UPDATE: Daily Record apparently published the results of a new poll today -- and guess what? "No" votes are ahead by six points. Those against independence: 53%; in favor: 47% (undecideds excluded). Check out recent on-line article in this evening's The Telegraph.
Looking at FXB (American ETF for British Pound), trading up nicely today, first sign of strength since July. Although somewhat thinly-traded, FXB's volume EXPLODED today -- 325,299 shr. vs. avg. of 21,045 -- that's over TEN TIMES normal volume!!!!
UUP (USD Bullish ETF) was up nicely mid-day then stalled in the afternoon to close essentially even on the day. Tomorrow should be interesting: will UUP stall (or drop) as GBP regains strength?
USD/GBP ratio closed today to almost where it was at market open on Monday.
Keep an eye on the EUR/USD ratio (currently at 1.2923) as it may be putting in a bottom here. I always check commentary from FXdaily, they do some interesting chart analysis on currency trades. They're expecting the EURO to do some kind of technical snap-back before going lower.
PM prices have little to do with U.S. monthly economic data, it's the USD that you have to watch. Sometimes geopolitical issues can drive up PM's, but those tend to affect all the markets. The USD is still considered a short term haven of safety for traders dumping the Pound and the Euro. In other words, the USD is a kind of parking lot until they find something better. Money / capital is like water, always sloshing back-and-forth as the market tides change -- maybe not the best analogy but the only one I could think of at the moment.
Another issue: PM's should NEVER be used as investments, use them for hedging or short-term trading if you must. A typical investor should never hold more than 5% - 7% of their total portfolio in PM's, 10% may be ok in certain situations.
Also: September can be a freaky month now that our fearless leader has allowed ISIS to run amuck all over the world, Sept. 11th has become a rallying date for these thugs to do their dirty work. Then we have the outcome of the Scottish independence vote coming up on the 18th. FYI: there's will be another opinion poll released tomorrow from the Survation Daily Record and the last major poll released on the 17th conducted by YouGov. As I said in a previous post: in a poll conducted yesterday some 18% of those who said they were definitely going to vote were still undecided as to which way. 18% is a LOT of voters, how can they be undecided over such an important issue?
What I'm saying here is don't dump your position just yet, I have a gut feeling the Scottish people aren't really all that cranked up about the independence thing; it seems to be the ultra-leftwing types who are pushing to establish some sort of socialist utopia (i.e., communist). Scotland has been a member of the UK for some 300 years -- plenty of time to declare independence -- why now? If Scotland votes to stay in the UK, the Pound will bounce back with a vengeance and USD will pull back.
According to a popular UK polling service (TNS / BMRB) the results from a poll conducted today shows that 18% of those planning to vote are still undecided. I found this rather odd given the importance of the event and the fact that the vote itself is only nine days away. So why all this fuss over how many people have claimed they'll vote "yes" vs. "No" ? This latest poll covered only 900 people.
With an 18% undecided metric, the yes / no metric strikes me as being totally inconclusive and basically meaningless at this point. So why are the currency markets responding to this statistical drivel? If independence is such a hot-button issue for them why aren't the polls showing a resounding "yes" vote? How can we be a mere nine days away from the vote and still have 18% of the people undecided? I'm not sensing a strong conviction here, you'd think these people would be running naked through the streets with battle shields, painted faces, flailing swords and yelling "Fre-e-e-e-dom !! "
If this thing is voted down, watch the Pound rebound, the USD drop and PM's go up. Right now, the markets are responding to nothing but a bunch of opinion polls that are hardly conclusive.
Recent USD strength NOT due economic news -- caused by collapse of Pound & Euro. Scottish independence will be devastating to GB's GDP and bring down Pound. The recent drop is in response to a public opinion poll showing 51% approval for independence -- this is a big deal over there & will impact global currency markets.
The Euro banking cartel is screwing around their currency again -- investors no longer think the Euro is safe (was it ever?) -- USD is only major global reserve currency deemed to be safe ... at the moment.
There's good explanation of all this from a recent YouTube video piece published by FXdaily -- just Google "Us dollar gold FXdaily"
OK, just this one last post and that's it. I really, really, REALLY mean it this time (pretty certain I think).
Trying to do TA on a penny stock is a futile effort but there IS one metric we can look at as a rough gauge as to whether or not this company is being taken seriously -- volume. This is a sub-dollar stock and it's barely trading 40K shrs avg. per day with some days below 10K. And it's been like that for the past year. Even on the rare event the price pops up or there's was some good news, volume goes up a to measly 200K at best.
