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US Airways Group, Inc. Message Board

wgrsh 270 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 1 minute ago Member since: May 11, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Mr. Parker is acting like Santa Claus

    by carruthersdevelopers Dec 23, 2014 3:45 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Dec 24, 2014 12:35 PM Flag

    // But the money is on the table. //

    Well, the synergies aren't in yet. The fuel savings is just happening and no guarantee as to how long it will last. So, you want to lock in something for years, because of synergies that haven't happened, and a fuel savings, which just started a few months ago, and not many have a handle on yet?

    I would guess that if these fuel savings last and synergies come in, the company may open the contract before it comes to an end. In the meantime, enjoy the upgrades, new equipment, secure job and smile .. it's Christmas.

  • Reply to

    Mr. Parker is acting like Santa Claus

    by carruthersdevelopers Dec 23, 2014 3:45 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Dec 24, 2014 10:44 AM Flag

    // My pay does not begin until the door is shut and breaks are released yet... //

    fly ... Actually, the bulk of your pay is salary through a monthly guarantee with incremental hourly pay. l would say your work starts when you report for work, and being a professional before that many times.

    Your group agrees to negotiate through your union, rogue behavior by some doesn't help the cause or the profession.

    When you go to work, give AAL a bang for the buck and get money on the table to negotiate for.

  • Reply to

    Depreciation expense rising in future

    by wgrsh Dec 23, 2014 5:28 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Dec 24, 2014 8:06 AM Flag

    // Will also result in lower fuel and maintenance costs //

    Good things just get better, don't they unc?

    The AAL news release that bears linked mentioned lease agreements, but not whether they were capitalized or operating. I know they have been doing ETCs, so many leases have to be capitalized. Though I'm sure some planes will be kept on operating leases for some flexibility. This fuel savings is a gift that will keep giving and there is nothing like good earnings to straighten out the balance sheet.

  • Reply to

    Depreciation expense rising in future

    by wgrsh Dec 23, 2014 5:28 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Dec 23, 2014 9:18 PM Flag

    // but they look more to EV/EBITDA, and Other things. //

    Yes, and they can get locked into favorite numbers and ways of looking at things ... sometimes with that approach, they miss a move from $2 to $50.

    Better to keep an eye on the big picture .... in case things change before they show up in the "favorite numbers"

  • Reply to

    Depreciation expense rising in future

    by wgrsh Dec 23, 2014 5:28 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Dec 23, 2014 7:54 PM Flag

    Thanks bears ... leasing the Boeings at least.

  • Reply to

    Depreciation expense rising in future

    by wgrsh Dec 23, 2014 5:28 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Dec 23, 2014 7:14 PM Flag

    Well, I'm just trying to catch up with the analysts then, in trying to figure the earnings for the out years. Was just wondering if anyone had the number, or made an estimate. And I was primarily interested in the depreciation expense's impact on earnings. I have been focused on the fuel savings impact on earnings, and realized I better get back to the bigger picture and look at other things impacting earnings.

    But I do agree with you about the counter balance with debt service especially in AAL's case of not using cash and the counter balance effect (in normal times). I think they have been using debt for the new aircraft, so was assuming not leasing (but I was assuming).

    This may not be normal times with the drop in fuel costs ... maybe some unusually good times. With a couple of years of low fuel, you have to feel that some debt is going to disappear ... leave that to AAL.

  • Depreciation increasing doesn't change cash flow, but has anyone estimated what the new depreciation expense will be with all the new airplanes? It will impact earnings, and just wonder by how much.

  • Reply to

    triple top

    by dmndblue Dec 22, 2014 5:36 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Dec 23, 2014 1:33 PM Flag

    Common on unc ... AAL may have been better in Q3, but that could have been the case for every airline ... so, maybe AAL isn't a "little shy" ... except for the nominal number which could be for many reasons and balanced out by a relative CASM change.

  • Reply to

    triple top

    by dmndblue Dec 22, 2014 5:36 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Dec 23, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    unc ... of course, apples to apples, peak to peak, the Nasdaq is just getting back to flat over a 14 year period ... it has some good stocks in it now:) ... time to go up.

  • Reply to

    triple top

    by dmndblue Dec 22, 2014 5:36 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Dec 23, 2014 12:54 PM Flag

    I'd be willing to bet that AAL's actual PRASM didn't change significantly relative to other airlines from Q to Q.

