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US Airways Group, Inc. Message Board

wgrsh 228 posts  |  Last Activity: May 1, 2015 12:12 PM Member since: May 11, 2005
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  • Reply to

    one has to wait for the market foolishness to stop

    by iahphx Apr 30, 2015 3:18 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh May 1, 2015 12:12 PM Flag

    Plenty of oil cav ... Iraq is pumping and plans to double over the years ... Iran and Libya in the wings. I still say we could get a switch to nat gas for over the road trucks ... over time ... another 2M per day savings. And speaking of that, the Saudis are not only worried about shale, but also the impact of alternative energy in the future ... they don't want to make that too attractive. But we all know the price of oil has its own crazy nature.

  • Reply to

    Weekly Option expiration

    by unclespeaking Apr 30, 2015 9:58 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh May 1, 2015 11:46 AM Flag

    As of right now it's not paying attention to weekly options ... fine with me.

  • Reply to

    Weekly Option expiration

    by unclespeaking Apr 30, 2015 9:58 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh May 1, 2015 10:36 AM Flag

    What do you think unc ... a closing close to $49?

  • Reply to

    Banks Day

    by ochsnerbier Apr 29, 2015 12:25 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 30, 2015 5:04 PM Flag

    You know what they say about stocks, or sectors, that show relative strength in a down market ... bodes well for the future ... you want to be in them when the market turns.

  • Reply to

    OPEC Output

    by alidawawala Apr 30, 2015 7:29 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 30, 2015 12:22 PM Flag

    iahphx ... Reform in the oil market or financial reforms? I still say there are reforms coming from the CFTC (and through Basel III) regarding commodities, unless they cave.

    But even with the currency correlation, I think one corner the Fed was in was the dollar strength if they raised rates. A little improvement in Europe may give the Fed some of the room they need.

    OT: If I were doing it, I'd go with an 1/8 of a point (.25 is sort of massive with interest rates so low ... it's ok, when interest rate were 2-4%). So, if data keeps improving, do an intra meeting move of an 1/8 when everyone is grilling in July or August. It's not that much and they can always do another one. That'll add some downward pressure on oil.

  • Reply to

    Tomorrow..Friday in the low 47s high 46s

    by tradesairlines Apr 30, 2015 10:17 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 30, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    // next week low 46s going to $44, ...//

    If it goes to low 46s, technically, I'd wait until $39-40 especially if other airlines breakdown from their ranges. But $39-40 would be a ridiculously low price (not that $46 isn't), so technicals may not matter.

  • Reply to

    That's the Spirit ...

    by wgrsh Apr 29, 2015 1:53 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 30, 2015 10:58 AM Flag

    unc ... got to keep an eye on them, but it is the law of small numbers right now.

    I still think a lot of what is going on is just normal plans that ended up not matching anticipated conditions ... and conditions did change rapidly. Things will be managed.

  • Reply to

    That's the Spirit ...

    by wgrsh Apr 29, 2015 1:53 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 29, 2015 9:10 PM Flag

    cav ... yes, it looks like your comparison is apples to apples. SAVE might be given more credit for growth (in the PE) since it is smaller and growing ... but in my mind it doesn't justify the difference. And I'm sure they'll be people watching this quarter ... especially after today.

  • Reply to

    That's the Spirit ...

    by wgrsh Apr 29, 2015 1:53 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 29, 2015 9:01 PM Flag

    // Spirit Airlines Inc said on Wednesday that it expects unit revenue to plummet this quarter relative to last year's strong performance ...//

    cav ... yes, and yoy difficult Q2 prasm comps were mentioned by other airlines ... and I don't know about Spirit, but others (at least AAL) mentioned the comps get somewhat easier in the second half.

    The margins ... I'd have to look at Spirit's accounting to see what they include and not include in operating margin.

    Got a LUV question ... did LUV account for AirTran separately for awhile (including ASMs) and when did they combine stats? By the way, LUV peeked under its trading range today ... well, many did or got close, but LUV closed just below it ... needs to get up.

