. Of the two reducing expenses is the most sure fire way to increase net profits because 100% of each penny saved goes straight to the bottom line. This is what Ben Franklin was talking about when he said “a penny saved is a penny earned”. As has already been explained drug companies spend millions doing animal testing and then spend millions more in initial human testing often just to find out that their new drug candidate has toxicity problems that were not revealed in earlier tests. The drug has to be scrapped wasting the millions already spent on development and testing. If ONVO has tests that can reveal these toxicity problems before human testing and possibly even before animal testing, then tens of millions can be saved on the testing of drugs that would only fail in the end. For a large drug firm this could add up to hundreds of millions of dollars each year. These savings would go directly to net profits, the bottom line. To the CEO of a major drug company this has more profit potential than almost any new drug his company can come up with.

  • wchurch1 Nov 11, 2015 11:16 PM Flag

    Also it is unlikely that ONVO's products will reveal any problems that arise with long term use since the tissues are only viable for about 40 days.

  • by wchurch1 Nov 11, 2015 11:55 AM Flag

    DDD is nearing long term support at $8.83. This support rests on the former long term highs of July 2007 and July 2005 both at $8.83. DDD first broke above $8.83 in Oct 2010. It ran up to $19.57 but, by Oct 2011 it had come back down and was testing $8.83 support. Support held and from there it was up until $97. Now we're back to long term support once again. If you've been waiting to put on a long term position this is where you begin to do it. This is also the vicinity from where I would expect some sort of bounce, probably in conjunction with the announcement of a new CEO. After a bounce I would expect a retest and a marginal new low.

  • wchurch1 Nov 10, 2015 12:26 PM Flag

    Weren't you one of the people who was crying about the acquisitions Avi made? Now you're crying because he didn't make more and spend all the cash. If the stock market were to tank which would you want to be, the guy with all his money already invested or the guy with a lot of cash on the sidelines? Saps bid DDD up to $97 and now dopes and fools are selling it down to levels just as ridiculous.The entire 3D industry is in a washout. It was inevitable and had to happen sooner or later. The thing that will determine the success or failure of most 3D companies during this time will be the ability to meet operating costs & debt obligations. 3D Systems has about 9 million in debt. This is nothing relative to their size. They have 157 million in cash and a burn rate averaging 1.2 million a month. All things remaining the same they could last over 10 years before depleting their cash. Given market conditions it's a good position to be in. What DDD needs now is a CEO with a very strong business background and capable of taking advantage of these market conditions. My guess is they will have no trouble finding one.

  • Reply to

    Worst stock I have ever bought

    by david230060 Nov 10, 2015 9:51 AM wchurch1 Nov 10, 2015 11:46 AM Flag

    I think if you are being honest with yourself then your statement should read, "Worst stock timing I have ever done". There isn't a lot wrong with the company itself that can't be easily fixed.

  • Reply to

    Opaque Conference Call

    by old_classics Nov 9, 2015 5:42 PM wchurch1 Nov 10, 2015 12:55 AM Flag

    I suppose you could argue that Keith is being opaque because his contracts are cancellable. But in business, especially bigger business, most contracts are cancellable. Certainly this would likely be the case for a new business with new technology such as ONVO has. I doubt though that this is the reason for the thin sort of guidance Keith has been giving.
    Giving any sort of guidance now days is the equivalent of walking a legal minefield. Investors have become so litigious that virtually any publicly traded company that offers guidance will at some point be sued on the basis that the guidance it gave was intended to mislead investors. Most law suits of this nature are frivolous and don’t get too far but they still cause damage. Consequently corporate attorneys have become hyper sensitive to this and counsel their clients accordingly. Conference calls like todays are scripted and questions asked by attending analysists have usually been reviewed in advance and answers prepared. The object is to keep the CEO and Investor Relations folks from saying anything that could come back to bite later. A small company like ONVO certainly doesn’t want the extra expense of a law suit but what would be even more damaging to a young company and its share price would be a claim of misrepresentation of facts. Perhaps Keith is being overly cautious but I don’t blame him since the company is in such an early stage of its development.

  • Reply to

    Revenue Booking

    by smb2112 Nov 9, 2015 4:36 PM wchurch1 Nov 9, 2015 4:43 PM Flag

    nice music. sort of makes you feel like buying an Audi.

  • Reply to

    Q2 ER

    by cashmoo2 Nov 9, 2015 3:05 PM wchurch1 Nov 9, 2015 3:15 PM Flag

    Do you feel sure they will have news to report on the kidney stuff today?

  • Reply to

    Q2 ER

    by cashmoo2 Nov 9, 2015 3:05 PM wchurch1 Nov 9, 2015 3:07 PM Flag

    To be released after the close.
    On a side note this boars seems rather dead today. Did everyone go down to the local bar to await the earnings report?

  • wchurch1 Nov 8, 2015 2:22 PM Flag

    "The previous generation of the Trent XWB engines was the XWB-84, named such because it offers 84,000 lbs of thrust at takeoff, the brand new Trent XWB-97 offers a staggering 97,000 lbf thrust with very little additional power required. Part of that increase in power is thanks to several 3D printed aerofoils within the engine’s front bearing housing."

  • wchurch1 Nov 8, 2015 2:19 PM Flag

    "Not only was this an important milestone for the XWB-97, but this test flight was also the first successful test flight of the the world’s largest 3D printed aeroplane engine structure."

  • wchurch1 Nov 7, 2015 12:16 AM Flag

    Are you talking about the product that can be seen on videos making an Eifel Tower & a sphere or something newer than that. If newer then what is it.

  • Reply to

    3rd time we tested $10

    by fatedecides21 Nov 6, 2015 10:56 AM wchurch1 Nov 6, 2015 11:37 AM Flag

    Usually when a company fires a CEO the board already has a new one selected or at least a short list of candidates. The decision to dump AVI was probably made at least 3 months ago. I don't think you will have to wait too long.