Have that report in front of me right now. The information you're quoting is from the Pro Forma Forward Looking data listed on on page 27. Hey sparky, they DO tell you, "YOU SHOULD NOT PLACE UNDUE RELIANCE ON THESE FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS"
Maybe you missed this part: "Such statements are based on management’s current expectations and are subject to a number of factors and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements."
How can ANY start-up company reasonably predict sales of a new product three years into the future? PLSB just started their first production runs in 2011! Pro Forma numbers are NEVER to be taken seriously, especially when dealing with a new food / drink product. You're imply management lied when in fact these are just best-guesses based on numerous assumptions.
There WAS one major flaw in their thinking with respect to Cabana sales (as stated by the writer on page 6): "More important: lemonade is not just for summer time anymore—the natural low calorie version has become a year round beverage." Actually, lemonade doesn't sell well in the winter, especially last winter, LOL. Seasonality really crimps their sales for about 6-months out of every year.
Another reason for the blue-sky estimates, IMO, was most likely an unrealistically high expectation for Asian sales and the delayed release of their functional drinks due to relabeling & reformulation. The whole Asia-thing was very premature and has yet to pan out, from what I can tell.
This is STILL an early-stage growth company but they've done an EXCELLENT job at growing their distribution network. Now that they've expanded their product line beyond just the seasonal lemonades, sales should begin to pick up. Sadly, we're still waiting on the new rollout for the functional drinks. Those sales probably won't hit in a meaningful way until next year.
Speaking of "stupid" try reading your own posts sometime. "It would hard to be that stupid ... " ?? Keep up the good work on those night courses -- you'll earn that GED someday.
Sheesh, calm down! Excu-u-u-u-u-use me for living and breathing !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I said I was just STARTING my DD on this company and simply brought up what I thought was a simple observation. You provided me some stuff to follow-up on -- thank you. That's what I was looking for, no need to be rude.
The first thing I look at are basic financial stats, haven't had a chance to look at much else today -- especially not the 10Q's or all the news articles. Figured someone on this board probably had a simple explanation. Their mrq cash position struck me as tad low for this type of business but there could be any number of perfectly-valid reasons as to why. I was looking for a figure in the +$1M area at the very least. Running an exploration & production operation is costly and burns up cash in a hurry -- always lots of bills to pay. I found a few other E & P companies about the same size as AXAS (KOG, GST, WRES) and all three had better cash positions ($16M, $27M and $2M respectively). THAT'S what prompted me to ask the question in the first place.
Just starting some basic DD on this company, have it on my radar. Looking for the next Stone Energy (SGY) -- under $10 in 2009 to $45 this year -- more than doubled just this past year -- solid company.
Per Yahoo stats, I'm seeing AXAS has just $349K of on-hand cash and a current ratio of only 0.43, that has me a little concerned. A current ratio closer to 1.00 indicates company has plenty of $$ to pay bills. Long term debt seems reasonable relative to operating cash flow. ROE & margins are great!
Price / Sales & Price Book ratios seem awful high compared with other small-cap companies in the G & O exploration group (WRES, GST, SGY, KOG). SGY ($3B enterprise value) is quite a bit larger than AXAS ($623M) & they're more into off-shore work but still considered a small company. I'm guessing the higher P/S & P/B ratios are saying that investors are willing to pay a premium for future growth.
Any thoughts on the cash issue?
Stuff you're NOT going to see or hear on ABC, CBS or NBC news tonight. I'm not sensing a lot of feel-good vibes coming out of Iraq. THIS is the fundamental stuff driving tomorrows PM trading -- not silly charts.
From News Max:
ISIL now controls most of a “central swath” of Iraq, is “solidifying gains” and poses “a legitimate threat to Baghdad,” Rear Admiral John Kirby, the Defense Department spokesman, told reporters in a briefing at the Pentagon.
