Stock drops 8% on normal volume? More like lack of buying than an outright sell-off, IMO. Looking for quick rebound back to $5.25 area. Gasoline here just popped up 25-cents to $3.00.
Today's drop is sector-wide. One stock that I follow (and used to own) is Stone Energy (SGY), now hitting their 5-yr low. I think a lot of this is automated trading bots responding in knee-jerk unison to a drop in oil prices. The smaller producers (especially those tied to fracking) probably carry a higher risk premium and take a bigger percentage haircut whenever oil turns downward. The chart patterns are nearly identical across the entire energy complex.
50% to 75% of daily market activity is algorithm-driven high-frequency trading. Chart reading & technical analysis is virtually useless in this kind of environment, it's hard to determine whether or not a big move up or down is driven by actual institutional interest in a company or sector or just some trading bot looking for a few milliseconds of profit-taking.
My guess is it's the Saudi's who are shorting these stocks. The extra profits helps offset what they're losing by selling their oil below $90. But remember, 25% short only seems bad due to the relatively low float associated with many of these smaller producers. I'm not so sure it's all that big of a deal. If CVX or BP were shorted this much, now THAT would be a big deal.
Guessing shorties are betting most of these smaller players will either go under or get bought out at bargain-basement prices by larger companies.
25% of float held short (May-29)?
Yikes! Wasn't paying attention to this metric like I should have. I see a number of the smaller producers out there with relatively small floats also have double-digit short positions hanging on them. Is this just because the float is so small where even modest shorting activity seems magnified, or does someone know something?
Makes me very uncomfortable. I'm willing to hold until prices rebound a bit, but the shorts have really piled on this stock, that can't be a good sign. Maybe these are just short-term traders jumping in & out?
The price is going nowhere until there's some covering action. Guessing most went short on the last run-up & probably covering @ $4.25 - $4.50 area. Thoughts?
OBTW: another small energy E & P I follow (Stone Energy -- SGY) also has a high short position at 18%.
Good article in today's Oilprice blog. "Forget the Noise: Oil Prices Won’t Crash Again", by Dan Doyle. Yahoo doesn't permit embedded links on message boards.
This is a cool website. IMO, lots of interesting articles written by industry insiders. Some key points from the article:
"Four consecutive weeks of inventory draws, each one larger than the last is irrefutable proof that a 60% decline in the rig count means something."
" ... Chinese economy at 7% growth in 2015 is a bigger consumer of oil than it was at 10% in 2010. Note too, that Asian demand is increasing and Europe is starting to look like it has put in a bottom."
"Look for WTI to make a move towards and maybe into the $70’s as clarity strikes the market."
Interesting article in today's (31-MAY) The Telegraph. Can't post link here, search for title, "Opec under siege as Isil threatens world's oil lifeline"
ISIL just torched a major Iraqi refinery, Saudis getting nervous & increasing security at their facilities. Goldman Sachs & other investment houses not pricing fear factor into oil prices, why not? Are they oblivious to what's going on in the ME or do they know something we don't? I don't get the disconnect? Saudis still committed to keeping prices low, maybe as a way to slow down oil profits flowing to Iran / ISIL. The rest of OPEC wants -- and needs -- $100 oil.
With respect to U.S. fracking production, all the Saudis are doing is forcing consolidation in the industry; small operators lacking cash get bought out by the bigger players who have the financial resources to weather the storm. As the small operations fold, their leases, active wells, equipment all go on the market at deep discount; smart players with deep pockets are scarfing up lots of good equipment for 25-cents on-the-dollar or less. This is capitalism at work.
On top of consolidation you have rapid advances in fracking technology that are driving down costs; wells that needed $80 oil to survive can now do it at $65. All the Saudis are doing is forcing U.S. fracking operators to become more efficient and cost effective. This would have eventually happened anyway, but now there's pricing pressure to help push innovation along at even a faster pace. We should thank the Saudis for all the cheap gasoline, industry consolidation, process improvements and new technologies brought on by their -- "punishment" -- LOL!!
OBTW: According to the American Petroleum Institute, the state of Texas produces more natural gas than all of Saudi Arabia! Yee-e-e-ee hahhh! Who's the big dog now? Just saw that a few days ago, will try to locate specific article where that appeared.
Re. "His / her post was a copy and paste job."
Apologies! Yes, I should've stated the source of the info. Don't remember now but it was one of those defense-oriented publications. This particular one addressed global military capability by country. Not a cut & paste, just paraphrased. I just wanted to show that SA will not be a push-over should ISIS decide on a conventional military assault; all they can do is conduct isolate terrorist attacks. Iran currently is in no position to provide the needed air power, heavy artillery and heavy armor to breech Saudi defenses, IMO.
Iraq HAD the best army U.S. tax dollars could buy. We trained them and selected qualified officers & NCO's to lead. All that ended virtually the day U.S. forces left the country. Experienced & trained officers were quickly replaced with political cronies, soldiers weren't paid, many had to moonlight on second jobs just to support their families. A large portion of the military was AWOL when ISIS attacked. The few soldiers still on duty lacked leadership as they saw their officers turn tail. A few tried to fight but couldn't do much without support.
