Hi Jane, long-time-no-hear.
Maintaining my powerful muscular physic and incredible stamina requires discipline and total commitment. I jog / walk / hike regardless of conditions, the weather means nothing to me.
Sorry about PLSB, frankly I'm surprised you're still supporting them, I gave up & dumped the stock a while back. It was a worthwhile gamble at best & I gave them plenty of time to get through some growing pains, but there's clearly something very wrong here.
The latest sales numbers say it all, the chronically-low trading volume says a lot too -- not even the penny-stock momentum players want to touch this thing. PLSB has pretty much been abandoned even as a pump & dump candidate.
Mgmt. is silent about the "rollout" of the reformulated functional drinks yet they keep announcing new distribution "deals". The lemonades / coconut water are seasonal products and not doing well on a year-over-year basis. IMO, It's becoming clear the reformulated / re-labled functional drinks are a pipe-dream & I'm guessing the lack of funds may be the reason why.
Hope you're still not holding on to them, the price dropped nearly 50% since i sold.
Dividend payout ratio = 34%, pretty decent.
In other words 34% of annual earnings are paid out in dividends. As a general rule-of-thumb for most companies, anything under 50% is considered fairly conservative. If PDS earnings dropped by half, that would put the payout ratio at 68%, a bit riskier but still pretty safe.
For comparison, here are the payout ratios from some other energy companies:
HAL = 15%
SLB = 29%
BP = 91% (they're paying a 5% divy)
CVX = 38%
XOM = 33%
NBR = 15%
PTEN = 42%
As you can see, with the exception of BP, PSD's payout ratio is pretty much in line with everyone else.
Game over, move along, there's nothing more to see here. Single digits by New Year's day. I dumped this after dismal Q2 numbers, stock price was twice what it is now!
Sorry, but It's over folks. Any company that goes public via a reverse merger (remember Darlington Mining?) is almost certainly a pump & dump operation. I didn't catch on to that fact until after I bought it, but decided to hold out for another pump & then sell. The second pump didn't happen because there was nothing to pump & mgmt. couldn't afford to pay another "analyst" to do it again.
The next time I feel like gambling, I'm hittin' the blackjack tables, better chance at winning something!
At 20-cents per share and declining, PSR & other metrics are pretty meaningless at this point, ditto for charting. They might have some validity if daily volume cranked up to the millions instead of a few thousand shares.
"Pulse will be bigger than jones soda ... "
You DO realize that Jones Soda is a total train wreck, right? Comparing Pulse to Jones is nothing more than comparing one loser with another. Actually Pulse is the bigger loser because Jones at least has brand recognition and you see their products everywhere.
I lost all of my money trading Ultimate Stock Alerts!
They put a virus on my computer, stole my identity, hacked my bank accounts. Now I'm homeless and getting my meals out of the dumpster behind Wendy's. The stuff isn't all that bad but partially-eaten salads tend to wilt really bad on warm days. I particularly enjoy licking the melted cheese and grease off the wrappers, but you have to get 'em while they're still warm, otherwise the cheese just sticks to that foil paper.
Don't let this happen to you, stay away from Ultimate Stock Alerts!
I lost all my money buying recommendations from Ultimate Stock Alerts! Now I'm forced to scavenge the highways for fresh roadkill. Sure glad winter is here, roadkill doesn't spoil right away, gives me more time to harvest the carcasses. It's tough out there competing with the stray dogs, cats, hawks and buzzards, gotta stake your claim early.
One day, while cutting up a recently-departed deer, I ran into this fellow down on his luck. I asked him how did he fall into such desperate condition and told me he lost all his money using Ultimate Stock Alerts. Well imagine my surprise! I learned there were several others in my neighborhood who lost all their money trading stock recommendations from Ultimate Stock Alerts. This is really bad because there's not enough roadkill in the area to feed all of us and winter is upon us now.
Wo is me, how could I have allowed Ultimate Stock Alerts to put me in such sad circumstances? Don't let this happen to you, and if it does, stay out of my neighbor hood -- find your own roadkill.
