Nokia Corporation Message Board
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Great post, thanks for sharing. It is hard to figure out exactly what the deal is though. But one point I remembered was that the fee Nokia will be paying to Microsoft depends on the amount of smartphones nokia will sell, but there is a minimal annual fee. So Nokia better sell more phones to reduce that licensing cost, and I guess that minimal amount must be quite large considering how ambitious/desperate microsoft is.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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It is still a mystery what "2M" stands for, but based on the report, it was a fact that Nokia China team had a celebration party. I do not understand why nobody talked about that. They HAD A CELEBRATION PARTY. To me, that was good enough since they must have achieved something significant or unexpectedly.
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Nokia celebrates 2 million Nokia Lumia 920T sales in China
by stockhitter •Mar 6, 2013 5:35 AMVilivonvuu,
when did his weibo come out? Was it yesterday? ThanksSentiment: Strong Buy
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Nokia celebrates 2 million Nokia Lumia 920T sales in China
by stockhitter •Mar 6, 2013 5:35 AMI checked the original resource Winp.cn, it wrote in BOLD this number includes all WP8 activated. Later on it says that it also includes small amount WP7
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Adduplex measures activated phones in consumers' hands.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Tom,
I kind of agree with that the result is too good to be true, so I want to share with all of you. Hopefully someone can point some errors I might used as you did.
In terms 76% Nokia market share, my understanding was that among all the WP globally, 76% was Lumia phones by the end of Q4 2012, because adduplex can only measure all the phones in the market, it can not distinguish when the phone started to use.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Scott,
Thank you for the nice encouragement. I am kind of new to this board, and I am amazed how much junk posts here.
I totally agree with you that there might be some attrition in MP7 in the last two months. Fortunately, Adduplex also provided the market share from Lumia 900 and 710 over time. Based on all the data, it does not seem there was significant amount of WP7 attrition.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Scott,
As stated in 1), by Q4 2012, WP market size was about 2.4M, out of which 1 M was WP8 and 1.4m was WP7 since WP8 to WP7 ratio was 41:59 as stated in 3). If no WP7 in last two months, there should be still about 1.4m WP7. To get WP8 to WP7 ratio to be 61:39, WP8 need to be 2.2m, so 1.2m WP8 sale in last two months. If there was some WP7 sale, this number would be bigger.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Thanks Jb. 10m is global sale. In US, the sale so far in Q1 is about 1m as calculated in 3).
The idea was that even though us is selling more lumias, the market share is dropping, means global WP is selling faster. -
11.3% is the market share, based on adduplex recent data.
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14.4m was the total WP shipped by Q4 2012, not just In Q4.
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in 3) I meant to assume there was no WP7 sales in the last two months. If there were any WP7 sales, the number will come out bigger. But I guess there should have very few WP7 sales in US.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Let me reveal the sales of Lumia based adduplex data step by step:
1) Q4 Lumia sales in US was 0.7M. And based on Adduplex data, Lumia consisted about 29% total WP
So by Q4, 2012, total WP market size in US should be around 2.4M.
2) By Q4, 2012, Nokia shipped about 14.4M lumias, and has about 76% market share, so total WP market size should be around 19M.
3) In US market, by the end of Q4, 2012, 41% WP8 vs 59% WP7. The newest data revealed that by march 1, 2013, 61% WP8 vs 39% WP7. Assume there was No WP7 in the last two months, it is easy to find out that there was about 1.2M WP8 sales in the last two months, out of which Nokia commands about 1.0M.
4) So by march 1, 2013, US WP market size should be around 3.6M. The newest data also revealed that US WP market is 11.3% total market, so total WP market size should be around 32M.
5) Therefore, WP sales in last two months were about 32-19=13M! Nokia got 78% out of it, so Nokia should have sold 10M WP!
Please comment if my calculation makes sense or not to you.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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There are so many discussions and speculations about how many sales of Lumia in 1Q, here is what I think: there is no question that supply can not meet the demand, especially for 920. So to me the question becomes how many lumia Nokia can produce? I do not know how many plants Nokia has globally capable of manufacturing Lumia, I do know that the largest plant is located in Beijing China. There was a report in Chinese citing one Nokia employee in that plant saying that Beijing plant can produce 20k 920, 20k 820, and 25k 620 daily, so it is about 2m a month and about 6m in 1Q. This number is conservative since the report was in last December, it is possible that they already increased the production. There are other lumia phones not counted here. One thing I found interesting was that lumia 900 started to sell more recently. In some Chinese website, 900 is the best seller among all lumia phones. In taobao, 820 is best seller with over 1k per week, followed by 900 about 1k per week, 920 is the third with about 850 per week. Tmall is another site listing exact selling number, 900 is selling well too. Anyway, I think it is safe to throw another 2m there if those sales number listed in website can truely reflect the real situation.
Now the question is: how much Nokia can produce in other plants? If you have any insights on that, please reply this post to share. 4m?
So I think Nokia will surely sell over 10m lumias in 1Q.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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It might be some disappointment with some Nokia investors/fans that Nokia did not come out some more flagships today, instead it will roll out some lower end WP phones. But I really like this strategy. To think about it, 920 is selling out everywhere, why would it bother to get another better flagship, then 920 will have to be discounted? I visited several forum today, and found out that many fans who were waiting for new flagships finally decided to buy 920 since they know there would be no new flagship in the near future. So it is really not necessary to have a better flagship than 920, which is already very competitive in the market. Lower end market is another story. With so many price points, Nokia is making sure that everyone who is interested in WP will be able to afford one, this in long term will help the spread of WP.
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vlad,
Your analysis makes sense to me. One thing I want to add on is that 820 might be selling much better than you think. If you check Chinese Tmall website, you will find out that 820 is selling better than 920. 820 is smaller than 920, so the former is more preferred by ladies.