Whether or not the Saudis will fight is less of a concern then whether or not Obama will stab them in the back like he did with Israel, Egypt and the U.K. -- a lot of the Saudi's equipment and spare parts comes from the U.S. It would be a shame if there were some unfortunate "delays" in the next procurement cycle -- a lot of paperwork gets lost in the Pentagon, it's a really big place.
The Saudis have the largest and most effective defense force in the Middle East aside from Israel and have a deep broad-based network of of intelligence assets covering the entire region. Although Obama has thrown them under the bus in favor of Iran, the Saudis maintain strong relations with the UK, Europe and pretty much the rest of the world..
SA was the largest global importer of defense equipment in 2014, an increase of 52% over 2013. U.S. defense contractors sold nearly $9B of equipment to SA & the UAE; they have 250,000 active & reserve military personnel with up to 14 million fit for military service if needed.
SA defense forces consist of some 1,200 tanks , 5,300 armored fighting vehicles, 524 self-propelled guns, 432 pieces of towed-artillary and 322 multiple-launch rocket systems, 155 fighter planes, 236 fixed-wing attack planes, 187 transport aircraft and 182 helicopters including 18 attack helicopters -- a force more than adequate to take on any major ISIS assault. All this, plus new procurements, is supported by a $56B per year defense budget.
The only way SA could get into trouble is if Iran launched some sort of major missile campaign; they have little in the way of an effective air force as its planes are quite old plus no long-range bombing capability, Saudi combat aircraft are newer and technologically superior to anything Iran current has in inventory -- UNLESS the Chinese and / or Russians decide to get into the game by supplying state-of-the-art equipment. But anyRussian / Chinese "help" will come with a nasty price tag the Iranians may not be willing to pay.
SUMMARY: SA has the equipment and, so far, the will to use it against an external threat; all ISIS can do is strap a Jihadi vest to some poor 12-yr old "martyr" and send him into a busy marketplace.
On 15-APR WTI was @ $54.78 & TPLM closed @ $6.18. Today WTI closed @ $59.43 but TPLM @ only $5.46. Theoretically, TPLM is 72-cents below where it should be, what gives? If things start to go seriously haywire in the ME, I can't see how the Saudis can keep the lid on prices much longer. Everyone keeps talking about the lack of "fear factor" being built into the price structure, well I certainly see plenty of reasons to start fearing now. TPLM should be selling north of $6 right now.
Ramadi has fallen and that about wraps it up for Anbar province. We lost 1335 soldiers there with an additional 8,205 wounded. Obama gave it all back to ISIS. Anyone notice how this stuff is being toned-down by the U.S. Media? Oh, and we just found out that the White House knew about a planned Al Qaeda attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi TEN DAYS before it happened.
What part of "low volume" and "bid / ask range" don't you understand?
This company is BROKE! Check their latest financials, they're burning cash when they should be building sales and brand recognition. They can't advertise because the don't have an advertising budget. These "agreements" don't mean squat. PLSB is hardly generating any sales from the 20,000 outlets they already have -- I did the math on this last year. Check the case count vs. the number of stores. Stay away from this crap, learn how to play blackjack, the odds of winning are way better than this thing.
Hey, Baldy is back! The dilution you were talking about back then had to do with the existing warrants, this is a whole new finance deal. Either way its a moot point -- they're out of money. Yates keeps yammering on about Mexico but he can't afford to do one iota of advertising here in the U.S. They've had two years to get this product off the ground and it ain't sellin'! There's no brand presence. Look at their stupid coconut water campaign; do you realize how many ESTABLISHED brands are already out their competing for shelve space? I counted eight about six months ago.
I gave PLSB some time to stumble and run but there was no follow-thru on sales from 2013 into 2014, that killed it for me. Bailed out back when they were still trading around 42-cents. It was just a gamble but that's the LAST time I ever throw money at this junk -- could've done better at the blackjack tables. Should have paid closer attention to that reverse merger with Darlington mines, big red flag waving in my face, kinda ignored it. Stocks that go public using this method are always scams. Oh well, at least the cap loss proved useful at tax time.
Another red flag was Gates suspect background; I didn't realize just how dodgy this guy was until after getting into the stock. Was really looking for another pump & dump move but it never happened. Even the pumpers abandoned this POS. All the other cheerleaders have dumped & left the board. A few of them (like your sweetheart Jane) still post on Investor's Hub
Wow, can't you just feel the electricity crackling in the air over latest announcement about finding a big distributor in Mexico? Let's see -- yup -- a whopping 18,000 shares traded today. The train is leaving the station, folks -- ALL ABOARD! CHUGGA-chugga-chugga, CHUGGA-chugga-chugga --- woo-hoooooo!
Distribution deals do not automatically imply sales.
Jane, Jane, Jane, where ar-r-r-r-r-r-e yooooooo??? You've been conspicuously absent of late. Don't tell me you've sold out and left us? Am I the only one posting on this board? Don't force me to start responding to my own messages, things could get really nasty as I suffer from multiple-personality disorder.