  • Reply to

    triple top

    by dmndblue Dec 22, 2014 5:36 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Dec 23, 2014 12:06 PM Flag

    mark ... hasn't AAL gone up the same as those that had good monthly numbers ... maybe more?

    And really, the monthly numbers are put out there so investors can add the percentage change to last year's actual PRASM number (in cents) and multiply that times projected ASMs for the current quarter and use that result along with cargo, fees, etc to get a revenue estimate for the current quarter. But, for some reason, I don't think many do that ...

    I thought we beat to death the YOY numbers 3 weeks ago. AAL with zero YOY PRASM growth could have exactly the same PRASM in Q4 as an airline that had 4% YOY PRASM growth.

  • Reply to

    Delta's profit sharing

    by wgrsh Dec 18, 2014 9:30 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Dec 19, 2014 10:19 PM Flag

    Thanks, fly. I'll try to figure out the other questions so I can get a feel for DAL's profits going forward. It almost sounds like the PS could have a perpetual fuel hedge (2015's) impact.

    Obviously, the PS is an eye catcher, but it is only part of the big picture. I would be interesting to get a comparison of contract costs across companies. PS is a plus, but are there work rule cost differences that offset? Not saying there are. I guess one would have to be on a negotiating subcommittee looking into that to get the full picture.

    I am interested in capacity control though and in that respect, do you know the min and max monthly hours, and what the current scheduling target is? ... of the proposed contract ... and if not that, the old?

    Got a get up early ... night is over for me.

  • Reply to

    Delta's profit sharing

    by wgrsh Dec 18, 2014 9:30 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Dec 18, 2014 11:21 PM Flag

    Thanks ... do you know if this year's payment is based on last year's profits, or this year's? And do you know what is the "profit" used ... i.e. net profit as reported, profit before such and such, profit excluding such and such ... etc. ?

    I know this year, it's adding 15% to wages, but last year it was near 8% ... 6% and say 3-4% the years before that. Just trying to figure out it works. Maybe I need to do some reading in their SEC filings.

    I'm starting to wonder if DAL has put themselves at a competitive disadvantage.

  • Does anyone know the terms of Delta's profit sharing ... like "x"% or this year's profit, or last year's profit? Is it up to a certain amount? Does the percentage change at certain profit levels, etc?

  • Reply to

    I project fuel cost $2.35/gal for 4Q

    by dmspilot00 Dec 18, 2014 2:38 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Dec 18, 2014 3:09 PM Flag

    Thanks ... I was waiting to hear from you. That fuel price should provide for a meet, or beat, of the current estimates.

  • wgrsh wgrsh Dec 18, 2014 10:20 AM Flag

    He did say "at least" by mid-2015. I would think if there is any recovery in oil, producers will be selling their future production.

  • wgrsh wgrsh Dec 18, 2014 10:14 AM Flag

    Oil is just rolling out to the next month, and as it does, every month oil pops a little bit. Happens every month.

  • Reply to

    Stock is only $2 higher than when oil was $110 in June

    by iahphx Dec 17, 2014 12:33 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Dec 17, 2014 7:48 PM Flag

    unc ... yes ... if the industry behaves, they might just do it too. But not tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    Stock is only $2 higher than when oil was $110 in June

    by iahphx Dec 17, 2014 12:33 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Dec 17, 2014 6:18 PM Flag

    cav ... don't you think the lower multiple for airlines is more due to the airline industry being viewed as cyclical ... tied to the business cycle, not necessarily tied to unexpected events. All stocks can have unexpected events.

    The lower multiple just takes the place of using a higher multiple and what would be the "average" earnings over the business cycle. If the airlines can adjust capacity fast enough in the future during a business slow down, and the volatility of their earnings is lessened, the market may just tweak the multiple higher ... that's out in the future. But they are showing they are getting pretty good at right sizing the businesses for conditions.

  • Reply to

    Yellen is Santa

    by markusgzee Dec 17, 2014 2:40 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Dec 17, 2014 3:16 PM Flag

    First ... congrats on your quitting. (I'm surprised someone on the board didn't say they picked a bad week to quit sniffing glue, after you posted that.)

    Actually, if this pullback is over, it'll be less than 10 percent ... tame historically for the airlines. I hope we can look forward to avoiding the usual 15-25% pullbacks in the future. I've gotten so use to it, I say, "Here we go again ... the next week or two isn't going to be fun." Then it is over and it bounces. Faith in fundamentals.

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