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Sirius XM Holdings Inc. Message Board

weekendcommander 6 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 29, 2016 1:08 PM Member since: Jan 6, 2016
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  • The consensus range for SiriusXm is $0.03-$0.05 for EPS on revenue of $1.18B-$1.20B.
    The mean price target for the shares of Sirius XM is at 4.69

    For Tue Feb 2- Auto sales
    Edmunds Director of Industry Analysis Jessica Caldwell. "Weather factors aside, this was still a pretty good month for car sales. The January sales rate typically falls on the low end of the curve every year, so if historic patterns hold we're off to a healthy start for 2016."

    Jan. 28, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Edmunds, the premier destination for car shopping, forecasts that 1,143,839 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in January for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 17.5 million. The projected sales will be a 30.2 percent decrease from December 2015, but only a 0.5 percent decrease from January 2015.

    "As expected, Winter Storm Jonas limited car sales from reaching their full potential, especially for import brands, which are traditionally popular in East Coast markets," said Jessica Caldwell.

    Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 14.1 million vehicles in January, with fleet transactions accounting for 19.5 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.05 million used cars will be sold in January, for a SAAR of 38.5 million (compared to 2.6 million – or a SAAR of 37.9 million – used car sales in December).

  • SiriusXM Canada Reports Record Adjusted EBITDA For First Quarter Fiscal 2016

    TORONTO , Jan. 13, 2016 /CNW/ - Sirius XM Canada Holdings Inc. ("SiriusXM Canada" or the "Company") (XSR.TO), parent of Sirius XM Canada Inc., today released unaudited financial results for its fiscal 2016 first quarter ("Q1 FY2016") ended November 30, 2015 prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). A summary of IFRS financial results for Q1 FY2016 is attached. All results are reported in Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated.

    "With revenue growth, record Adjusted EBITDA and self-pay subscribers at an all-time high, fiscal 2016 is off to a strong start," said Mark Redmond , President and CEO, SiriusXM Canada. "We added close to 14,000 net self-pay subscribers in the quarter as we continue to drive net self-pay annual subscriber growth. We also delivered year-over-year improvements in self-pay ARPU and impressive self-pay churn of 1.93%. At more than 2.7 million total subscribers, we are one of the largest media subscription businesses in Canada . We continue to bring unmatched content to people across the country, as recently highlighted by Howard Stern's contract renewal. Our addressable market, combined with our strong OEM relationships, continue to grow and we look forward to further penetrating both the new and used vehicle segments. We remain intensely focused on further enhancing our subscribers' listening experience to continue delivering strong subscriber, revenue, Adjusted EBITDA and cash flow growth."

    "We delivered strong revenue and Adjusted EBITDA growth in the quarter," said Jason Redman , Chief Financial Officer. "Adjusted EBITDA margins remain strong despite a one-time 16% increase in copyright fees. They also improved sequentially, primarily due to the seasonality of our CCD payments, the majority of which we recognize in Q4. We will continue to work towards further strengthening our financial results through the remainder of fiscal 2016 by optimizing the balance between expanding our subscriber base and improving self-pay ARPU, while also carefully managing investments in the business to support our long-term growth."
    Q1 FY2016 Results Financial Review

    For Q1 FY2016, revenue was $83.5 million , up $4.5 million , or 5.7%, from $79.0 million in Q1 FY2015. The year-over-year improvement reflects growth in the Company's self-paying subscriber base and an increase in Self-Pay ARPU. Q1 FY2016 Self-Pay ARPU was $12.57 , up 1.5% from $12.38 in Q1 FY2015 driven by the Company's implementation of its increased Music Royalty and Regulatory Fee (MRF) on renewing subscribers.

    Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 FY2016, increased $0.6 million , or 2.7%, to $23.5 million from $22.9 million in Q1 FY2015. The year-over-year increase was a result of revenue growth partly offset by an increase in the Company's copyright fees and higher royalties related to increased revenues.

    The Company recorded net income of $10.1 million in Q1 FY2016, up $2.1 million , or 25.6%, compared to net income of $8.0 million in Q1 FY2015 as a result of better operational performance and lower depreciation and amortization charges.

    SAC for Q1 FY2016 was $40 , up from $39 in Q1 FY2015 as a result of, among other things, increased purchases in the Aftermarket segment and higher exchange rates, partly offset by lower average OEM subsidies.