First lesson on spamming a stock: use the correct symbol! It's MINE, not $MINE. Not that it makes any difference, even a non-existant company makes more money than this one, LOL,LOL!!!!!!! This is what PLSB is going to look like by the end of the year.
This "stock" has no listed market cap, and nearly a FOUR BILLION share float. You'd get a better payout from a slot machine at your local indian casino. Go back to spammer school and take notes so you won't forget.
Thanks for writing, though. Hardly anyone posts here anymore, even Jane has given up trying to pump poor poor PDS. Hey guys, let's have a contest to see who comes up with the best new beverage ideas to submit to Pulse, you know, to help boost sales! I'll get the ball rolling with some of my favorites:
Fruit & dairy drinks:
Yellow Snow Lemonade
Road Kill Root Beer
Fur Ball Berry
Mystery Milk (currently not FDA approved)
Tossed Cookies Chocolate Surprise
Curdled Milk Limeade Blaster
Unique adult functional drinks:
Standin' Tall (special ED formulation just for men)
Not-Tonight-Sailor-That-Ship-Has-Sailed (special formulation for women)
Are-You-Finished-Yet? Frozen Coffee Blend (for men or women, but mostly women).
Come on gang, throw some ideas out there, lets all get behind Pulse Bev and push!
Curious as to what's so magical about $5.00? PDS hit the $5 mark four times over the past month, did you add to your position on any of those occasions? Traded in the $5.00 - $5.25 area just this past Monday, did you buy then?
I tell everybody on this board exactly what I do. No secrets! PLSB is low volume, nobody follows, easy to manipulate, a kid could do it. Getting out of stock is the hard part, gotta work with lots of small trades so as not to leave big footprints like elephant.
Dont need inside info, there ISN'T any, lol, lol!! If nothing further develops with Walmart thing expect slow drop to single digits, that's too low even for even for me. No room to make profitable trades, at least not the way I like to do it. This thing could be played out, don't wanna hang around to find out, made my money, may be time to move on.
People like you insult people like me but then follow my trading advice. ha ha I don't care! There are two kinds of people in this world, those who ride the elephants and those who clean up after the parade has past them by. Going out with my lady fried tonight, spend lots of money, make big boomba boomba with my fantastic lady who never quits. What are you doing? Staying home with big box of kleenex ? ha ha!!!!
I put all my money into Ultimate Stock Alerts and now I'm -------
LIVING IN A VAN DOWN BY THE RIVER !!!
Ever wonder what happened to all those cute little baby ducks your kids used to feed from the riverbanks? Yup, that was me, I was desperate and starving. But on good days I might catch a few carp, maybe even a stray dog floating by.. Frogs are pretty good too but the little beasties are slippery and won't set still while you chop off their little legs.
Don't let this happen to you. Buy penny-stocks from Ultimate Stock Alerts and you'll end up ---
LIVING IN A VAN DOWN BY THE RIVER !!!
One bankrupt dead brand selling another dead brand about to go bankrupt. There are only 1,000 K-mart stores left in the entire country, about 200 of them were closed just in the past year alone. Note the HUGE (2000 shrs) surge in volume today after the announcement! Well, at least we know somebody is in the office at PLSB headquarters, they managed to issue some news.
I followed your advice and now I live in a van down by the river!
PART II: Some more good-reads for the weekend.
Also from Oilprice website: archive article (13-JAN-2015) by Dan Steffens, "The Age Of Cheap Oil Is Over". A few of his key comments:
"However, the size and speed of the drop doesn’t seem justified when there is still plenty of room to store the short-term oversupply."
"There is some truth to the U.S. rapidly increasing oil production eating into Saudi Arabia’s market share, but to say we have some sort of global supply glut that cannot be absorbed by this market is nonsense."
"The last time we had a drop in the oil price this large was in mid-2008 ... The speed of the drop was partly because of the huge margin calls the non-commercial traders received. They were forced to cover their long positions when there were no buyers. The recent drop in oil prices has also been exaggerated by margin calls."
Check out 15-JAN-2015 article posted by Steve Brown on OilPrice website. Very technical, long read & some nice charts. Author has solid background in the industry, 30-yrs. experience. Search on "Be Prepared For An Oil Price Spike", article should pop up at the top of the list.
In the same issue, be sure to read article by Ron Patterson concerning the "EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook 2015 and 2016", here are a few quotes:
"The EIA is saying that US C+C will peak at 9.47 mb/d in May 2015, drop 330,000 barrels per day by September 2015 then recover, apparently because the price of oil will recover. Or perhaps they have another reason. They do not have US production surpassing May 2015 until July of 2016."
"The EIA has US total liquids hitting a plateau in July 2015 then heading up again in April 2016 and increasing by 1 million barrels per day during the remainder of the year."
"The EIA has Non-OPEC total liquids peaking in October 2015 then dropping by over one million barrels per day by February 2015 before heading up and making new highs in August and October. Then they have the pattern repeating again, bottoming out in January 2016 and increasing by 2.3 mb/d by October."