Some more funds unloading I think, OIH (sector ETF) nailed hard today as well. All the down volume came in first 30-min of trading. Weak holiday trading, most traders not at work, no one available to buy. Never the less noticed some solid buying interest right before the close.
Another point: go to OIH & read article titled, "Oil Services ETFs Wait on Next Dividend Cut". It references an article in Barron's, click on the "Barron's" hypertext if you want more details.
Also: go to etftrends website and search for 6-OCT article titled, "Dividend Speculation a Problem for Oil Services ETFs". Transocean, in particular, seems to be in trouble with respect to their bonds. There's been a recent increase in credit default swap activity (CDS, a kind of bond insurance vehicle) over the past couple of months. Another negative article from Barron's from 2-OCT, "Offshore Drillers: Are Dividends in Danger?"
IMO the drop in PDS since late September has just as much to do with dividend scare stories as the drop in oil prices. Despite that, PDS's chart is virtually identical to the OIL (iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil TR ETN.
Just happen to notice: two of the companies (DO, ORIG) mentioned in some of these dividend-cut scare articles have payout ratios of 127% & 131% respectively. Also, most of the dividends mentioned appear to be SPECIAL dividends as opposed to REGULAR quarterly dividends. Special dividend payouts can vary quite a bit, so I don't understand all the fuss over a cut or temporary suspension -- look at what these guys were paying out over the past few years!
Some of the other companies that i looked at all appear to have solid cash holdings and decent debt-to-operating-cash-flow ratios along with payout ratios
Interesting article re. OPEC putting the squeeze on American shale oil operations. North Sea Brent would have to drop to $60 to significantly impact U.S. producers. Further more, fracking industry has been working hard at lowering costs. Arabs are playing a losing game, IMO. OPEC will unravel as Russia, Venezuela & other members revolt.
Look up "The biggest game of chicken in the history of business", American Thinker
Larry Kudlow's Saturday show (29-NOV) had excellent opening half hour discussion about impact of declining oil prices & how oil stocks will adjust, some interesting guests who know the business. You can get this via podcast from wabcradio website. Just click on his name, select "PODCASTS" then select by broadcast date, no commercials. Well worth the time to give it a listen even if you don't care much for Kudlow.
According to guests, E & P experts say most U.S. fracking operations easily profitable down to the $45 - $50 area, but Canadian producers are feeling the pain @ $65 - $70. Also: highly-leveraged & high-debt operations most likely to get hit the hardest.
Cash( mrq) = $166K
Operating Cash Flow (ttm) = -$2.25M
Revenue (ttm) = $3.16M
YoY quarterly revenue growth = 3%
Gross Profit (ttm) = $1.06M
Book Value (mrq) = $0.06 / shr.
Enterprise Value / EBITDA ratio = - 4.40, in other words, meaningless.
The YoY quarterly revenue growth is virtually non-existant at a lousy three percent -- the product isn't moving. They were supposed to have positive operating cash flow by now, not even close. There won't be a "rollout" of the "new" reformulated / relabeled functional drinks because they can't afford to make the changes, that's why they've been pushing out the release dates.
These guys are financially trapped:
1) They can't count on sales because the products are just setting on the shelves (assuming they made it THAT far);
2) They can't borrow because no reputable financial institution would throw away money on a company with no real asset value;
3) If they try to issue new shares, that would cause dilution and lower the stock price even more. The few remaining shareholders would all bolt through the door at once and drive the stock down to just a few pennies a share.
4) Their costs are only going to go up while sales stay flat at best or quite possibly decline even more.
Do what I did: just take the hit to your ego and dump this loser, nothing good is going to come of it. I showed you the numbers, they don't lie. There's no magic bullet or catalyst that's going to turn this thing around.
Was at a local health / vegetarian food store perusing the beverage section and noticed eight different brands of coconut water. -- EIGHT!! Can't recall all their names but remember two of them: Blue Monkey and C2O were prominently displayed at eye-level. Sorry, no Pulse. This is why their coconut water "brand" was DOA the day they rolled it out -- too much competition. Competitors taking up all the limited shelf space.
