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Alcoa Inc. Message Board

wgrsh 53 posts  |  Last Activity: 13 hours ago Member since: May 11, 2005
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  • Reply to


    by hoxstox Apr 3, 2016 7:05 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 4, 2016 12:39 PM Flag

    Blue Hawaii, that's maybe the Spirit

  • Reply to

    Rig Count

    by not_a_short Mar 7, 2016 4:58 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 7, 2016 5:47 PM Flag

    Has anyone ever heard that about 380 rigs do 80% of the drilling? I feel sure I read that about a year ago. It talked about the multi-well rigs that can do 4-18 wells in a single spot and then crawl to another spot. That's instead of the older 1 rig/1 well, dismantle, move, setup again (costly and time consuming). Anyway, just haven't heard any discussion here, or on the news when reporting "rig" count, as if all rigs were equal.

  • Reply to


    by cavalier2015 Apr 21, 2016 11:28 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 21, 2016 1:13 PM Flag

    Domestically, things are ok. I would think the legacies have near the situation with LUV as far as domestic prasm goes. I thought LUV's prasm was down about 3.5%. And the other half of the prasm problem for legacies is with the global demand, and dollar, fuel surcharges. The dollar and fuel surcharges will eventually lap themselves yoy. Things just have to play out.

    There seems to be a tone change with the pundits not believing the industry has changed and are reverting to old ways. That is an easy sell to investors.

    Market pundits in all sectors have been jumpy lately ... Armageddon one day, not Armageddon the next ...

  • A few days ago there was an article that mentioned there were 5 fare increases so far in 2016, and 3 stuck. The article mentioned it was an average $22/ticket round trip. If true, I suppose it will be a few months before the impact given the lag in bookings. Does anyone know the real story about these supposed fare increases?

  • Reply to

    Fare increases

    by wgrsh Mar 1, 2016 11:46 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 1, 2016 12:45 PM Flag

    Unc ... I believe the article talked about a $22 increase on a ticket in the $450 range ... 5% is big ... and so is half that amount. And thanks ... read yours too.

  • Reply to

    P/E Ratio

    by nuthead48 20 hours ago

    // BTW, I find it interesting how little discussion of cash taxes there is. //

    iah ... I think everyone understands that situation, even before they reversed the NOL's and had to report the non-cash taxes.

    It's a "show me" situation ... I don't know what it will take. If oil averages what it did last year, EPS will be lower than current estimates ($4.xx) ... don't know what share count the market will use in their thinking (GAAP share count or what?). That's still pretty good for a $30 stock. Anyway, for that to happen, oil needs to get up into the high 50s very soon and stay there for the rest of the year. Near the $60/bbl level ... that's pumping territory.

    Just read cav's comment about Kirby and margins ... if those margins are achieved, nothing to worry about.

  • Reply to


    by cavalier2015 Apr 21, 2016 11:28 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 21, 2016 1:42 PM Flag

    // LUV's PRASM was down 3.63%; but RSAM was one penny Up from 13.67c to 13.68c //

    One's a YOY number and one is a nominal change. And I was never implying LUV isn't doing well, just that domestically operations aren't that different.

    LUV had a good year hedging in 2008 ... lost out every year since.

  • There are three variables in the PE. Earnings, growth of earnings and the interest rate to discount those earnings. If you assume no growth in earnings, there is just earnings and the interest rate. A no earnings growth PE is (let's just grab a figure), let's say, 15. If a company makes $2.70/share, the stock should be fairly valued at about $40 (15 times $2.70). Will AAL average $2.70 over the business cycle?

    (I realize there is a time value of earnings that would come into play the more variable the earnings are even if they "average" $2.70 ... )

  • Reply to


    by cavalier2015 Apr 21, 2016 11:28 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 21, 2016 1:34 PM Flag

    Look at DAL ... low debt, higher dividend, and they are only 12-13% higher per share. But their earnings per share are 9% higher. So, does lower debt and higher dividend add anymore than 3-4% to share price?

