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Alcoa Inc. Message Board

wgrsh 287 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 27, 2015 5:56 PM Member since: May 11, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Banks Day

    by ochsnerbier Apr 29, 2015 12:25 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 30, 2015 5:04 PM Flag

    You know what they say about stocks, or sectors, that show relative strength in a down market ... bodes well for the future ... you want to be in them when the market turns.

  • Reply to

    $38-$42

    by mv3guy Feb 9, 2015 11:08 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Feb 9, 2015 1:08 PM Flag

    // Wg, personally I think those that hold, long or short, think about their predictions //

    This is a message board, bears ... people can make up anything they want about their holdings ... it's not like they make an sec filing. If you think, what someone says about their "holdings" helps you decide how to invest ... go ahead, listen to them.

    I would think that discussing, knowing, etc about the industry, stock fundamentals, the market, technicals, etc is what is important ... but if you want to lend credence to what some anonymous message board poster posts about their holdings and think that makes them more or less credible ... have at it.

  • Reply to

    March Numbers

    by cavalier2015 Apr 10, 2015 8:16 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 10, 2015 8:43 AM Flag

    Prasm was better for the quarter, but asm's were less than planned, so revenue probably stayed close to what it was before. Knocking off another .5 in margins probably takes away $60 million. It can still hit estimates depending on share count and how close to midpoint their numbers are.

    To be safe, I hope quarterly estimates tick down a few. But overall things are still moving along. The dollar is the dollar, and adjustments can be made ... rapid changes within a quarter are hard to deal with immediately.

  • Reply to

    Traffic/1st Q report

    by bearsrunfrombulls Apr 10, 2015 12:50 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 10, 2015 12:58 PM Flag

    I see room for negative spin, but really won't be negative. AAL plans increased stage length and fewer departures, saving fuel, but this will also hinder prasm. More asm's will cover that and hopefully cover it plus some.

    One positive is that the negative yoy comp of VZ goes away in Q3. And economic conditions should improve going forward ... another positive.

  • Reply to

    March Numbers

    by cavalier2015 Apr 10, 2015 8:16 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 10, 2015 9:12 AM Flag

    cav ... they announced that fuel range awhile ago ... glad to see it didn't change ... have to pull up 8K and go over things.

  • Reply to

    Problem I have with 2016 estimates ...

    by wgrsh Apr 28, 2015 11:24 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 28, 2015 12:02 PM Flag

    Different segments of Wall Street investors are attracted to different investments ... growth, value, etc.

    If oil settles out around $75, some synergies come in and the industry gets a grip on revenues, I'll take the projection of earnings, as well as value.

    AAL characterized the current prasm weakness more as 2015 plans encountering some turbulence and airlines will adjust. Currency and world economies created some initial clouds coming into 2015 ... it has for most industries. The industry will tweak its way through things. 2015 initial plans weren't right for conditions.

    AAL said Europe was strong ... it was weak going into Q1. AAL said at the end of January 4 countries in South America were weak ... in the CC it was only Brazil and VZ.

  • Reply to

    Libya/Iraq

    by cavalier2015 Feb 16, 2015 8:40 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Feb 16, 2015 11:52 PM Flag

    Sanctions on Iraq due to Saddam held back Iraqi oil production for years ... he had to change or leave to get their oil going. Would have started to look pretty prosperous by now, if ISIL didn't reappear ... would have started to look like a real beacon of prosperity in the ME ...

  • Reply to

    Libya/Iraq

    by cavalier2015 Feb 16, 2015 8:40 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Feb 17, 2015 12:14 AM Flag

    There is no separation of church and state in Islam ... very difficult for the western mind to get a grip on. They need a reformation that separates that ... it's too much of a socio/political system that needs to separate from the "religion" (which is looking like a much smaller part of it). Some are talking about the need. Even the leaders in Egypt and Jordan are bringing it up ... that line has to be given support. Otherwise the West can look forward to another 1400 years of periodic confrontation.

  • This is like watching paint dry ... The CFTC put the position limit and aggregation proposal out for public comment again ... 4th+ time in a year. And this has been going on for over 5 years. Essentially, it will limit positions (aggregated across entities with ownership control) for 28 agricultural, energy and metal commodities. The comment period closes on March 28th. The CFTC needs to do this without watering the proposal down ... they've watered it down some already.

    There is huge pushback from some industries and those that like their derivative swaps and don't want transparency, or if transparent, not to be accused of manipulative positions. Shortly after the Commodity Modernization Act of 2000, which deregulated derivatives, and the few years it took to come up with creative derivative products ... you know, commodities and other areas of the financial world have been screwed up. We've all been fed cool aid ... yup, supply and demand. Well, commodities look to futures for determining price ... not necessarily supply and demand. Since the early-mid 2000 commodity derivative swaps with no position limits gave the futures market something to "key off of" for price discovery, and subsequently the futures market provided price discovery for the commodities ... how accurate was our futures market?

