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Verizon Communications Inc. Message Board

westonct45 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 19, 2015 11:44 AM Member since: Feb 13, 2003
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  • The spot market continues very strong and the Baltic has over the last 9 days added another $10 and now stands at $104. This translates to daily TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) of about $100,000 per day. The near term outlook is positive while the long-term outlook is cloudy due to the high number of newbuildings entering the market over the next couple of years. A big chunk of those are of course LPG's.

  • Reply to

    Gas vs oil

    by supershuttle Feb 15, 2015 2:27 PM
    westonct45 westonct45 Feb 18, 2015 9:51 AM Flag

    In Europe a lot of the gas prices are indexed to the oil price. This is different to the US where the pricing of one to a high degree is independent of the other.

  • Reply to

    ZACKS on GASS

    by xnb1978 Feb 10, 2015 11:29 AM
    westonct45 westonct45 Feb 17, 2015 10:21 AM Flag

    I found the article and there is indeed a section about GASS further down that the post did not show:

    "StealthGas, Inc. (GASS-Free Report) and its subsidiaries offer transportation services to producers and users of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) across the world. StealthGas also transports crude oil as well as a variety of petroleum products such as butane. It is also a carrier of edible oils and chemicals."

    Pls note that the analyst does not seem to know much about the subject matter as he uses butane as an example of a petroleum product. Butane, along with propane, is a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

    To get some perspective it should be noted that while Stealth has 40+ gas carriers, the oil tanker fleet numbers 5. The tankers are not even mentioned in the company profile on their website. To me it has always been a mystery why the Vafias family cluttered the company's fleet of gas carriers by adding oil tankers to the mix.

  • Reply to

    ZACKS on GASS

    by xnb1978 Feb 10, 2015 11:29 AM
    westonct45 westonct45 Feb 12, 2015 5:27 PM Flag

    The header says "ZACKS on GASS". In the following article there is not one word about GASS. What am I missing?

    It's impossible to make a generalization like Zack does in their headline "Shipping Set for Good Year". What shipping? Containers, tank, bulk, chemicals, gas? Each has their own distinctive traits and they don't move in tandem.

    A good case in point is gas shipping where GASS is operating - not even here in a rather insignificant niche of the big shipping picture can you generalize. Right now the VLGC's (Avance, Dorian/LPG, BW) is very strong, to the point that I'm not aware of any other shipping sector that is doing better. LGC's (BW, Solvang, Neu), MGC's (Exmar, Eletson, Prime) and Handys (NVGS, Ultragas) are also enjoying an enviable market. The smaller gas vessels is having a harder time but are still making good money. The least attractive segment is where GASS is, small pressure vessels. It is still OK and GASS is making money though charter hire has been steadily deteriorating over the last 12 months.

  • Reply to

    corvette

    by barrytmiller2000 Feb 10, 2015 12:20 PM
    westonct45 westonct45 Feb 10, 2015 6:44 PM Flag

    That's a very conservative number. Even with Baltic in the mid to high 80's pmt most calculate a TCE of about $80,000. i would also expect that LPG's vessels will calculate better if management's mantra reg ECO has any validity.

  • Reply to

    corvette

    by barrytmiller2000 Feb 10, 2015 12:20 PM
    westonct45 westonct45 Feb 10, 2015 3:19 PM Flag

    This type of info is circulated in 'the market'. The market in this case consists of the owners of the vessels, the charterers (i.e the buyers of the transportation services) and the brokers (the link between the two). Tradewinds (Oslo shipping rag) publish some rates once a week and some of the bigger shipbrokers have the info in their weekly reports. As this is a very small and illiquid market very few on the outside have any interest in this info so there is no incentive to create anything more elaborate. To give you an idea how insignificant LPG is, Bloomberg neither has propane nor butane price on their Energy & Oil Price webpage.

  • Reply to

    corvette

    by barrytmiller2000 Feb 10, 2015 12:20 PM
    westonct45 westonct45 Feb 10, 2015 1:26 PM Flag

    She is trading in the spot market and was chartered to the Indians for a spot voyage Saudi / India at a very healthy rate. In other words LPG was able to take advantage of the current strong market.