I'm looking at the sales numbers wondering who's out there buying their products? Even word-of-mouth via Twitter, Facebook & various independent health-related bloggers would have generated far more sales than what they're getting from their alleged 20,000 outlets. I really have to question how many of these 20,000 stores actually have product on the shelf.
Let's do so more math for our good friend Jane: if each store sold just one bottle a day for 90-days (one quarter) we would have 1 X 20,000 X 90 = 1, 800, 000 bottles per Q. According to their website there are 12 bottles in a case, so 1,800,00 / 12 = 150,000 cases of product per Q. The last 10-Q said they sold " ... more than 100,000 cases ... " total for ALL products. What does "more than" mean? Is this some new accounting terminology? Why can't they give us the EXACT number sold? Sounds kinda sloppy doesn't it?
The 10-Q from Q2 clearly stated they sold 125,739 cases total. Even THAT is still below the one-bottle-a-daytper-store expectation of 150,000 cases. Like I said -- THE STUFF AIN'T SELLIN' OR IT AIN'T EVEN ON THE SHELF.
Correction to last post: " ... 12 bottles in a case, so 1,800,00 / 12 = 150,000 cases ..." Left out a zero, should read: 1,800,000 / 12.
Yeah, I remember your posts. I was trying to charitable back then & give these guys time to make a few mistakes & get their act together. Thought maybe sales would climb, thought they would make extensive use of cheap / free advertising via internet-based & social-networking sites, blogs, etc. It's become painfully obvious these guys are stuck in the 70's when it comes to advertising, they haven't a clue. This company should be run by a 20-yr old kid, not some 69-yr. old old guy struggling to dig himself out of bankruptcy debt !
Look at what these clowns are paying themselves: Yates = $112K, Sheya = $108K! They claim to have 22 full-time employees -- doing what?!!!!!!! They're struggling to push out 100,000 cases, why do they need 22 people? With only $166K cash mrq, they're barely holding enough coin to meet rent, leases, utilities and payroll.
More math for Jane, LOL: Yates & Sheya's combined salaries ($220K/yr.) comes out to about $18K/mo.; that leaves $148K for everyone & everything else. If each of the 20 remaining employees received just a paltry $3K/mo. average salary, that comes out to $66K, leaving just $82K to cover all other expenses including manufacturing. You can play around with the salary numbers but it doesn't make any difference, there's not enough cash.
This company has a huge NEGATIVE operating cash flow of $2.25M against sales of only $3.16M! At best, this stock is only "worth" it's stated book value ........... SIX CENTS!
Jane, Jane, Jane!
When they built Rome they had a PLAN! And do you know why Rome finally fell and virtually burnt to the ground? They ran out of money. The treasury was looted by wealthy senators. Eventually they couldn't even pay their army to suppress the growing hordes of barbarians.
OBTW: Monster Bev. Corp. was originally known as the Hansen Natural company until they changed their name. Hansen Natural used be the Fresh Juice Company of California (which went bankrupt). Prior to that they were known as Hansen's Natural Sodas and go back to the 1930's. Monster was never a start-up.
Last day to sell in time for settlement by 31-DEC: 26-DEC in U.S., 24-DEC in Canada. I see this as sliding to $4.00 area by then. Wonder how much this is contributing to recent drop?
Funny, OIH (oil services sector ETF) closed down only 0.76 % today. A big Canadian financial services firm (CIBC) lowered their price target on PDS today, that probably has more to do with the sell-off than the drop in oil. Target slid from $14.48 USD down to $10.53 USD, or $16.50 CAD to $12.00 CAD
My Poor Misguided Little Jane,
You have no idea what the Great Depression was all about, we didn't even get close to that point in 2008. During the 1930's you had major DE-flation, 25% unemployment and people literally STARVING to death. The sub-prime mortgage mess actually unfolded in 2007 & had little to do with the crash of 2008, it was already in-progress by that time. The mess in 2008 - 2009 was caused when major insurance companies and some financial houses couldn't make good on all the Credit Default Swaps (i.e., bond insurance) they were writing. Then people started trading these things in market that was virtually unregulated by the SEC. CDS's were classified as insurance products.