  • Reply to

    Parker Put

    by unclespeaking Apr 22, 2016 10:03 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 23, 2016 10:37 AM Flag

    // ... at 2015 4q call he said 1q prasm would be the "trough", ... //

    cav, I took the term "trough" as being nominal and not YOY. I didn't necessarily take Kirby's statement as saying much, since Q1 nominal prasm could very well be the lowest for the year, but still have other quarters show YOY declines. I didn't check out the numbers to see if that was right way to look at it.

  • Reply to

    Fare increases

    by wgrsh Mar 1, 2016 11:46 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 1, 2016 1:34 PM Flag

    Regardless, it's good to see the airlines starting to stabilize and maybe moving revenue in the right direction.

    I didn't put a pencil to this, but just looking at some charts and graphs, it looks like oil would have to average close to $57/bbl for Q2-4 2016 for oil to average what it did in 2015 ... I could be off since I normally use the back of an envelope. So, it seems tailwinds are gathering.

  • Reply to

    Looks like everyone is so bored

    by unclespeaking Mar 14, 2016 3:09 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 14, 2016 8:10 PM Flag

    // Somebody took it seriously after-market beating Uncle by a penny to $42.83. //

    Maybe someone turned on the up escalator.

  • Reply to

    Is this PCLN fallout?

    by iahphx May 4, 2016 2:45 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh May 4, 2016 2:59 PM Flag

    Lot's of things ... The shorts were put on in early April and things are just playing out.

  • Reply to


    by cavalier2015 Apr 22, 2016 8:01 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 22, 2016 1:44 PM Flag

    cav ... not that it matters much, given other things, but wasn't margin guidance 14-16% for Q2? I just used the midpoint.

  • Reply to

    Uncle's New Short-term Target of $44

    by unclespeaking Mar 14, 2016 8:15 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 14, 2016 9:01 PM Flag

    // but the earlier the better //

    The pundits have been talking about "value" over "growth" recently. HA went up more than 10 bucks in a flash. Things could change soon.

  • Reply to


    by cavalier2015 Apr 21, 2016 11:28 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 21, 2016 1:50 PM Flag

    Definitely volatile price movements around earnings and dividend time. Even some people isolating the variables to play the game ... even more so than in the past.

  • The legacies have all indicated they would manage capacity.

    I don't know how many listened to LUV's Q1 webcast, but they indicated only 5-6% increase this year (I think that was mostly out of Houston), and then to average only 2% growth over the 3 years ending in 2018 ... seems to me that means essentially no growth in 2017-2018.

    (This pilot shortage needs some discussion ... seems more and more articles about it are popping up.)

  • Reply to

    Parker Put

    by unclespeaking Apr 22, 2016 10:03 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 23, 2016 7:11 PM Flag

    // LUV is same as everyone else with declining PRASM //

    Guess I didn't hear their Q2 prasm forcast correctly. Thought they said it would be in the flat range.

  • Reply to


    by peachbacks Mar 11, 2016 5:17 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 11, 2016 10:01 PM Flag

    // Is this done by the companies? //

    Most, if not all, have planes they can park, and numerous other ways to reduce capacity. And labor contracts now, as opposed to the "old" days, allow for labor savings too without onerous penalties.

  • Reply to

    Valuation over the business cycle

    by wgrsh Apr 20, 2016 11:02 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 20, 2016 12:09 PM Flag

    I have to add something else the market is not considering. Just as the airlines will adjust capacity/fares for (fuel) costs, they will also do that economic conditions. What will happen in the next "recession"? The industry will manage to make margins, not lose money. It may take a few quarters to adjust, but they will adjust.

    Also, in the past, the change going into a recession went from a 4-5% gdp to negative. Now the fall will be from a 1.5-2.0% gdp ... makes for an easier adjustment. I get the feeling the market is assuming the airline industry will get "hammered" in the next downturn ... that may be a mistake to think that.

    If we ever get back to a 4-5% growth rate in gdp, revenue will grow and margins will be made on that growth instead of on a 1.5-2.0% growth rate.

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