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DoubleLine Total Return Bond I Message Board

weblvr 27 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 24, 2015 1:01 PM Member since: Nov 6, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Secondary Offering

    by tongap Feb 20, 2015 10:28 AM
    weblvr weblvr Feb 24, 2015 1:01 PM Flag

    Does the offering explain the drop on Friday? This thing is beginning to scare me as the chart continues to go down post-offering. The timing seems unusual in that an offering so close to x-div means they have to pay dividends to more investors since there is incentive to buy today at reduced pps and harvest the dividend which is a win-win for investors. The caveat is that the pps will not increase which seems to be the pattern as of late and may drop more than the dividend as is sometimes the case. Your thoughts?

  • weblvr by weblvr Feb 17, 2015 12:59 PM Flag

    I believe that TRN has its own fleet of railcars that they lease out. They will have to upgrade those as well at significant cost to be in compliance. I don't know the percentage of oil cars vrs dry bulk; let's hope that it's low................

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Conference Call Positive

    by weblvr Feb 11, 2015 8:55 PM
    weblvr weblvr Feb 12, 2015 1:04 PM Flag

    I read somewhere that it takes a couple of miles to turn a large ship around...........
    Good to see some green this morning, though.

  • Some good news. Earnings exceeded estimates and up over last quarter. Up $.03 USD after hours. Mebbe this ship will turn around after all in spite of the currency exchange issue. Think positive!

  • Reply to

    CAD!

    by lastcavalier_2000 Jan 8, 2015 5:23 PM
    weblvr weblvr Feb 3, 2015 1:52 PM Flag

    I did some quick figuring this morning. The Loonie is worth around $.78 USD. STB gets paid in USD as most of their business is in the US. They pay their divvys in the weak Loonie, realizing a 20% spread on the currency exchange. On 83 million shares outstanding that presumably are paid dividends, they are making a LOT of money on the spread. A LOT of money that is not being passed on to shareholders. While this was probably unanticipated, it adds a new dimension to their business profile. My feeling is that a special dividend should be paid or in some fashion spread the wealth with the shareholders. End of rant. Still holding.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Thought I Made A Smart.................

    by stormfront2020 Jan 29, 2015 11:24 AM
    weblvr weblvr Jan 31, 2015 10:01 PM Flag

    Looking at the prices on the TSX and the US exchanges, I believe you are very correct on this. I live 40 miles from the Canadian border and am seeing fewer and fewer British Columbia license plates at the local retailers. A "Boots on the ground" barometer of the effects of the weak Loonie.

  • Reply to

    compare

    by tundra0235 Jan 7, 2015 7:15 AM
    weblvr weblvr Jan 30, 2015 11:49 AM Flag

    Great work and appreciated! Thank you.

  • Reply to

    How will stock price react to guard rail news?

    by rafeek Jan 29, 2015 8:50 PM
    weblvr weblvr Jan 30, 2015 10:56 AM Flag

    Wasn't this a tempest in a teapot to begin with? Guardrails are only 6% of their business as I read somewhere. The market seems to be looking for miniscule excuses to fail these days, however TRN may be reacting in sympathy with the market at large.

  • Reply to

    Thought I Made A Smart.................

    by stormfront2020 Jan 29, 2015 11:24 AM
    weblvr weblvr Jan 30, 2015 10:47 AM Flag

    There is something going on that we are unaware of, folks. While the Loony is down and the dollar is high, it should not cause that much of a spread. Read elsewhere that the school districts are responsible for providing fuel on most contracts, so let's disregard that. There is some sort of systemic malaise here. Note that anybody can write on SA regardless of their credentials; some contributors are good, others not. It takes a while to sort out who is credible in the various sectors.

  • Reply to

    Not profitable

    by megaloceros Jan 22, 2015 1:24 AM
    weblvr weblvr Jan 28, 2015 12:20 PM Flag

    I think the sector is good with great potential. I am making a few bucks here and there on the sector overall, but support your thesis on BMRN's valuation. While the pipeline is there, it's of small diameter with a seemingly limited audience for its' products. Not sure I want to dabble at this price. Thanks to all for your input.

