I am not sure how you calculate your crack spread, but mid-day, the NY Harbor 2/1/1 crack spread is $21.17, and has widened today. As far as the US approving exports, I don't see this happening as it is political suicide. Well over 90% of the voting public would scoff when any politician tried to argue their case to allow US crude to be exported and they should. The current situation caps WTI against Brent and insulates us all from international events to some degree. It US crude export is approved, the traders will run it up on every international incident and it will be a never ending upward trend, and then comes stagflation, a nasty situation.
Crude throughput guidance for Q2 was 190,000 to 200,000 BPD. They had crude throughput of 212,047. As usual, under-promise and over-deliver. They also added 2.9 million in 2015 and 2016 forward crack spread hedges ranging from $29 to $30 barrel. I like it.
I see they're posting the same old dribble again. For NTI and CVRR, they lowered their ratings to sell on 4/9/14 and 3/6/14, respectively. If you followed their advice and sold, you missed total returns of 15% in 60 days and over 30% in 3-4 months, respectively. In April, they also posted one of these reports on BIOF. They were spitting out the usual on operating margins, etc., even though BIOF had lost their ethanol plants to the lender 5 months earlier. So, this appears to be nothing more than a computer generated report based on old data. Seriously, do they even read up on the company before releasing a article? No credibility and annoying with their frequent posts. Just my take.
Well, I see the junk analysis motley fool video posted last night to news has already been removed. Someone must have got in his ear that you can't just watch the Brent/WTI spread to predict earnings.
For NTI, the company uses the 3-2-1 crack spread for Padd II, Group 3. So essentially the NY Harbor crack spread plus the benefit from the use of discounted feedstock, and then less the negatives for the Padd II, Group III gas and ULSD prices. During Q2, the Padd II, Group 3 discount had moderated from Q1, while it appeared ULSD had remained relatively similar.
It should also be noted that NTI changes the feedstock mix seasonally via increasing WCS in winter to meet the higher diesel demand. For Q4, the company mix was 24% WCS, 21% synthetic, and 55% Bakken. It should also be noted that Q1 CC noted that RIN expense was elevated as they used some RINs purchased in Q4 at a higher price than the Q1 market, and then stated 85% of the RIN compliance volume going forward would be met by their own blending. For what I calculate, this will save the company about $2.5MM/qtr for the rest of 2014 assuming an average RIN price of 50 cents. All-in-all, I am expecting a pretty good quarter. We will know the distribution shortly. GL
Agree Osierjim. Q2 should look similar to Q1, and the current 3-2-1 NY Harbor Crack Spread at mid-day is $19.25. This company also has the advantage of location providing discounts for all their crude feedstock. According to the guidance, company expected to roughly use 62% Bakken Crude, 23% Canadian Sweet Synthetic, and 15% WCS. I didn't look today, but the recent WCS discount to WTI was over $23/barrel, and the Synthethic discount was about $2.50. I had trouble finding the current Bakken discount, but earlier in the quarter, it was running a little over $3/barrel. These discounts are a huge benefit to this company's cost structure, and I believe The Street, Zach's and Motley Fool analysis misses this and as a result, they have been overly bearish to say the least. GL Longs.
I like your $1 call for CVRR, and I am guessing about 80 cents for NTI. Also, good to see gas up nicely at mid-day with WTI remaining flat to a little down. Will know in a few days. GL
Nrp, with so many voices out there urging caution, I find it somewhat bullish as stocks need a wall of worry to climb (I.e. there is still money on the sidelines that can come back in), and general market conditions remain positive for equities. With that said, CVRR also provides a very defensive yield, and a near term and likely positive catalyst in what should be another solid distribution. Therefore, the stock should continue to trend higher as we move towards the report date. Who knows, maybe we will even bump up through the 50-day moving average this week. GL
Yes, it is a different spread than CVRR, but nonetheless shows improvement for CVX in Q2 over Q1 on an apples to apples basis. This should provide some indication that Q2 refining margins over Q1 for the industry were at least as good if not better. GL
For the 2 mos. through May, Chevron reported their 5-3-2 crack spread for the West Coast improved $9.27 to $27.00, and their Gulf Coast region improved $2.70 to $26.01 compared to their Q1-2014 spreads.
Last night, Chevron reported Q2 interim guidance reflecting higher US refining margins in Q2 over Q1. Their US refining operations were detailed as West and Gulf Coast operations, both of which showed nice improvement. This is the first confirmation that Q2 refining operations on the whole should be pretty good. GL
Big, I think the distribution will be similar to last quarter and with back to back good distributions will bounce this stock back up to where it was a couple of weeks ago and possibly to a higher trading range x-date while earning a high yield. I also like owning some MLP's for tax purposes as a part of a diversified portfolio.
Thanks J. I have had a long-time passion for analyzing companies and finding value in the market. I attempt to understand what I am investing in and adapt with each passing quarter. While there is always a certain degree of risk, the risk/reward looked good here offering what should be a defensive yield while providing upside potential. GL to you.
Nice start the past couple of days, and its looks like you got a good price. I am thinking the units will trend higher for a while now and at least recover what was lost following the secondary announcement in a relatively short time. Thereafter, if we get another solid back-to-back distribution, I would expect a modestly higher trading range ex-distribution than the quarter prior, all market conditions being similar. GL
Mr. Dorsey wrote an informative article today stating the quarter lows on June 27 and June 30 represented a great buy in price, and estimated the upcoming distribution near $1 per unit. He also rate CVRR a buy. Nice. GL longs.
Not sure what you are looking at, and well, not sure I care as I have better things to do. My analysis is intended to get fairly close to the upcoming distribution, which I believe will be a couple of cents north of $1. Of course, everyone should do their own due diligence, and we will see soon enough. Enjoy your summer.
Over time I have learned that the WTI/Brent spread is not directly correlated to, and is thus, an unreliable indicator or refining margins. This is a common misconception perpetuated by many including the Motley Fool article under CVRR news dated 6/15/14. Rather, the best correlation for CVRR's distributable CF is cited by management in their quarterly reports and is based on the NYMEX 2:1:1 crack spread that must then be adjusted, + or -, by several, specific to company, margin contributors/detractors. After that, one must then subtract the interest and maintenance reserve allocations.
As far as hedging, the company likes to maintain about 30% of the throughput per quarter hedged. They replace those that roll through the current quarter P&L when it is advantageous. If the margins they desire aren't there, they can be patient as most of the hedging for the next two quarters at any given time are already in place. Company reports the new and upcoming remaining positions with earnings each quarter. At the end of Q1, they were almost fully hedged for Q2, Q3, and Q4 2014. Also, in Q1, they added some 825,000 Barrels for Q2 2015 increasing the position to 975,000, and for that quarter, the average margin lock was reported at $30.20. Gas and diesel prices have been pretty good in Q2 so I would expect some added hedging positions reported with the Q2 earnings.
I see you are short CVI. I don't mind the question as I do weigh the short opinions as I never know when I might learn something.