Iahphx, I agree, no matter what the reason for the selling, everything is at least a little caught up in the contagion. Maybe the S&P will hold 1950, and if not the 1870 area from the late summer.
Just wondering about thoughts about future mergers in the industry. Does a JBLU/HA tie up make sense? Maybe add another to fill in some blanks ... make it a three way? After the discussion of SAVE yesterday with the change of CEO, if SAVE changes their model, would they also make a fit? Or VA?
Yes, there are a few different percentages 90%, 100% or 110%, depending on the variability of income year to year. I agree, if you have an unusual gain in 2016, you'd only need to make estimated taxes of 110% of 2015 income. I guess the talking shirts were talking to a special situation assuming they were talking to those that know. They probably should have said (and none did), if you have an unusually large gain relative to the previous year's gain you can do that.
The last few days, talking shirts on TV have been saying if you sell a stock in early January, you don't have to pay taxes until a year from April. Don't people make estimated taxes? I mean if you don't make estimated taxes when you have cap gains, you're going to get hit with a tax penalty. What is the thinking ... do they just accept the tax penalty, or hope they won't get caught, or don't they know the rules?
// we want to see their Load Factors up in the "questioned" regions //
What load factors and regions? Thought domestic loads were pretty good. Would like to see fares stabilize.
AAL really took down prasm last summer. The yoy comps should look ok in the 2H 2016. Even the dollar is around where it was last summer.
// The thing is most people didn't know that the Unit Revenue will be flat to up in coming quarters, ... //
unc ... DAL said during the summer they expected to be flat unit revenue going into Q1. Maybe the market needs to start listening to these CEOs ... Parker included ... making more than your cost of capital over the business cycle is huge ... relative to current valuations.
// Buy backs will not move AAL's stock anymore. //
It will move the stock eventually. It's an easy math calculation ... sort of. In AAL's case (or DAL's), if you are making money (more than your cost of capital), buybacks will give you a higher EPS. If you have a bad year and only make a little, the extra interest will over come the fewer shares and give you a lower EPS than what you would have had if you lowered debt.
Parker has said he wants to manage the airline to make more than its cost of capital over the business cycle. In that case, buybacks are good. And the buybacks should continue even at higher prices (AAL was buying stock back in the high 40s).
For right now, the market isn't believing Parker. For that matter the market looks like it is only valuing AAL as making "half" its cost of capital over the business cycle.
Air Tran ... that's right. Do you think he's being tasked with changing SAVE's business model? Maybe if successful that would make it a more attractive merger partner for someone.
iahphx ... I don't know Fornaro's background. Why do you feel he'll take SAVE in a different direction regarding pricing?
I understand cav ... this board rightfully so is focused on oil and that is the commodity that is always talked about. To talk about corn and the others would be corny even though that went up with oil and the others (mid 2000s), and then down when all the others went down in May/June 2014.
cav ... the dollar had an impact with all commodities ... what do you think, about 25%?
Also, and you probably know I've mentioned this for over 6 years ... commodity derivatives were going to be reregulated. Unfortunately, it's taken this long to do it. But by the spring of 2014 many new rules went into effect and those not in effect yet were laid out for all to see. The hand writing was on the wall. It's in the Federal Register that they thought about 25% of the price was financial speculation ... off the record it was estimated higher. Basel III is doing the same.
The rest I'll give to supplies stories. I know you'll object, but please explain why all other commodities that were going to be regulated dropped as well as oil starting in May/June of 2014.
// all commodities dropped starting last May/June by 30-60% //
May/June of 2014 that is ... what are the odds they all had "stories" like oil? I would say almost none of them had stories. Almost all had supplies over the last decade within their 5 year average like oil had.
cav ... all commodities dropped starting last May/June by 30-60% ... ags, etc., ... not just oil. The Iran story doesn't explain them all.
// People can always find ways to beat Monkeys. //
I'm surprised the mechanical monkeys don't have a larger repertoire. What percent of the daily trading volume, do you think, is done by algos playing with themselves?
// Its the Year of the Monkey coming//
Good info, unc ... does that mean that next year we can watch the vid of the "Rally Monkey".
The golden cross is near for AAL. Maybe AAL will get out of the doldrums. S&P is going to get a golden cross too. Hasn't happen yet, but close for both.
Mit ... I haven't put a pencil to 2016 yet, but do have what I feel is good estimate by just looking at the percentage changes in prasm and casm from 2014's earnings and subtracting that from fuel savings since 2014, and considering the change in the number of shares, etc. ... but that is done all in my head. The $9 pretax seems fine, and you could put a range on it of +/- $1 (really depends how 2016 plays out). Can compute the after tax number from that if you want. I don't know if any of that matters, since even the lower end suggest that AAL's price should be higher than now. I don't know when that will change ... maybe after the market accepts that the airline industry will make good money over the business cycle.
In January, AAL will put out more specific 2016 guidance ... I'll look more closely at it then.
Hi Mit ... good to hear from you. Yup, still hanging around the markets. It's been a great run since those days. My portfolios have moved around too.
The golden cross may be delayed if things don't turn around. The S&P was looking at one also. But both (and many others) have gaps with minor support on the way down. Time will tell.