Actually, I thought it was only down that low for about 6-7 minutes. If you went to get coffee, you missed it. Had to have orders already in ... say at the gap.
I didn't like the repeal of Glass-Steagall either, but at the time European banks weren't hamstrung by a law like that and to be non political about it, we decided to be more like Europe instead of Europe becoming more like us. But probably more devastating was the Commodities Modernization Act of 2000 which deregulated derivatives ... (and for the same reasons of the repeal of Glass-Steagall ... to be more like Europe). Sure a republican congress, but this was pushed hard by Rubins and Summers within the WH.
I'm not against trying something new ... this just wasn't caught in time. Greenspan for years said derivatives seem to lessen risk in his testimonies. And for that matter in 2006 the WH did start investigating what was going on with commodities through the GAO, but results were inconclusive. Bush walked into office with terrorism increasing, deregulated derivatives, dotcom bust, and a recession ... his plate was full and not his doing. Sometimes changes are made and things go bad ... well, they did. TARP stabilized the financial system, but the damage was done.
'' ... The Soviet Union was long bankrupt before Reagan was even elected."
The USSR was having economic problems. And they wanted a Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT) so they wouldn't have to spend money on an arms race. Carter was for SALT. Reagan realizing that our economy could handle it, and theirs couldn't, walked away from Gorbo in Iceland over the talks ... SALT would have extended the life of the USSR. It was a system better ended sooner rather than later.
"... incorrectly blame him for the financial collapse to W ..."
Certainly there were bad mortgages, but those alone probably would have only cause a mild downturn. The financial collapse came about because of derivatives. Derivatives were deregulated in 2000, and W couldn't have done anything about those even if he wanted to ... it was all legal (ever wonder why no one is going to jail?). Derivatives sold as insurance against the structured mortgage vehicles if they defaulted. And the financial institutions that sold the insurance didn't have the reserves to pay off if default happened. (Probably the only "insurance" product not regulated in the country). When the mortgage back securities started to look bad, and not all were, but since they were deregulated no one had to keep track where the bad ones were ... so all were assumed bad ... hence, financial freeze. Most of the layoffs and foreclosures happened after and because of the financial freeze ... not the initial batch of potentially bad mortgages.
Clinton signed the Commodities Modernization Act of 2000 in November of 2000 walking out the door ... what a "gift" to the country. It took about 3-4 years for financial derivative use to become widespread enough to become deadly ... and it did (in commodities also ... just fixing the problems with commodity derivatives recently).
Unc ... AAL does give enough guidance. Their comment about not going to positive prasm until Q3 2016 was a safe call (maybe taken overly negative). I remember Keay saying that if AAL just laid it on the line in January the market probably wouldn't have dropped it so much ... so shortly after Keay says that AAL comes out with their Q3 of 2016 comment. Which is not in congruent with DAL's comment about going to flat prasm in Q1 2016 ... AAL could also be flat in Q1 and Q2 2016 (+/-) and still not be wrong with their projection for Q3. The slant to their comment is good for buybacks.
// Oil at $38 or lower for long term is going to keep dollar too strong //
A strong dollar means cheaper oil ... it's not the other way around. If we raise rates, the dollar will strengthen and oil will be cheaper than it otherwise would have been.
I'll take oil at whatever price where supply is enough. As far as today goes, oil had to bounce sometime. We still have supply on our side, a relatively strong dollar, and we are set to put position limits on commodity derivatives (unless the politicians get cold feet). And airlines do well with a good economy ... go 3.7% GDP.
The Fed would probably like to raise rates absent the emerging market situation ... but that situation exists. Back in June or July the IMF and EU ask the Fed not to raise rates until later (end of year or 2016). They are probably looking for an excuse to delay.
GDP ... 3.7% ... pretty good. Lots of trucks on the road.
Unc ... I shouldn't have posted it since it took this long for people to catch on. It's just that livingthdream posted Silicone Valley when he was talking about Silicon Valley.
Oh, please Unc ... take it for what it is worth ... and it came from the owner anyway.
China events? I'd say the market goes up and the market goes down. Maybe too many hedge funds got into trouble and have to sell what the can.