    In Q1 FY2016, the Company generated $17.2 million in cash from operating activities, marginally lower by $0.1 million , or 0.8%, from $17.3 million in cash from operating activities in Q1 FY2015. The Company generated free cash flow of $10.2 million in Q1 FY2016, lower by $3.5 million , or 25.2%, from $13.7 million in Q1 FY2015 as a result of a $3.3 million increase in capital expenditures related to our dual-band repeater network and other intangibles.

    As at November 30, 2015, the Company had total cash and cash equivalents of $36.4 million compared to $26.1 million as at August 31, 2015 . The increase is primarily due to cash flow from operating activities of $17.2 million in Q1 FY2016 offset by capital expenditures of $7.0 million .

  • Reply to

    Options Expiration Volatility

    by weekendcommander Jan 13, 2016 1:00 PM
    weekendcommander weekendcommander Jan 13, 2016 7:50 PM Flag

    Too much selling at the bid today.

  • weekendcommander by weekendcommander Jan 13, 2016 1:00 PM Flag

    Jan 15 last chg vol open int.
    2.5 Call 1.25 -0.04 140 1,187
    3.0 Call 0.76 -0.04 106 19,792
    3.5 Call 0.25 -0.04 2,535 22,517
    4.0 Call 0.01 0.00 0 116,311

    Why do options sometimes trade below their intrinsic value? It's usually because the market makers are having difficulty laying off their risk. Basically, it comes down to the law of supply and demand. There are more sellers than buyers. On (or near) expiration day, more traders may want to sell their options than buy them. The market maker is willing to buy, of course, but he or she will charge as big a premium as possible for providing that service.

    The market makers are buying the call and then selling the stock. However, there may not be enough volume or interest to bring prices into equilibrium. If market makers buy the option and the stock continues to fall, by the time they short the stock they may be in for a loss. As a result, they charge a premium to cover their risk while awaiting executions.

    Arbitrageurs and retail investors can also join in and buy the call and sell the stock, but if they do not already have an existing position, they have to purchase the option at the ask price and sell the stock at the bid. Even with the wider spreads common with deep in-the-money options, this leaves little or no room for error.

  • weekendcommander weekendcommander Jan 11, 2016 3:37 PM Flag

    But let's be honest here. Does anyone who follows Sirius XM closely expect anything different?
    Stephen Faulkner
    Jan. 6, 2016

    The past several years have seen the company issue guidance significantly below the previous year's accomplishments. The year rolls on, the company ups guidance a few times, and then comes in with an end-of-year beat.

    So why is it that each year the company does this, it seems people are scratching their heads and questioning the future of the company?

    Looking back at press releases at the beginning of each year, barring the anomaly in 2013 due to a shift in how new subscribers were counted at a major auto manufacturer, one can see that the company consistently under-promises and over-delivers by a significant margin. This margin has increased since the 2013 anomaly due to management's desire to avoid a similar reaction as was witnessed with 2013's Q3 report.

    Although all investors should be forward looking, it is important for investors to understand how to look forward despite stated guidance from a company which obviously guides in a conservative fashion.

    Is it reasonable to assume that Sirius XM will suffer a decrease in net subscriber additions of nearly 40% from 2015 to 2016? The company has guided that way, guiding to 1.4 million down from 2.3 million. But unless one believes that customer churn will kick up, that new car sales will fall precipitously, or that used cars will no longer provide a stream of new subscribers, then an investor can reasonably assume the guidance is likely grossly conservative.

    What is more likely is that new auto sales will remain relatively the same or shift slightly down or up, churn will remain similar to what it has in the past or get slightly better, and that used cars will provide more exposure for the company as the fleet of used cars increases in penetration percentage each and every year.

    That should translate into reasonably similar gains in subscribers year over year when measured next January. I would expect that we will be here yet again watching comments by those who are scratching their head as if the company is doing something new by issuing conservative guidance to start the year.

    Put quite simply, conservative guidance is the name of the game with Sirius XM to start each and every year. Those who look past it should not be surprised when the company beats this guidance and raises it multiple times as the year goes on. Those who obsess over this conservative guidance may cause themselves to miss out on opportunity, or even worse, find themselves on the wrong end of a longer-term short bet.

  • "With subscriber guidance we like to beat and raise."

    "Continued growth for another 10 years before flat."

    David Frear, Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Citi 2016 Internet, Media and Telecommunications Conference in Las Vegas, on Wednesday, January 6.

3.46+0.08(+2.37%)Feb 12 4:00 PMEST