Thanks for the heads up. It would be nice if the article was posted to Yahoo news under the two ticker symbols, but maybe this will happen in a few days after his followers get first read.
If company gets a positive reimbursement rate announcement, if will blow past $25 in relatively short order, maybe even in a day, as the large short position will be covering coupled with more institutional buying for the expected revenue growth, which I believe will ramp up fairly quickly. GL
Sentiment: Strong Buy
If they continue to hit 3,000 barrel/day wells and make further key acquisitions, you never know, especially with the CF they will likely be generating. GL
Good question. PTA.V has a good management team that continues to build a great little company. They have met their goals in the past and have traditionally funded their drilling program from CF, I.e. not increased debt or continual share offerings. Their current production goal is up to 30,000 BOPD in about 2 years. This is a long-term hold for me, and I won't attempt to trade it as I don't want to get caught on the outside looking in. At some point, larger companies will be looking to buy this company, and some sales, if I remember right, have been well over $100K per BOPD depending on the properties. I don't want that to occur until they at least triple their production. Also, there are a boat load of warrants that expire in Q4. They also have a share buyback authorization for 10% of shares, that can be renewed annually, and if they use it, could shrink the share count considerably over time. Anyway, if they meet their production goal in a couple of years, over $3/share is not out of the question. Obviously, this could come sooner or later depending on market perception, but the company gets stronger each quarter. Just my take and GL.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Looks like they are getting more aggressive with their drilling program with 14 new wells planned in the next six months, and the company is to provide further guidance shortly. Sit back and watch the daily production grow!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Will there not be millions of potential customers not on government reimbursement rates for this product (i.e. private insurance holders for those in their 40's, 50's and early 60's)? All I discussed this with said it would be no contest in choosing this test over the misery of the current test. I also don't see the $500-600 price tag every few years for numerous customers as being an issue at all. Then they are looking for approval in Europe. Looks like this stock has a lot of potential. Anyone have an estimate or comparison to another common screening test for this age range as to what the % private pay vs. government reimbursement might be?
Anything is possible if the market slide continues, but because this stock is so value priced, we are probably looking at a Q3 distribution on the current price of around a 10% annualized yield, despite the reduced throughput. That and we haven't seen a move up yet into the distribution, so it is doubtful you will see the 23's, and is possible this stock will settle in the 25-26 range after a run into the distribution.
N, they primarily use WTI and a discounted feedstock, WCS (heavy Canadian). The WCS discount to WTI average for Q2 was reported in the CVRR earnings released at $19.22/barrel, and has more recently been trading at a discount to WTI of over $20/barrel to WTI. At times, they also use WTS (medium), which also trades at a discount to WTI, but didn't use WTS this last quarter.
Ok. Thanks. BTW, CVRR's Q2 produced 49% gasoline and 51% diesel and other distillates, or 2-1-1. They primarily use WTI and WCS, and at times WTS. GL to you.
It may work for you, but when you post, it confuses people. Can I assume that GOM is Gulf of Mexico, and I don't know why you are talking about East and West Coast Brent imports and WTI index price. In their quarterly reports, CVRR uses the NYMEX (NY Harbor) 2-1-1 based on WTI to match their production. Their Q2 average was reflected in their Q2 earnings release at $22.05.
The 2/1/1 NY Harbor crack spread was over $21.50/barrel earlier this evening. WCS is still trading at over a $21/barrel discount to WTI. WTI was down hard today and margins widened. I agree that this is a decent value with a very high yield, which should be fairly defensive if we see continuation of this general market sell off. So, I think we will be alright here even with the reduced throughput. Hopefully, repairs will go well and they will report a lesser impact than first thought down the road. GL longs.
CVRR reported a similar Q today as compared to Q1 with a distribution of 96 cents vs. 98 cents, respectively. This is despite not using any WTS discounted feedstock in Q2 production. NTI should be in line for about 80 cents based on this confirmation.
Also, today was the last day trading the August gasoline and diesel contracts. A look at the new contract prices this evening reflects the NY Harbor 3/2/1 crack spread is $20.97, and the NY Harbor 2/1/1 is $21.65. GL
I am not sure how you calculate your crack spread, but mid-day, the NY Harbor 2/1/1 crack spread is $21.17, and has widened today. As far as the US approving exports, I don't see this happening as it is political suicide. Well over 90% of the voting public would scoff when any politician tried to argue their case to allow US crude to be exported and they should. The current situation caps WTI against Brent and insulates us all from international events to some degree. It US crude export is approved, the traders will run it up on every international incident and it will be a never ending upward trend, and then comes stagflation, a nasty situation.
Crude throughput guidance for Q2 was 190,000 to 200,000 BPD. They had crude throughput of 212,047. As usual, under-promise and over-deliver. They also added 2.9 million in 2015 and 2016 forward crack spread hedges ranging from $29 to $30 barrel. I like it.
I see they're posting the same old dribble again. For NTI and CVRR, they lowered their ratings to sell on 4/9/14 and 3/6/14, respectively. If you followed their advice and sold, you missed total returns of 15% in 60 days and over 30% in 3-4 months, respectively. In April, they also posted one of these reports on BIOF. They were spitting out the usual on operating margins, etc., even though BIOF had lost their ethanol plants to the lender 5 months earlier. So, this appears to be nothing more than a computer generated report based on old data. Seriously, do they even read up on the company before releasing a article? No credibility and annoying with their frequent posts. Just my take.
Well, I see the junk analysis motley fool video posted last night to news has already been removed. Someone must have got in his ear that you can't just watch the Brent/WTI spread to predict earnings.
For NTI, the company uses the 3-2-1 crack spread for Padd II, Group 3. So essentially the NY Harbor crack spread plus the benefit from the use of discounted feedstock, and then less the negatives for the Padd II, Group III gas and ULSD prices. During Q2, the Padd II, Group 3 discount had moderated from Q1, while it appeared ULSD had remained relatively similar.
It should also be noted that NTI changes the feedstock mix seasonally via increasing WCS in winter to meet the higher diesel demand. For Q4, the company mix was 24% WCS, 21% synthetic, and 55% Bakken. It should also be noted that Q1 CC noted that RIN expense was elevated as they used some RINs purchased in Q4 at a higher price than the Q1 market, and then stated 85% of the RIN compliance volume going forward would be met by their own blending. For what I calculate, this will save the company about $2.5MM/qtr for the rest of 2014 assuming an average RIN price of 50 cents. All-in-all, I am expecting a pretty good quarter. We will know the distribution shortly. GL