Trillions of dollars of U.S. CDS's spewed out into virtually every major financial institution in the world. And why not, every U.S. rating agency gave these things AAA ratings -- how safe can you get. When the possibility of a major default hit the markets, the value of these things dropped like a rock because they were grossly overvalued. A global panic and major credit crisis ensued. The Fed. had to dump hundreds of billions into the U.S. banking system literally over-night to stave off a complete economic collapse. We had to show the rest of the world our credit was good. The world runs on credit and debt, not cash or gold.
When there's a problem with credit, then banks stop lending; when banks stop lending, businesses can't function; which is why global industrial output virtually dried up until the spring of 2009.
In 2008 the govt. could have bought, or underwritten, virtually every mortgage in the U.S. for around $800B, but they actually spent over two TRILLION dollars cleaning up the CDS mess. The CDS market at that time was valued at around $30T, dwarfing the mortgage market.
Sad, sad, Jane:
You shouldn't stay up so late crafting such horribly inadequate responses to my brilliant and witty commentary. Please, you need your beauty rest! I hate to tell you this, but the world (at least Western Europe) has been running on credit-based banking since the days of the DeMedici's and Leonardo Da Vinci. Just thought you'd want to know that interesting factoid.
Well I see PLSB has dropped ANOTHER penny on expanded volume again -- if, indeed, one can really call 100K shares of a 17-cent stock actual volume. Sigh. If you really believe in this company, why not sell your shares now, wait until it drops down to 6-cents, then buy back three times the number of shares in anticipation for that big breakout you belief is just around the corner?
What, exactly, is it they all do? How can a company selling at 15-cents a share justify paying their top two senior executives a combined salary of. +$200,000 / yr.? Tic - toc, tic - toc. Time is running out! Sell now, at least you'll have enough money for a decent steak dinner tonight, maybe even dinner for two!
Jane, do you know what I think? Well OF COURSE you do, what a silly question. I think PLSB isn't taking in enough in sales to cover production costs to put stock on the shelves for all those 20,000 stores; either that, or the stock they did ship is STILL setting there. I just can't get my mind around the pathetic sales numbers given the large number of outlets -- something clearly ain't right. I've done the numbers in a previous post: even if each store sold, on average, just one bottle at day, last Q sales should've been at least 50,000 cases MORE than what they actually stated.
Jane, tell us: where are the reformulated / relabeled functional drinks they promised to roll out in June?
I bought in the 80-90-cent area and sold at 44-cents (remember those good ol' days?). I freely admit I felt like a fool for holding that long. Still, I knew this was a gamble & decided to give them a little more time to get things up-and-running. I used the proceeds from the sale to buy a couple of porcelain dental crowns
and a tablet computer (fun!). So, at least I have something to show for it. When you lose ALL of your money, what will you have to show for it? NOTHING.
My Lovely Jane,
Now THAT was a witty comeback, should've seen it coming!
As to the reformulated functional drinks: if you have some, please share with us when and where the company announced the rollout, I didn't see anything listed. Did you purchase your drinks at a store or via on-line? Given that I and others on this board have commented on this subject numerous times over the past six months, I find it odd you just now decided to share that piece of info. with us.
I went over to the PLSB website and clicked on "Pulse Drink" and guess what I saw? the "Mens" formula, the "Heart" formula and the "Women's" formula. Then you have the "Women's Variety Pack" and a "Men's Variety Pack". That's the OLD labeling, my dear! Mgmt. stated numerous times about how customers found the labeling confusing so they decided to change it and alter the formulations accordingly. I checked the "What's New" Pulse Blog and found only a story / video about the coconut water.
So give us some details as to what the new labeling looks like, because it sure doesn't show up on their website. You must be talking about the new coconut water, it's OK to be a little confused.