And yet a train wreck like Jones Soda (JSDA), trading in the same price range as PLSB, manages to generate 104K shr. avg. volume per day True, Jones is better-known and older than dirt, but there's a very active trading community out there still supporting the stock.
Which means virtually NO ONE is supporting PLSB -- and you gotta wonder why? Look at their chart: some folks call this a pump-and-dump, I call it a pump-and-SLUMP. The stock wasn't dumped, people just stopped buying. And those who DID buy earlier began selling on less-than-stellar sales data and especially after the revelation that the Functional Beverage had to be re-engineered. When we learn that the reformulated Functional rollout was pushed out from June to September, we saw yet another price drop.
The products may be good but mgmt. execution has become a problem. Every startup has it's share of hiccups but PLSB should be way beyond the "start-up" phase by now -- they clearly are not, IMO. This is why new buyers are passing on PLSB.
OK, I simply have to answer this -- THEN I'll go away (sort of, maybe?).
There's no "partnership" with Smashburger, that's a gross exaggeration IMO Smashburger is just another sales outlet, no different than a grocery store chain. Pulse has a a sales agreement / contract to supply Smashburger with product and Smashburger agrees to provide shelf / cooler space for Cabana -- that hardly qualifies as a business partnership. Pulse likes to use phrases like "collaborated with", "partner with" or "partnership" to imply something more than just a simple sales agreement. IMO that's disingenuous at the very least and borders on deceptive reporting.
Maybe this is just splitting semantics hairs, but I don't like the way mgmt. characterizes these agreements.The fact that I've contracted with you to mow your lawn once a week does not make us business partners; a legal partnership is a whole different arrangement when compared to a simple sales contract.
Just search on "Smashbuger partnership" and you'll find no mention of Pulse Beverage. But search on "Smaashburger partnership Pulse" you'll see dozens of references -- most of them from various bev industry trade rags.. In fact ALL these references are sourced from a single article issued from Pulse Bev. Sales Mgr. (Paddy Sheya) via "PR Newswire". Other than that I couldn't locate any other references -- no one else seems to be commenting on it.
I do agree with you (shock, shock!!), there doesn't seem to be anything from Smashburger even though there are numerous examples of them announcing other partnerships, mostly with charitable organizations. The fact that Pulse has chosen to characterize this as something more than it is raises a huge credibility red flag for me.
Let's see if Yahoo let's this post.
This issue escaped my attention earlier, should have caught it, but I'm done with them anyway.
I replied yesterday and it posted, now it's gone!!!!!! Replied to Wooglin and that message took. Getting fed up with stupid Yahoo message boards. Always had problem with this board, seeing about every other post being deleted . Had enough, I'm out of here. Good luck. I wouldn't be throwing a whole lot of money at these penny stocks, they're NOT investments, just gambling. Save your money, build a portfolio of big-name stocks slowly over time.
2014 is the year this company makes or breaks. After that, no more excuses about being just a little ol' struggling startup company. They're supposedly selling product in some 20,000 stores nationwide but I'm not seeing the sales increase over same Q last year, especially when you throw in the new Coconut Water.
I've been a big supporter of Pulse Bev throughout the startup process and felt they had viable product in the functional drinks and doing initially respectable sales with the lemonades. But now I'm seeing yellow flags everywhere and lots of questions that aren't being addressed in these so-called "investor letters". I think they have a good product set but the stuff isn't selling. Why? Because no one knows it's out there, not to mention all the competition in the lemonade / coconut water space.
Where are the functional drinks, guys???!!!!! C'mon, it September already for crying out loud!
Let's see if the gods of Yahoo will allow me to post this?
Why do you assume she should be issuing endorsements just because she's an advisor? Besides, she was brought on to advise on the functional drinks which have yet to be rolled-out. How is she supposed to endorse a product not yet available to the public? Sorry you hurt yourself trying to think so hard, the headaches will go away in a few hours, drink some Coconut Water, that'll help!
If PM's are so bad right now, why was Au selling @ 1284 at market-open on Tuesday? What's changed? From what I can see not much of anything other than the USD going up. Most of this activity is computer-based algorithmic driven. These are machines "trained" to respond to the breakdown of key technical supports like 1280, 1275 and now 1270. The "thought" processes are based on horribly-complex formulas utilizing literally hundreds of weighted variables including the USD as a key component. Fundamentally, not much else has changed.