From DefenseOne (cool site oriented towards the analysis of defense, foreign policy and national security issues). Clips from two different articles:
"ISIL and its allies are proceeding to carve out a Sunni heartland between the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers, stretching from Syria to the gates of Baghdad. The organization has demonstrated meticulous governance and administrative capabilities as it consolidates its gains, suggesting longevity and an ability for self-reliance.
"BP and ExxonMobil have ordered a partial evacuation of oilfields in southern Iraq. And, in a note to clients, Citi’s Seth Kleinman suggests that, even though they do not necessarily face a direct threat, foreign oil companies are less likely to invest the billions of dollars required for new Iraqi production amid such insecurity."
From Reuter's, 2 hrs ago:
"Militants attacked one of Iraq's largest air bases and seized control of several small oilfields on Wednesday"
From CNN late this afternoon:
"Syrian warplanes carried out a cross-border attack on Iraqi towns this week is further evidence of the blurring between the two countries' borders as they face an offensive by Islamic extremists." Watch the video.
Baghdad virtually open to attack, no heavy weapons visible, airport not secured. If Baghdad falls, oil going to spike to the Moon.
Using SmartCharts for this analysis.
I consider a 2 yr. chart of weekly prices to still be of some use with respect to charting. Decided to take a look at S&P-500 via the SPY ETF.
5, 10 and 50 week MA's holding well but Chaikin Money Flow went negative back in April & May for the first time since the Fall of 2012. It has since popped back up a bit but the accumulation / distribution line has gone flat starting back in March. More telling is the sudden drop-off of weekly volume -- under 500M since beginning of April. This could be a hint that SPY is getting tired and price is moving up on lower weekly volumes. Keep an eye on the 5-wk MA of weekly prices; if that breaks, then we could see the start of at least some sort of technical correction on the S&P.
If volume is dropping off on SPY, then where has all that trading gone? Is the new money (the money needed to drive prices upward) going somewhere else? No one sits on cash anymore so where did it go? If you wanted to put new money to work but not in the S&P, where would you put it now? What's under-valued, what's safe? PM's? Commodities?
Just my twisted opinions.
The strong breakout from $21 was due almost exclusively to short-covering driven by events in Iraq. The smart shorts have already covered, now we have to see if smart money wants to go long on PM's and silver in particular.
FORGET THE CHARTS! The PM market is being driven by fundamentals and news. Money will flow away from perceived risk and into value and hedging for safety. The Chaikin Money Flow readings of the past 3 wks are the strongest I've in the past 3 yrs. This tells us: 1) The PM market was way over-shorted, or; 2) Maybe this run-up was more than just technical short-covering -- maybe smart-money is coming back into the long side of PM's .
Charts to a trader are like animal tracks to a hunter, they help predict the direction and speed of the animal and whether or not it is injured; they can't tell you where to point the gun, only where the animal might be going. Charts can NEVER tell you when to buy or sell! Fundamentals are changes one detects in the surrounding environment such as the sound of a snapped twig, a rustling in the some bushes, something moving in the grass or the sudden absence of bird-song. These things tell you your quarry may be at hand, you don't need to look at the tracks anymore, time to point the gun in the direction of the noise -- that water buffalo is about to turn and charge out of the bush straight for you!
Charts no longer have the power and magic like they did back in the 80's & 90's. Today's high-frequency / high-volume robo-trading severely distorts short-term chart patterns. At best maybe one can discern some reliable trends looking at charts based weekly prices as opposed to daily.
If you want to know what's fundamentally going on in the PM's markets, best to monitor options activity, China activity, supply levels, futures activity and, of course, the latest geo-political situation. For example: what's going on in Iraq may have a profound impact on PM's, gotta stay o top of the news!
I No More,
" [The market] sucked under bush and has soared under obama ..."
Maybe I'm misreading your post. You said presidents don't affect markets then go on to say how things sucked under Bush but "soared" under Obama. Was that intended as a political statement or simply an example of the point you were trying to make?
