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Advent Software, Inc. Message Board

west_coast_movershaker 1 post  |  Last Activity: May 16, 2014 12:31 PM Member since: Mar 17, 2005
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  • west_coast_movershaker by west_coast_movershaker May 16, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    110MM- cash in the bank
    25MM- cash guaranteed to be coming from arbaclofen placarbil deal
    20MM- probability of receiving another 120MM plus ongoing royalties from arbaclofen placarbil deal(note the extreme conservative probability assumed)
    20MM Horizant- assumes it is a complete dog and never grows(which is not the case +15 sequentially last qtr)
    60MM assigned to their Psoriasis/MS drug (BIIB fetches 4-5 billion in mrket cap on the drug XNPT will be competing with)

    Have no idea what the probabilities the analysts are using but they have to be close to the laughably low probabilities I am assigning. Bump up any of the probabiltities by even small %'s yields ever increasing valuation. Quite amazing. Unbelievable value play. Would love to know what I'm missing. Yes, there is cash burn. I guess the market is focused on this.

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