  • Reply to

    There're only so many ways to play the game

    by unclespeaking Apr 29, 2015 3:32 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 29, 2015 4:05 PM Flag

    "... sleeping giant ... "

  • Somebody must be "competing" with Spirit ... not sure what happened. If all the others are bigger, it's probably not a good idea to upset them ... not sure if that is it.

    They had a problem a couple of quarters ago ... not sure if this is the same problem and they just covered it up for the intervening quarter.

  • Reply to

    Problem I have with 2016 estimates ...

    by wgrsh Apr 28, 2015 11:24 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 28, 2015 1:25 PM Flag

    cav ... I agree ... given the way AAL characterized the situation, I think the industry will work through that issue.

  • Reply to

    Problem I have with 2016 estimates ...

    by wgrsh Apr 28, 2015 11:24 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 28, 2015 1:13 PM Flag

    // As far as reporting "after-tax" on GAAP, like DAL does, it's better and easier for people to understand //

    DAL didn't have a choice ... they had to report after tax even though not paying tax. Most here understand that. LCC had to do it for a number of years even though they paid no taxes ... and everyone has to file GAAP, and there are GAAP rules on how to handle NOLs and whether that includes reporting after tax or pre-tax.

  • Reply to

    Problem I have with 2016 estimates ...

    by wgrsh Apr 28, 2015 11:24 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 28, 2015 12:27 PM Flag

    // The value of free information ... //

    The info ... 2016 estimates ... can be figured out by all and compared. So, what is the value of the analysts saying it will be between $4 and $11? 2016 estimates could be confusing if apples are being mixed with oranges.

  • Reply to

    Problem I have with 2016 estimates ...

    by wgrsh Apr 28, 2015 11:24 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 28, 2015 12:02 PM Flag

    Different segments of Wall Street investors are attracted to different investments ... growth, value, etc.

    If oil settles out around $75, some synergies come in and the industry gets a grip on revenues, I'll take the projection of earnings, as well as value.

    AAL characterized the current prasm weakness more as 2015 plans encountering some turbulence and airlines will adjust. Currency and world economies created some initial clouds coming into 2015 ... it has for most industries. The industry will tweak its way through things. 2015 initial plans weren't right for conditions.

    AAL said Europe was strong ... it was weak going into Q1. AAL said at the end of January 4 countries in South America were weak ... in the CC it was only Brazil and VZ.

  • There are 17 analysts chiming in and I certainly haven't read the assumptions on their estimates. I don't think there would be a mixture of pre-tax earnings and after tax earnings, but maybe there is. AAL said in their CC that they might consider reversing their NOLs in 2016 and start reporting after tax earnings even though it would be non cash ... if I can paraphrase AAL. Maybe some analysts are putting out estimates with that taken into account using all after tax eps's. If not, some of the low 2016 estimates sucking down the average, if not after tax, are overly negative in my opinion ... essentially assuming revenue deterioration, high oil and no synergies. I just don't think that perfect storm is going to happen.

  • wgrsh wgrsh Apr 28, 2015 10:51 AM Flag

    // See, these guys never actually post their trade before //

    Who cares about your, or anybodies', trades? I would think people only care about their own. People can make up anything they want about their trades/investments on a message board ... it should be considered just noise. I think people use message boards to get fundamental and technical information.

  • Reply to

    Apple Day...

    by unclespeaking Apr 27, 2015 10:07 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 27, 2015 5:02 PM Flag

    Hopefully (guess I should have a conviction), AAPL will put the market in a good mood tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    Apple Day...

    by unclespeaking Apr 27, 2015 10:07 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 27, 2015 3:37 PM Flag

    unc ... AAPL usually comes through ... and why not? I don't like the chart and today's gap and pullback after touching the old high (double top?). That said AAPL is a great company ... I can't remember, were the new phones selling for the full quarter?

  • Reply to

    AAL New Price Target

    by mechjr Apr 27, 2015 11:47 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 27, 2015 2:48 PM Flag

    13 is the after tax PE target ... I'm not saying it trades at that, but if they use 8.5 for pre-tax (and some have come out and said that), 13 would be the same as 8.5 pre-tax knocking off 35%. Targets aren't going to change just because AAL starts to report after tax eps.

    The main thing that varies between analysts in setting targets is their view of future eps, not generally the PE.