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Breitburn Energy Partners LP Message Board

werawc 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 1, 2016 8:57 PM Member since: Nov 15, 2001
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  • Reply to

    There might not be blood.

    by bearofbleecker Jan 29, 2016 8:29 PM
    werawc werawc Feb 1, 2016 8:57 PM Flag

    The refinery is a 20,000 barrel per day capacity refinery, but I don't know what number they are running at. They only own 50% of it too remember, so you are right it is not a big mover of the needle.

  • Reply to

    a little more downside and will trading at cash

    by jtraphael Jan 13, 2016 12:43 PM
    werawc werawc Jan 31, 2016 9:52 AM Flag

    I am long too, and think the stock is undervalued. But just because they had $40 million in cash vs about 50 million fully diluted shares outstanding, or close to $.80 per share, we have to remember that they are burning through the cash to do the trials. By the end of 2016 I expect them to have very little cash, but have or nearly have final approval, and a big league marketing partner (like Baxter), or be bought out. Best of luck to us all.

  • Yes oil prices, their raw feedstock, are lower, so they benefit from that, but crack spreads have narrowed in the last quarter about 25%, hurting margins in the refined fuels division. But since they hedge, some margin narrowing is mitigated. The Dakota-Prairie diesel refinery may not be making any money, it wasn't last quarter, and the oil/energy fluids division most likely is still bleeding red ink. So with all these moving parts, the jury on earnings is out. I do not expect an awful earnings report, nor a great one, just mediocre. What will make or break 2016 is the 3 recently completed expansion/growth projects that could add $100 million to EBITDA. If they do, that is great, but remember that Dakota-Prairie was suppose to throw off high teens margins, and it is not even close. The turnover in CEO's is unsettling, I don't know what it means.

  • Reply to

    Dividend is COMING BACK - DEAL VOTED DOWN???

    by adelfig Nov 27, 2015 12:22 PM
    werawc werawc Nov 27, 2015 12:51 PM Flag

    I have a different opinion. With MPLX at $39 now, if the deal goes through, MWE is worth about $10 more than $39 (1.09 x $39, plus $6.20). Of course we do not know if MPLX will still be at $39 after the outcome is announced, but with MWE trading around $45, it is possible it rallies even more, maybe closer to the $9 to $10 premium. So it could go to $48 or $49. But if MPLX drops after the outcome of the vote is announced, if it is approved, then $48 or $49 is not going to happen. The arbs will dictate the prices of each right before, and after, as they unwind their bets. The jury is out still !!!

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