This has more to do with the general market than anything happening with oxbt itself. I believe this is a market correction and not the start of a longer term bear market. There's been way too much talk of crashes and long term bears for it to happen, but that's my opinion. The bio tech index $NBI has taken a real beating down about 23% from it's high. Today it touched 2174 which, as I see it, is the first area where it might find support. In the mean time it's important to remember that nothing has changed the outlook for oxbt. They have already raised the funds they will need. It's not as if they will have to contend with doing that in the middle of a bear market should that be the case. OXBTs long term future rests with the results of the trials of it's two lead drugs not with the direction of the stock market. For now lets see if $NBI can hold the level at 2174.
OXBT barely traded 200K shares today. Given the beating the general market was taking and the biotech in particular there didn't seem to be a big rush for the OXBT exit one might expect. Short interest reported as of 3/31/14 rose to 1.8 million shares up from 1.2 million. If there is any sort of bullish surprise the resulting move should be dramatic.
We are in a sort of transition period where interest in OXBT is shifting from that of short term traders to long term investors. Initially the price action was dominated by short term traders. That produced the volatility so many of us love. Now at least 50% of all oxbt shares are in the hands of long term investors and that percentage is probably growing. Short term trading provided the "fuel" for the dramatic rise but it also was responsible for the dramatic declines. The next leg up will be fueled by a rotation of shares between longer term investors rather than short term traders. It should have greater endurance than anything we have seen so far.
The last hour of the trading day seems to be becoming something to watch. The old saying is the first hour belongs to the amateurs and the last belongs to the pros. More than half of yesterday's total volume occurred in the last hour of trade. Also the last hour was the time period when the price ran up so dramatically.
OXBT said they would not release any info on the phase IIb trials until the third and final cohort was complete. If they remain true to their word that would mean that any news release is still some time away. We need to keep in mind that the phase IIb portion of the trials is being conducted on people with traumatic brain injury and while it is primarily a dose escalation study it will also give a good idea of the effectiveness of Oxycyte for treating TBI. While you and I are not yet privileged to that information what do you want to bet the folks who bought $55 million worth of OXBT shares got a sneak peak at the available results?
Everybody wants a huge winner. They want to buy something for 2 bucks and then ride it to $100. Sounds easy. Just a matter of being in the right place at the right time, right? Of course not. You need the conviction to buy and then remain long because the market will do everything it can to convince you that you are wrong.
Those that picked up 5% or more of the total outstanding shares in the recent stock offering are now starting to report. One buyer of 2 million shares is Great Point Partners LLC. It's managing partner is Dr. Jeffrey R. Jay MD. You can read up on him at zoominfo. Really lends some confidence to what OXBT is doing.
There was an SC 13g statement of ownership which was reported near the close at about the same time little plunge in price occurred. It appears an LLC bought 1.5 million shares. That's the only news I find. Perhaps some people thought this was bad news?
I wouldn't be surprised if it was higher than $10 by then. We should begin getting news about upcoming trials within a month or less. As the trials begin speculation will also. An acceleration of the Oxycyte trials would also have a positive impact on the share price. I have been waiting for a relentless advance to begin. It's taking longer than usual but I'm still expecting it. The investment banks and funds that bought those 10 million shares are now in our corner also. They want the price to rise more than we do and unlike us they have the power to drum up interest in the shares. These guys usually don't get involved in this manner unless they feel they can make ungodly profits.
In trading a sure fire way of losing money is to be overly worried about losing money. Since you have no time frame in mind you are by default a long term investor. That being the case you need to think like a long term investor. Don't let short term price action determine long term trades. It doesn't matter what the bio-techs do. OXBT must proceed with trials as soon as possible. They can't just sit on their cash and there is no need for them to. My guess is they will not only begin the levosimendan trials but, will also accelerate the Oxycyte trials. Economically this would make the most sense. Oxycyte should be about two thirds of the way through phase IIb trials. If the US is included in the third cohort of those trials, phase IIb could be completed quickly. With pahse IIb complete Oxycyte should be ready for the efficacy portion of clinical trials relatively soon. I think they will also apply for an accelerated status for Oxycyte trials.
Here's a posting from another site that demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of the dilution. The poster goes by the handle Blimps and here is what he had to say. "The size of the pie is the same. It has now been cut into many smaller pieces. Each slice is worth 36% less than the way the pie was cut previously. Basic economics can be delayed by smoke and mirrors but in the end the efficiency of economics wins out."
The size of the pie is NOT the same. Blimps doesn't seem to understand that company now has $55 million in new cash that it did not have before. That $55 mil is now an asset of the company. So while the size of the shares outstanding has almost doubled the size of the pie with the added $55 mil has almost doubled too. So basically a share of stock is worth about the same as it was prior to the dilution. Before the dilution OXBT was a company with some potentially great products but without the means to develop any of them. Now with the $55 million added to cash reserves becomes a company with some potentially great products and the means to bring some of them to market. You tell me which company has greater value?
A test of $5.60 was in the cards. A test of the underwriter discount at $5.15 may happen. At times like this it helps to remember there is a reason the underwriter and those it sold shares to are willing to get involved.
I just want to remind people once again that the US military can start using Oxycyte before it is FDA approved. If we entered into another war where a high percentage of injuries involve brain trauma, like Iraq did, there is a good chance we would see Oxycyte used on the battle field before being FDA approved. This revelation always seems to cause people to gasp but when the military needs a method of treatment it doesn't have time to wait for the FDA process. The military makes it's own determination if a drug is safe (enough) and effective. Use of experimental drugs is fairly common in the military during times of war or military emergency.
When the company was standing still like it was 3 or 4 years ago I worried about dilution and at the time it was a problem. If the company is advancing and adding to share value at a faster pace than dilution is diminishing it then there is no problem. Many of you have yet to figure out that some very powerful fundamental changes that have taken place.
stevens, how did you get a link to post? Each time I've tried on this site my post has been rejected.