// 10.34 per share....! //
That in itself is pretty good. If you work it out using the numbers yesterday from the company it's $12.43 (+/- 51 cents) for 2015.
And that is using forward curve fuel, and current analysts revenue estimates. So, if fuel stays where it currently is, earnings will be higher, and as they fill the empty seats on the higher capacity, new aircraft that will go right to the bottom line.
I would expect it to be within a year. He made that comment out of the blue. Caught me by surprise in that it was something he certainly didn't have to comment on. Just my feeling, and see you thought the same thing.
boom ... hedgies can do that ... maybe that is why most only returned 1-2%. And I imagine some got slammed with oil and currency ... even the airline hedge couldn't save them since it really hadn't been reflected in airline prices yet. Let them get out ... for whatever reason.
Markus and Carruthers ... my post with a question to you disappeared, I think.
If company A has a negative 3% PRASM and an increase in ASMs of 3%, and company B has flat PRASM and flat ASMs, which company has a year over year change in revenue, all other things equal?
// Mr Parker sounded positive but he's been at the head of the airlines since it was $12 & he should sound positive. //
Well, he's been doing CC's for quite awhile, and there are times when he isn't positive ... he was positive today.
boomagency .... if oil goes to $55, AAL's earnings for the year will be around $11.50/share ... if oil goes to $65 it will be $10.41, which is higher than current estimates for the year.
But thought you didn't care about earnings, oil or fundamental stuff.
carruthers ... I think you are taking PRASM guidance out of context ... but then again news headlines do it too ... I posed a question to markus in a post about 30 minutes ago (around 2:14 cst). How would you answer it?
I've been listening to Parker and crew at CC's for a while, and I felt they were very positive. Iahphx, if you listened, what did you think of the tone of the CC?
Carruthers ... you missed my point. I think there are investors that want in ... why not wait until those that just used airlines as an oil hedge to slow their selling ... buy after the hedge sellers take the price down.
// Face it, from here on if you own AAL you are rooting hard against oil. //
markus, now you are diverging from what I thought you said. That these are just those that used airlines to hedge against oil that are selling. When that dries up, those wanting the airlines will come in ... actually there is a lot of buying at these lower levels. Guess you didn't mean that ... ok, then I'm suggesting it.
// Maybe we all are not seeing something //
I think markus hit on it ... just those selling it that bought AAL only as a hedge against oil and not interested in the company per se.
unc ... even easier ... just pull yahoo analysts' revenue estimates of $10.2. Spent 5 minutes using guidance for mainline and regional projected ASMs times PRASM in cents, plus cargo etc. I got $10.22. The $10.22 number gives $2.36/share (+/- 27cents for Q1 to account for the best and worst case of range). (lost some ASMs over the last couple of days ... )
I do make math errors sometimes ... my sixth calculus course didn't even have numbers in it ... well, page numbers.
I have to be careful responding too quickly with you, iah ... I can put my foot in my mouth. What is it 60/40 domestic/ intl? I imagine there are more dollar bookings and the other currency is many times used in-country ... but that is cost, so ... have to think about it.
I'll go back and re-listen to what was said in the CC about the currency impact when I get a chance.