  • Reply to

    Not profitable

    by megaloceros Jan 22, 2015 1:24 AM
    weblvr weblvr Jan 27, 2015 11:20 AM Flag

    Trying to figure this one out. They cater to a very limited population of users. An article in Bizjournal said only 200K users for their products and I would guess at very high cost. While I laud their humanity, I fail to see how they can generate a lot of income with their present profile. It's not like they have an ebola drug with potential for many more users. I would welcome any perspective on this. GLTA

  • Reply to

    Earnings today after close

    by thewzrdaz Jan 21, 2015 12:27 PM
    weblvr weblvr Jan 21, 2015 3:23 PM Flag

    Forget date of record; it is a non-event. You have to own the equity on the morning of the ex-div date. You are safe buying it the day before, but have to own it when the market opens.

  • Reply to

    ---reverse split---

    by cmykroge Jan 15, 2015 8:03 PM
    weblvr weblvr Jan 19, 2015 12:02 PM Flag

    Mint...you seem to have a good handle on this; I don't. Q: present owners of the fund will continue to receive the same dividend with the number of their shares being changed, correct? That appears harmless to me. I do understand the severity of buying new shares at half the divvy with the same being said for DRIP. It seems that a mass exodus from GABUX will further lower their PPS. Your thoughts are welcomed. TIA

  • weblvr weblvr Jan 12, 2015 1:27 PM Flag

    BUT, it's down 7.44% as of 10.25 PST. Couldn't have liked it very much!

  • Reply to

    CAD!

    by lastcavalier_2000 Jan 8, 2015 5:23 PM
    weblvr weblvr Jan 10, 2015 3:41 PM Flag

    You are one of the more astute people on the board and enjoy your postings. It is my understanding that the school districts provide the gas/diesel for the busses by contract. Does my premise on the dollar/loonie spread hold any merit?

  • Reply to

    CAD!

    by lastcavalier_2000 Jan 8, 2015 5:23 PM
    weblvr weblvr Jan 10, 2015 2:56 PM Flag

    Their business is more than just school busses. They also have an oil and gas segment where they invest in oil and gas interests. With that sector in the toilet, I'm not surprised with the modest decline. Most of their bussing is in the US where they get paid with the strong US dollar, but pay their dividends with the weak Canadian Loonie. I guess they make additional money on that dollar/loonie spread, but just guessing. GLTA

  • Reply to

    PPS Drop

    by weblvr Dec 17, 2014 5:40 PM
    weblvr weblvr Jan 6, 2015 4:36 PM Flag

    I read on another board that the school districts are on the hook for fueling the busses, so cost savings for STB should be discounted. Also, most contracts are in the US and paid with the strong US dollar, so this still bewilders me. Buying now under six bucks. GLTA

  • Reply to

    WEBLVR-A Answer for Your Question

    by vpsqdrn Dec 22, 2014 8:38 AM
    weblvr weblvr Dec 23, 2014 6:26 PM Flag

    Wow! See what I started? Actually, your treatise is benefitting MANY board members, and should they not thank you, I will do so on their behalf. So, Thank You! I have learned more from your posts than I have in a number of years of investing and look forward to the next installment, all of which will be saved and printed out for future reference.

  • weblvr weblvr Dec 22, 2014 2:19 PM Flag

    The downside: TRN has its own fleet of railcars that it leases to others. They too will have to be upgraded at significant cost. Dunno the percentage of the fleet that are oil cars, though.

  • Reply to

    WEBLVR-A Answer for Your Question

    by vpsqdrn Dec 22, 2014 8:38 AM
    weblvr weblvr Dec 22, 2014 11:07 AM Flag

    Wow! You should teach at an upper level college somewhere. I sincerely appreciate your time and thoughts invested here. The equation is a lot less foggy now; I DID sell for a tax loss, but will watch the dates on the wash sale rule and buy back on any significant dips. Many thanks and Holiday blessings to you and yours.

DBLTX
11.03-0.02(-0.18%)Feb 26 6:40 PMEST

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