I have to be careful responding too quickly with you, iah ... I can put my foot in my mouth. What is it 60/40 domestic/ intl? I imagine there are more dollar bookings and the other currency is many times used in-country ... but that is cost, so ... have to think about it.
I'll go back and re-listen to what was said in the CC about the currency impact when I get a chance.
I agree, cav that they did say that about some markets, but AAL also indicated strength in corporate accounts and other offsetting areas of strength. Without the increase ASM's impact on PRASM, AAL would be close to flat PRASM as well just like the others. You have to remember that these are all yoy percentages. UAL if I remember correctly had a bad Q1 last year ... their comps were easier ... easier to be flat PRASM, but that doesn't need to imply that AAL is doing worse than they are now.
I think the analyst well know what is going on ... as for today, with so many different possibilities as to why any stock is down, I'm not going to guess.
For 2015, using new cost guidance and current analysts' revenue estimates give a 2015 eps of $12.43/share.
Cursed with a forward PE that has a 4 handle.
// HEDGE jumped out Friday and Today .. //
Thanks boomagency for the warning, but one has to be careful following those hedge boys ... what did the majority of the hedge funds return last year? 1%? or was it 2%? Maybe they need to spend more time on the Yahoo msg boards.
// Right now the market is clearly not thrilled with the prasm guidance //
If that is the case then it is myopic. It is lower PRASM with higher ASMs ... there is some balance. I just knocked off 3% from last years PRASM of 12.77 cents mainline and 20.45 cents regional times their individual ASMs ... the revenue works out to $10.22 billion for Q1. The higher ASMs are a result of the increased seats on the new aircraft. Otherwise much of the PRASM drop wouldn't have occurred. They'll grow into the increase in seats.
They said business was strong.
Using midpoint PRASM and midpoint cost guidance, Q1 eps should be (and using only numbers that AAL put out) ... $2.36
The range using worst to best, PRASM and costs, is about +/- 27cents.
// trying to crunch numbers //
AAL provides a lot of variables ... you should look over their guidance.
Also re-think you statement about AAL's cost advantage compared to other airlines if fuel rises ... there is a lot of air that rising fuel has to make up before AAL looks even the same as other carriers.
Wasn't the RASM hit due to currency given as about 1%, and not sure if that included the .5% for VZ? ... so it is there, but doesn't seem that big. And overall the positives of a strong dollar will eventually overcome that.
And it is insane when taken in the context of fuel, as you say.
// Just finished my quick update ... $2.17 //
I can go conservative and get $1.69 to using midpoint cost guidance and current analysts' revenue estimates and get $2.33. So, what's not to like?
I have to go back and figure my own revenue, but the above still makes sense with the pre-tax margin guidance. So, .... ?
Maybe the reaction is just to the possible changing outlook on the economy, and it's impact on the airlines.
Just ran some quick numbers and definitely looks like a beat for Q1 ... and with some assumptions, adding some color ... by a lot. Have to go back and do more work. But initially with conservative assumptions, they beat easily.
// Can't just Pick what you Want to See. //
There are lots of color in a headline number like PRASM. I see yield too ... more important, and also remember to consider YOY percentages. Got to get a pencil out and work with the real PRASM computed from Q1 2014, etc., etc. Looking forward to their cost guidance filing.
Ex-fuel it also looks like things improve after Q1, and Q1 will still be good. Fuel ... just have to wait and see.
// but fund managers are dieing to catch the big drop in oil. //
At some point there will be some good buys in the oil patch. Hopefully, the fund managers won't "stain" their portfolios, and buy at the right time.
Well boys and girls ... the current eps estimates for 2015 are too low ... nothing like a $5 billion fuel savings for 2015.
// I don't own airlines at near highs when all is rosy. //
That sort of describes the last few years. One always has to re-evaluate.
Not that I know what's going to happen tomorrow, but AAL has gone up 10% over the last 2.5 months and earnings estimates have gone up 50%. And the estimates are "near" what they will make if oil goes back up to $65.
And the big question is whether the 12 vbe/usd holds ... I think VZ is going to announce a new exchange. That being said, and apparently you went back to the filing, didn't they say they had some agreement the VZ government on a value for a portion of the money? Anyway, whatever the hit, it will be like a small fuel hedge hit.
// small engines in snowblowers and lawn equipment //
Find a gas station that sells gas with no ethanol and fill up your gas can.
unc ... the one thing that no one talks about too much is the Venezuela situation. Though this has been known, this could be the time when they take the write down. A lot of other companies involved with Venezuela have been taking write downs. That'll dirty up 2014, but leave 2015 a little cleaner. It's been a known situation, but the reaction is unknown.
unc ... thanks for the advice to "just stay calm" when I said "I wonder" ... I came down from the ceiling.
It will be interesting what they put out as to 2015 fuel using the forward curve. It could be significantly differentiating from the others. I can understand you saying "everyone" knows. I can add "everyone" knows about the capx ... new planes, other merger investments, and that airline stocks have run-up the last few days. Then again, who knows what the market will do? Right now AAL is being treated just like the hedged airlines as to P/share.
The 4% extra labor cost is an extra cost, but ex the 4%, those increases were considered when they estimated making $4.3 billion (2015) in the merger prospectus as the synergies exceed the pre-merger labor agreements costs. I'm still holding to that (plus fuel savings). In 2014 the prospectus estimated $3.7 billion which they exceeded ... so far no reason to doubt AAL.
Unc ... 5% is not bad growth. It's not going to give you a high growth tech PE, but even no growth stocks can be trading below their "no growth" PE. Theoretically, there are only three variables in the "PE" model, earnings, growth of those earnings and the interest rate you discount those future earnings. Even a "no growth" yields a PE value. 5% growth isn't bad ... and especially as in the case of AAL, where earnings jumped 80-100% the year before (2015). Those are in-close earnings (2015), not earnings growth years out ... much more valuable (present value wise).