// Maybe you should check with UPS, FDX ,CSX or UNP instead? //
Yes, all good to check. Trucks over the road though has always been something to watch ... its all commerce.
Incidentally, on the trip to an area of WI with lots of lakes (and lots of Chicago people), one night after dinner at a restaurant, we went to the bar and the servers were almost giddy about the summer being the best in 7-9 years ... the owner said it also, and said the whole town was taken back by how good (business wise) the summer was.
// Seems very scientific. //
You'd be surprised.
Actually, most "scientific studies" are done by people that can barely spell statistics ... they just have to be pc to get a grant ... all a gig ... what's this world coming to ... can't even trust science.
Don't drink coffee, or put salt on anything.
The emerging market trade is less than 50% if you count the free trade across state lines in the US. And more than 50% if you don't the count the trade between European countries since most of their trade is between EU states as it is between US states and not counted.
Another way of looking at FX is that it has been out of whack for 8-10 years and just getting back to normal.
I was on a road trip over the last week, and if the number of trucks on the road are any indicator of the economy, the economy is good. Back in 2008, I would count 1-3 semi's per mile, and then 5-7 a few years later. Last week, the count was 8-9 per mile, and on some main interstates the count went to 10-13 per mile. And I could barely see because semi's were surrounding me going in my direction. Airlines will be fine with a good economy.
The market is going through its thing. There are a few areas of support, but could go to the 2020-25 area ... and if that doesn't hold, who knows we could get that 10% (even though we did 9% a number of times over the last number of years ... there must be something special about the next 1%.) And who knows ... the market could turn around today, or not.
// there is a 4th one //
1. Lifting the oil ban: Granted this would help domestic producers. WTI should rise towards Brent ... so where does Brent go? Products, jet fuel, etc., are priced off of Brent anyway. Refiners may suffer.
2. Saudi cut production: They always do in the fall after the air conditioning season ends. But that oil for air conditioning never left Saudi anyway ... no change to world oil supply. And even though the media says the Saudi production is to put pressure on the shale producers, they are probably more concerned with giving up market share to other OPEC members who all have to pump like crazy to meet budgets ... even at a higher price where shale producers have a price where they can pump like crazy (in that case OPEC would have to keep cutting ... does OPEC really want to start that?). Who knows what the Saudis will do? I think they are stuck.
4. I'll do "4" before "3": If the Fed raises interest rates you said the dollar stabilizes or declines. If the Fed raises interest rates, the dollar will strengthen. The Fed isn't waiting for the stock market. If anything they are just giving the economy a few more months if they don't raise in September. Besides, the IMF and the EU are pushing the Fed to wait a little, and even though an external request, there is a case to be made that it is in our self interest if it impact the global economy. Stronger dollar ... lower oil.
3. Mergers and Acquisitions: I'm sure it will happen, and wish that you pick one the is beneficial to your portfolio. I imagine there will be cost synergies, impacting production costs allowing more oil being produced at a lower price. More oil production possible with lower costs ... lower oil.
5. Consider the CFTC implementing the additional Dodd-Frank measures impacting commodity derivatives. Basel III is doing it also. Maybe your MIT friend has some input on this? Lower oil?
Unc ... didn't LUV say they had book losses on future hedges going forward for the next couple of years of $1.3 billion? (That is a question) And that was based on June 30th prices, unless they gave the loss amount as of their CC. If oil stays in the range it has this year for a few years ... could be an ouch.
// ... Tax the Top 1% ... //
The top wage earners, assuming they are the ones that are top wealth holders, invest. Some of that investment is in Treasury bonds that finance our deficit. If you take that money away, who will be left to finance the Treasury (federal deficit)? Interest rates will go up and the common guy will be hurt by higher interest rates. Why hurt the common guy?
// No, we are an exporter that is why our economy is #1.//
Foreign trade has always been a small (but important) part of our economy, yet we are the world's largest trader. The only country that does business with every other country. Essentially our economy is #1 because we tend to be more capitalistic (with hopefully the "proper" mix of government regulation), and always had free trade between our states (not a zero sum game).