The Ukraine is being treated largely as a regional problem as Putin couldn't fight his way out of a soggy paper bag. The Mid-East has basically been abandoned to ISIS, no one in the U.S.cares about some reporters having their heads cut off (not chopped). Nor, apparently, is anyone overly concerned about those 11 missing commercial aircraft after ISIS took over the airport in Tripoli -- I'm sure they'll turn up somewhere.
I don't trade SLW per se, just buy & hold. Collect the tiny divy but like the volatility for writing covered calls. Gave up trying to predict market movements years ago, its all computer-driven high-frequency stuff nowadays, little guy gets crushed. I'm thinking bargain hunters & hedgies my come creeping around below $23. If the USD pulls back, even a little bit, money will slosh back into PM's again.
Technical analysis of a penny stock is a waste of time! You guys are comparing apples to oranges, PLSB is start-up still fleshing out its distribution network -- this is not a mature company like JSDA, REED, PEP or KO. Further more, I'm not aware of any company specializing exclusively in the kind of functional health drink Pulse Bev. is trying to market. The closest comparison would be those totally useless vitamin waters.
The lemonades & coconut water are a different story -- way too much competition in that sector. Never the less, Pulse generated enough sales from these products to keep the company running until the functional drinks are ready. However, the latest sales data is telling me the combined sales of coconut water & lemonades isn't doing all that well compared to same Q last year; a disturbing revelation considering the delayed rollout of the functional drinks (which was supposed to happen in June but has since been pushed out to September).
And when the functionals DO rollout, what is Pulse going to use as an advertising budget? Up until now, advertising costs have been tied to sales; the more sales grow, the more they can spend on advertising. Without STRONG lemonade & coconut water sales, there isn't going to be much in the budget to promote the functional drinks. And if they don't have a HUGE promotional advertising campaign, the stuff is just going to set on the shelves because no one is going to know what it is. I fear this is what may have happened to the lemonades.
Another issue that bothers me is mgmt.'s reluctance to discuss same-store sales -- indeed, do they even know how they're doing week to week on a store-by-store basis? They're quick to inform us about signing up a new distributor but say nothing about how much product is on the shelves or how quickly it's moving. I'd think they would have that kind of data by now and would be pleased to make it available in the quarterly filings or an investor letter.
As always, JMHO
Why? Because the Russian military is a bigger joke than the Russian economy. They should've crushed key Ukrainian military strongholds within 48-hours and subdued the entire country in under two weeks. Putin had to act now because the Fall rains are going to turn the whole region into a giant mud bog, bad for heavy equipment like tanks. Good article in 18-Aug issue of Barron's, "Putin's Big Miscalculation".
Founder of the private intelligence service Stratfor, George Friedman says: "Putin as exhausted most, if not all, of his options. He can't risk invading Ukraine unless he moves very quickly. In six weeks or so, autumn rains will make much of the country's eastern marshes a muddy quagmire that will bog down any tanks he sends in."
"Putin can't be assured of military success give the sad state of his military forces."
That was published 16 days ago and this is exactly what Putin has done.
Just doing a quick peruse of the 10-Q, here are some things that caught my eye:
-- Net Sales 2014 vs. 2013 Q2 comparison: 1,358,220 vs. 1,330,969
Don't like it! With all the new stores added since 2013 sales of lemonades should have gone UP significantly, not move sideways. Also, the 2013 Q2 sales did not include the coconut water or some of the other lemonades.
-- Gross Profit : 467,511 vs. 501,167
Once again, with all the new stores that came on-line over the past year, that's the best they can do?
-- During Q2-2014, gross revenues, on sales of 125,739 cases of Natural Cabana Lemonade, Limeade and Coconut Water (Q2-2013 - 125,732)
They're selling product at 20,000 different locations, so that averages out to 125,739 / 20,000 = 6.3 cases per location over a 3-month period; that comes out to 0.53 cases (at 24 bottles per case) per week per store. So: (24 bottles per case x 0.53 cases) / 7 days per week = 1.8 bottles per day.
#$%$ -- THAT'S LESS THAN TWO FRACKING BOTTLES PER DAY PER STORE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And Q2 includes two prime summertime selling months. Furthermore the 127,739 case figure includes the coconut water, I didn't see a sales breakdown by specific product. They appear to have commingled the lemonades and c-water together, but I'm beginning to suspect that plain old Cabana lemonade ain't carrying its fair share of the sales load anymore.
Remember, most of these stores are located (wisely) in, or near, high-traffic urban centers where one would expect lots of upscale health-conscious consumers with money. You'd think by now most of these stores would be selling at least a half a case per day on average just from word-of-mouth advertising.
