This recommendation from Wireline Competition Bureau was not a surprise. But no one like uncertainty and FCC staff won't put public at risk in an unprepared way for such a switch. On the other hand, they also need to think how to keep the competition. Without NSR, there will be no competition in this field. We will see what NSR's role is once FCC discloses its plan.
It is highly suspicious for recent drop from ~$28.3 to ~$24.6. There was no bad news, earning release passed expectation and management laid out reasonable plans for co growth and working strategies on retaining NPAC, analysts' positive reactions. I also checked all FCC filings and don't see the good reason for FCC to award the contract to Telcordia. All these pointed to a purposed price manipulation. For what? I believe this is the typical scenario before acquisition. I do agree to buy and hold shares.
NSR may be still manipulated for some days but that won't be too long. FCC may at any time have a decision which logically will favor NSR. You make your own decision for your investment. Based on reward vs risk ($24 lowest or $48 high), I will hold this stock until the dust settles.
There isn't any news. In fact at list one analyst raised target price from $25 to $28 and earning estimates are all lifted for 2015 and 2016. The only thing I can think of is the acquisition rumor last year. The acquisition can't happen before the NPAC duct settles but PE firm will benefit from manipulating price. Patience is needed...if the loss of contract (50% of NSR's revenue) has been baked in, should the price double if NSR is able to keep the contract?
Shorts just have less and less power to manipulate NSR. In fact they need a strategy to exit due to the huge amount (21m, or 40% of float) shares shorted. They may be forced to cover if a smart/big buyer steps in. Lisa and Paul were pretty calm and wise during CC.
Current estimate for 2015 is $3.85/share which is quite lower than $4.20/share for 2014. Management aligned resources last year aiming at reducing costs and NSR will recognize new revenue starting 1st quarter from acquisition in 2014. No other things have been changed and NSR keep collecting revenue from NPAC so that the 2015 guideline should be expected to be positive one. We will get updates on next Tuesday. Keep your fingers crossed!
just 5 months left before NPAC contract expires...I believe the strategies used by NSR have been carrying on well. The evidences NSR have provided are convincible. FCC cannot take such a risk especially when some high profile people came out talking the security issues. I think at this moment the best way for FCC to handle this issue is to delay, delay and delay... the Telcordia recommendation will be invalidated automatically.