Just as a reminder: the S&P grew 81% from the 2003 low to 2007 high (Bush years). The old 2007 high wouldn't be breached until Feb. of 2013.
Presidents may not affect markets directly but they certainly can indirectly by virtue of the kinds of people they place in key cabinet positions. Bush actually had some pretty sharp people in his cabinet but too many of them didn't want to be team players -- that was Bush's failure as a leader, he couldn't keep these people in line, Ronald Reagan would never had tolerated that (Reagan didn't think very highly of either Bush Sr. or W).
Like most politicians Bush prized loyalty above ability, he promoted too many of his political buddies into positions they couldn't handle and disaster soon followed. Condi Rice, for example, was a very sharp lady but was way over her head as National Security Advisor. Donald Rumsfeld (Sec. of Defense) had far more experience and resented Rice for her simplistic and often academic-oriented views of the world. Bush had no one on his national security team ho had a firm grasp of the long-term implications of a prolonged war in Iraq and Afghanistan -- they were playing it by ear. Bush's failure was that he allowed too many people to whisper conflicting ideas into both ears at the same time, he couldn't make a sound decision on anything for fear of alienating some old friend. A real leader simply doesn't do that.
Just my simple opinion.
If you wondering what just happened, suggest you go to SLV board and look up Seeking Alpha article "Is Silver Set Up for Huge Short Squeeze", dated 12-June. Article still on main news list but probably will drop off soon. If so, just go back through the older articles & you'll see it. Well worth the read (and I'm not a big fan of SA but they do have some good contributors every once in a while.). OBTW: article includes lots of links to author's sources of information, reader comments fairly decent as well.
Long-story-short: short-sellers of Silver WAY over extended & will need to cover big time even on a modest pump in silver prices. Major supply shortages building for industrial users, demand way up. Silver historically way under-priced relative to gold; either gold has to come way down (not likely) or silver has to start moving up (more likely). The writer's opinions are based on hard data from which he supplies sources.
My opinion: Every time Obama opens his mouth about Iraq, smart money starts running for the exits and into safety. Yup, we're going to send 300 MILITARY advisors (code word for Special Forces) to "help" the Iraqis but we're not going to be militarily involved in any fighting -- yeah right. Betting Baghdad will fall before end of August. Air power from a single aircraft carrier could've easily stopped ISIS main attack force dead in it's tracks had we responded when the Iraqis first asked us. Every time we try to leave this place they just pull us back in. These fundamentalist 12th century Islamic groups have two major goals: the destruction of Israel and that Great Satan in the west, the United States. THAT's what this is all about.
If you don't like the company then don't buy the stock. If you bought the stock earlier, then sell, take the loss like a man and get out -- you obviously don't feel comfortable with your position. Why bore everyone else with this endless drivel? Why should PLSB, or any company for that matter, share their confidential information with you?
"Can distributors sell competitor's beverages?"
What makes you think a little start-up like Pulse Bev is going to dictate to a major distributor what products they can, or cannot, sell?
"... why wouldn't they [distributors] be more supportive of products that are supported by advertisng budgets?"
The fact that a distributor agrees to take on a new product is, in itself, a testament to the perceived viability of that product. PLSB is now distributed in 47 states. with a strong presence focused on the West Coast, in the North West and South West. Do you honestly believe a distributor would knowingly handle a #$%$ product?
Re. "competitor's beverages" . Pulse has some competition in the lemonade space but discriminating consumers are staying away from the high-refined-sugar / high-fructose-corn-syrup and high-caffeine drinks and flavored carbonated beverages in deference to something much more health-oriented.
Coconut water is a relatively new beverage trend and Pulse is hitting it nicely for the summer season. There are only four recognizable brands currently in this space: O.N.E., Harvest Bay, Zico and Vita Coco. Vita and Zico are Brazilian imports, so I doubt you're going to find them at your local grocer -- that leaves only two brands in this space. O.N.E. appears to be widely-distributed including many of the same grocery chains as Pulse Bev. Harvest Bay seems confined to vitamin and health-food stores. So O.N.E. stands as the only real competitor to Pulse Bevs in this narrow niche market.