Once again: I'm not a pumper (or dumper) and I'm a big fan of Pulse and their products, but something ain't adding up here. More later.
Generally speaking, I agree with pretty much everything you said. Even though I'm a strong supporter of Pulse products there are definitely some yellow flags waving here. As I stated for about a year now, 2014 should show us a maturing company entering it's growth phase -- these guys aren't there yet and I'm finding that a bit frustrating.
Haven't read the 10-Q yet, just the shareholder letter. Here's one point that bother's me re. the functional drinks:
" ... we expect the roll-out of our newly designed and reformulated PULSE® Heart and Body Health functional beverages in September 2014." Huh???!!!!! #$%$? I distinctly recall Yates claiming during the May webcast that the rollout was on schedule for JUNE!, n a recent SEC filing they said "by mid-Summer". Hello-o-o-o?? September is NOT mid-summer. Had Yates stated back in May that the roll-out was scheduled for the August-October timeframe then it wouldn't have bothered me quite as much.
I understand timing these things can be difficult to pin down, but Yates should have known while preparing for the May conference that there was no way in a bag of horse apples he was going to have product rolling out-the-door. Personally, I think the guy was just reading some outdated viewgraphs; you could actually hear someone flipping the foils in the audio -- did anyone catch that, LOL?
Gotta go, will post later tonight re. 10-Q.
Hey Baldy, I just noticed Jones Soda (JSDA) dropped 50% since last Fall. How many years have they been in business?
Hope you scraped all that egg from your face before it dried out, dried egg yoke is really tough to remove. Don't forget to finish up that leftover crow setting in the back of the fridge.
I'm sorry Baldy, apparently you've posted on the wrong board. I believe you meant to post on the JSDA board. I seem to remember you coming over here pumping Jones Soda all the time, sorry for your loss.
"I'm wary of a company that continually increases its distribution network without any meaningful sales."
OK, I see where you're coming from. That's a good point. I'm cutting them some slack until we see how Q3 sales (big summer months) turn out given the introduction of the coconut water. Also concerned over the so-caled roll-out of the functional drinks. Did it start in June as promised? Is iin-progress? A simple one-liner on the website would be helpful.
Another thing that bothers me a bit is they always compare current Q sales to same Q year ago; that's really a bit misleading for a startup company, IMO. That's like saying, "We sold only 200 cases of Product-X in Q2-2014 compared to 50 cases in Q2-2013. a whopping 400% increase in sales! " Mgmt. did address this issue somewhat in one of their filings by claiming they use this method due to the seasonality of the products -- you gotta compare apples-to-apples, so to speak. I don't completely buy into that logic -- people drink what they like year round, we're not talking about chocolate easter bunnies, eggnog or Christmas cookies here.
Why is it so difficult to grasp this concept?
A new food / beverage product lives & dies by customer acceptance. Big companies test market and tweak new products long before formal introduction to the consumer world. It's simply is a waste of money advertising a new product before collecting solid performance metrics; you gotta know what's gonna sell BEFORE you dump millions into advertising -- duh-h-h?!!!
Pulse is a SMALL micro-cap start-up still in its growth phase; they're putting their limited funds into product development, distributors and product placement. I can tell you right now that any future advertising will almost certainly be modest and focused primary in specific urban / upscale regions where the products are well placed. You don't build brand recognition over night. Take a look at what Coke or Pepsi spend on advertising their carbonated colored sugar water. They can afford to spend that much because they spend nearly a century building their brand names and winning customer acceptance.
Pulse Bev. products are focused more towards upscale discriminating health-conscious consumers, not Wall Mart shoppers stuffing Big Macs into their faces. When funds do become available I suspect they'll start advertising in the health & fitness or sports venues first. For starters, I can see posters & static displays in vitamin shops, high-end grocery stores, fitness centers, upscale "health food" eateries and so on. This recent deal with Smash Burger is a modest but excellent starting point IMO from both a sales and advertising standpoint. People will not only see the product, they may be inclined to try one with their meal.
Baldy, don't you have anything better to do than sit at your computer waiting for me to post? I know I'm a popular guy but this is kinda creeping me out. Your reply came about 30 seconds after I posted.
May I suggest you spend more time researching PLSB rather than bashing it. You may be surprised to know that management's intent is to grow the company to point where a larger beverage firm might buy then out. That's yet another reason not to spend a lot of money on advertising right now. All they have to do is prove the products sell and there's a strong consumer interest.
Speaking of therapy: CBT is old news, you sound like a good candidate for that new leading-edge therapy called DAR -- Dumb As Rocks.