    Don't get me wrong, speculation is necessary, but just as there can be too little speculation, there can be too much. The CFTC has already come out and said they feel there was 20-25% manipulation (whisper number higher) with oil at $70 and that was a number of years ago when the dollar was weak ... that's in the Federal Register.

    The CFTC needs to do what is right. Inaccurate prices in an economy leads to a misallocation of resources ... and an economy that is less than it could be.

  • Reply to

    Rigs only down 43

    by unclespeaking Feb 27, 2015 2:00 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Feb 27, 2015 2:25 PM Flag

    This year the Gulf will be producing more, and wells added. The new drilling techniques are being applied in the Gulf. These are wells that will produce for 10+ years.

  • Reply to

    Libya/Iraq

    by cavalier2015 Feb 16, 2015 8:40 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Feb 16, 2015 11:43 PM Flag

    // Now we have evil incarnate in ISIS to deal with //

    We already fought these guy in the surge ... didn't we? They're back.

    // Sadamm had been our ally for years and had no WMD. Ditto Assad in Syria.. //

    Always wondered about the WMD that the Russians hurriedly took out of Syria. We certainly didn't want to look into it.

    // Quadafi was actually moving towards the west, gave up WMD including nuclear program ... //

    When we went into Iraq, Quadafi did cry uncle, as you say, but later when it appeared we were backing away from the ME, he started to change his ways.

  • Reply to

    Thoughts on why oil has gone up again?

    by jmmarque1 Feb 13, 2015 9:06 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Feb 13, 2015 9:28 AM Flag

    I really don't know, but I know this time of month the next month's contract starts being quoted. For example, Brent rolled to the April contract from March. The April contract was higher in price. I think WTI is still using March's contract quote, but April's contract is at least a buck higher, so one day (soon) it will jump. Then the prices will normally settle down ... I guess as the contracts get closer to cash ...

    Don't know if that is the reason ... just a pattern that seems to happen every month.

  • Nice after hour pop

  • Reply to

    Chinese airlines stocks up

    by vinybj21 Mar 29, 2015 11:09 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 30, 2015 8:17 AM Flag

    The fuel cost savings definitely aren't in the airline stocks yet ... guess there are just too many non-believers. Maybe, with the Chinese airlines reporting last night, that's just the dose of reality that the sector needs.

    Filled the gap in the low $50s last week ... it's ready to go.

  • Reply to

    AAL Share count has been reduced!

    by zetove Mar 11, 2015 1:57 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 11, 2015 10:35 AM Flag

    Regards share count ... don't you have to add in the shares being held for disputed claims to the number you are citing?

  • Reply to

    squawkbox today

    by raysouth90 Mar 11, 2015 9:50 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 11, 2015 10:23 AM Flag

    bears ... ok, thanks ... was just wondering if I missed some news out there today.

    Yes, the prasm comps YOY seemed explained to me in the CC, but spooked others I guess.

    A small percent due to currency, residual VZ until June, and added seats that couldn't be presold. But having said that, when airlines want to pullback, they pullback, and use anything as an excuse.

  • wgrsh wgrsh Mar 12, 2015 2:02 PM Flag

    // The only airline that has benefited on a fairly significant basis with new slots, etc. is LUV //

    bears ... just to mention, even LUV's growth in ASMs this year is mostly from increased stage length and gauge increase with only a minor increase in new departures. And I don't think their ASM growth is out of line especially considering the above.

    The industry is still in line, and it's looking like a strong summer.

  • Reply to

    Traffic concern

    by markusgzee Mar 4, 2015 11:10 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 5, 2015 9:22 AM Flag

    This happens every year ... certainly not worse than last year. Didn't DAL say the other day that one of the reasons for their prasm weakness was fewer cancellations than last year? I know AAL said during the CC that was a component of their prasm projection, among other things (extra seats, currency, etc)

  • wgrsh wgrsh Apr 9, 2015 1:26 PM Flag

    Just a matter of a few weeks required, bears (I know you know). And historically, drilling fracking wells follows the price of oil. It'll be a lot quicker and cheaper with the latest technological advances.

    Right now there are many wells that are drilled, but not being fracked ... so those can be had even quicker. There is also consideration being given to re-fracking old wells (50,000 wells) ... (the old "frack and pray"), but there are companies that feel technological changes make it so there is less praying required.

  • Reply to

    Leave it to the media to say the stupidest things

    by iahphx Mar 13, 2015 5:08 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 13, 2015 5:27 PM Flag

    // "American Airlines Can Survive Rising Fuel Prices" //

    The article seemed alright until I read AAL doubled since the early fall ... comparing the ebola low to January high ... guess people have different ways of looking at things ... always have to remember that. And then the article's use of "severe" headwinds supposedly mentioned in the CC ... guess I wasn't listening very well and missed the use of the word "severe".

    Re: fuel ... it looks like the marginal producer is Canada with $45/bbl. I don't see how oil is going to get above $55-65 going forward ... it'll just attract production that can be restarted quickly.

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