The coming functional beverages are fairly unique products that can be consumed all year long. There are lots of vitamin waters and so-called energy drinks out there but the functional bevs are in a category all by themselves in my opinion. Once again, the discriminating health-concsious consumer will love the stuff.
The Coconut Water seems to have hit the ground running, strong sales right from the get-go. Pulse can only squeeze (pardon the pun) so much from lemonade sales, especially given it's strictly a summertime product. The Coconut Water should fill in the gap as it's intended as a year-round beverage. However, they really need to get the functional beverage line going -- supposedly going to start shipping "sometime" in the summer. Once all three product lines are moving, things should start looking up.
The lemonades were well received when first introduced, the Coconut Water seems to be a success, so I'm guessing the functional bevs will be a hit as well. I think a $1.00 stock price is a bit premature for this year, looking more at 70-80 cents if sales begin to ramp up. I'll give Pulse another year unless they do something really stupid management-wise or the products just plain don't sell -- consumers can be very fickle. I wish they had more money for improved marketing but all small start-ups have that problem -- you gotta make money before you can spend it.
Hey, it's Baldy, our favorite hairless rodent! It's springtime, should have known you'd come climbing out of your little hole-in-the-ground.
Tell us the latest on that train wreck known as Jones Soda. You know who they are don't you, Baldy? That's the company you kept pumping on this board for almost a a year. From what I'm reading sounds like they're headed towards certain BK. You don't seem to be posting on the JSDA board so much these days, wonder why?
Please do stay in touch, we all just love your little brain droppings of idiocy.
There's no fear in the equity markets, no immediate concern over inflation. No one is buying PMs right now, there are better places to park your money for the short term. If you look a weekly prices & volume on a 2-3 yr. chart, you'll see these periods of slow sustained distribution on relatively modest volumes.
It's not a question of why people are selling SLW -- more like SLW is not attracting enough buyers to hold up the price. Bargain hunters will start nibbling below $20 along with some short-covering. This is NOT the time to be shorting here, nor would I be buying just yet -- wait for a nice up-day & note the volume. Wait & see whether or not there's any power behind the move.
It's no big surprise that SLV is exhibiting pretty much the same pattern as SLW. Never the less, this stock can whipsaw on you in a blink if you're not nimble. This is a long-term play not a day-trading vehicle, gotta be patient & time your buys with care.
As always, JMHO.
I think you're comparing apples and oranges. I saw a statement in one of the SEC filings where mgmt. addressed this issue (sorry, can't recall specific document). They basically said he advertising budget for any given quarter is in proportion to sales from previous quarters; the more they sell, the more $$ they put into advertising. I think this is a sound strategy for a development-stage company -- you want to make every advertising dollar count.
It doesn't make sense to ramp up a large expensive national campaign while still building out your distribution network and one of your key product lines (the functional drinks) won't hit the shelves until later this summer. Even a modest advertising campaign can easily run into the millions of dollars, look at what Coke & Pepsi spend each year. I rather not see Pulse take on extensive debt at this point just to fund advertising.
Another point to consider: mgmt. made it clear that once the company reaches a "critical mass" in sales, they may seek out a buyer; that could be a factor in the decision to keep advertising budgets under tight control for now. A larger company with well-known brands will have an extensive advertising program in place via an existing network of ad agencies and various promotional services. Adding an extra product line to an existing mix is not nearly as expensive as starting a new advertising program from scratch.
Re. "stock promotion": I view this as a necessary cost of doing business if you're a publicly-traded company. How are you going to attract potential investors if they don't know you exist? Stock promotion is just another kind of advertising but directed at investors instead of consumers. Many companies (like Apple Computer for example) were in business for years before going public, they already had name and brand recognition, investors were well acquainted with the company and its products by the time of the IPO.
As always, JMHO.