    By the way the correct term in shipping is 'charter'. The word 'lease' comes with a lot of negative connotations in shipping.

  • Reply to

    Where's The Logic

    by westonct45 Feb 9, 2015 12:55 PM
    westonct45 westonct45 Feb 10, 2015 11:59 AM Flag

    Today's Baltic LPG number was up almost 5% from yesterday, going above $94 per metric ton. To give this some perspective, a year ago the figure was appr. half of what it is today. While this does not change the long-term out-look, it is very bullish for the short term outlook allowing owners with vessels currently in the spot market to continue to make a very healthy return.

  • westonct45 by westonct45 Feb 9, 2015 11:35 PM Flag

    for screwing up my wife's plans by cancelling all Monday flights out La Guardia already on SATURDAY, way before it was known what the actual weather would be. Despite the media hysteria in the Tristate area over the last days, nothing but nothing happened today. It's one thing if media goes berserk, totally another when an airline does not keep it's cool and make drastic decisions before they have to. And not reversing it when it becomes obvious what's happening. As comparison my daughter leaving Newark for Hawaii on United this morning left on time. Not a hitch... By the way, JBLU was among the minority among airlines cancelling flights out of LGA today.

  • westonct45 by westonct45 Feb 9, 2015 3:17 PM Flag

    for screwing up my travel plans by cancelling all Monday flights out La Guardia already on SATURDAY, way before it was known what the actual weather would be. Despite the media hysteria in the Tristate area over the last days, nothing but nothing happened today. But it's one thing if media goes berserk, totally another when an airline does not keep it's cool and drastic decisions until they have to. As comparison my daughter leaving Newark for Hawaii on United this morning left on time. Not a hitch... By the way, BLUE was among the minority among airlines cancelling flights out of LGA today.

  • westonct45 by westonct45 Feb 9, 2015 12:55 PM Flag

    So far today LPG is down 3.0% hanging around $11.40. That after today's Baltic LPG assessment added another $2 or about 2.3% to Friday's number, ending just short of $90.

    If you look at the picture from the start of the year the figures are even more remarkable - The Baltic has moved up 50% from about $60, while the stock price has slipped about 18% from $13.89 on Dec 31.

    So where's the logic? Even those subscribing to the flawed theory that any stock related to the energy sector must trade in tandem to crude oil is getting it wrong - crude (WTI) is also up about 3% today.

  • Reply to

    rufus

    by aimme220 Jan 14, 2015 11:14 PM
    westonct45 westonct45 Jan 16, 2015 2:11 PM Flag

    In the long run more petro-chemical gases will be moving in increasing quantities. But right now both the LPG and the pet-chem gas markets are very slow with hardly any spot business. Product prices are about the same everywhere, not leaving enough margin for freight - the product stays where it is.

  • Reply to

    What's the rational?

    by westonct45 Dec 15, 2014 12:20 PM
    westonct45 westonct45 Dec 16, 2014 10:49 AM Flag

    Nothing announced or even rumored reg their 3 uncommitted ethane carriers. In general there has been a lot of activity around further US ethane export deals, but one can assume with current turmoil in energy pricing the process will take substantially longer. In the end I believe there will be additional deals, question is if the product will move to Europe (good for NVGS) or Asia (NVGS vessels too small).

    The market will get tougher, but how tough is impossible to predict this far in advance. But very little has changed on the vessel supply side since NVGS traded in the low 30's. What has changed is that energy prices have fallen, which to me is a positive. Lower prices = higher demand = more transportation needed.

  • westonct45 by westonct45 Dec 15, 2014 12:20 PM Flag

    The NVGS market cap has been cut in half in 3 months, and is off 20% from the IPO a year ago. Isn't the selling a bit over done? The company is still making a lot of money and is likely to have another good year in 2015. Subsequently their own and other N/B's in their segment will slowly but surely flood the market and make life more difficult. But that that has been known since well before the selling started.

    The mantra that drove the stock until September was that production is going to increase and if the product is produced it will have to move to the markets. Has that scenario changed? To the contrary - lower prices of LPG and other gases should help this process, not stop it. Pls keep in mind that rates can come down quite a lot from current levels and still allow NVGS to make a profit.

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