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Alcoa Inc. Message Board

wgrsh 293 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 52 minutes ago Member since: May 11, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Price Manipulation

    by jameschen_jia Mar 24, 2014 4:30 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 25, 2014 11:47 PM Flag

    "US Airway had a merger with the bankrupted America West way before American Airlines"

    James ... Actually, it was the other way around ... America West merged with a BK US Air. But it's just a small point.

    You got one thing right, the stock will go up, but not in a straight line. And you're probably right about the "bloggers".

    And I agree with kchristiank too.

  • Reply to

    Oil up Today

    by carruthersdevelopers Apr 8, 2014 1:09 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 8, 2014 1:53 PM Flag

    There will be some cost savings, but the majority of the synergies is from revenue (say 2/3+) from what I read.

  • Reply to

    Daily VWAP

    by stoxxer Mar 3, 2014 4:22 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 7, 2014 10:14 AM Flag

    "still gonna net $4M" ... if age 50, at 4%, living to 85 ... that $4 million gives you an annuity around $200,000/yr. But you also have the initial investment back:)

    (just did quick figuring)

  • Reply to

    90 Day distribution guess

    by junkmanlong Mar 7, 2014 4:49 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 8, 2014 3:20 PM Flag

    Let's assume the disputed claims are allowed, the 4th distribution is the same as D3 for AAMRQ, and labor gets what you say. If there are shares left over, where does it say that AAMRQ gets the remainder?

  • Reply to

    Thanks for cheap shares of AAL

    by securitvaults Apr 11, 2014 9:44 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 11, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    $34 was the first support (buy) area, and it looks like it is filling the gap left this morning at $34.60 ... will it continue higher or retest $34? If it doesn't hold $34, some other weak support areas below. But looking at options, I see $35 as max pain today, and for the OEX next week it looks like $35 ... a lot can happen between now and next week.

  • wgrsh wgrsh Apr 7, 2014 2:24 AM Flag

    In many cases, prior to Obamacare, pre-existing conditions were covered since the 1990s. Do we tip 18% of economy on its head? Or just make some necessary changes that many states have addressed already. A CNN article highlights below:

    Group insurance: You can't be denied coverage because of pre-existing conditions

    • In the individual market, people are often at the mercy of the insurance industry (My note: this has to change even without Obamacare ... and possible without Obamacare ... many states had already taken care of it)

    • Some professional groups offer health insurance

    • In some states, companies have to sell you a policy, and there are limits on cost

  • Reply to

    Libyan Oil Ports

    by wgrsh Apr 6, 2014 9:26 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 6, 2014 11:47 PM Flag

    Vodka ... now there is a bargaining chip

  • Reply to

    Market Corrections

    by wgrsh Apr 6, 2014 11:24 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 7, 2014 3:14 AM Flag

    "Total money market fund assets decreased by $13.12bn to only $2.63 Trillion"

    Uncle, interesting point of view, but a drop in money market funds, have recently been attributed to people going into short term treasuries (recently being over a few years). The $2.6 T is about 2005 levels.

    And, like you, I'm not good enough to call the market short term. We could have a healthy rotation out of high multiple stocks though ... until the rotation stops.

    Ugh ... it's late, shouldn't have taken such a long nap this afternoon.

  • Agreement between the rebels and government to open two of the four ports. Possibly the other two ports opening in a month or so (depending on negotiations). Anyway, with only 250,000 bbl/day being exported now, it can't get too much worse, and can get a lot better.

    Iraq still estimated to increase production substantially this year.

  • Reply to

    Market Corrections

    by wgrsh Apr 6, 2014 11:24 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 7, 2014 1:23 AM Flag

    "the check coming due so to speak,unintended consequences are a #$%$,you simply cannot have all this easy money"

    Well, we agree to disagree, but to the extent I disagree, is just a realization is that their is a way out that is understandable and very possible. We've had low interest rates because economic growth is low. And the QE was just to keep the money supply from dropping.

  • wgrsh wgrsh Apr 20, 2014 1:21 PM Flag

    The highest correlation to underachievement in school is whether you come from an intact family. The US has 30-40% more children in non-intact families as other developed countries. If we risked adjusted for that, we would probably be #1 in education as a nation. Poor education leads to worse healthcare decisions as well as the impact on jobs, poverty, etc. Mississippi has a considerably higher percentage of children in non-intact families than Wisconsin. If you risk adjust for that giving Mississippi the same proportion as Wisconsin, I think you'd be surprised. Parents are important, probably more so than teachers ... so how do you think hard working teachers feel in Mississippi. Anyway, the government won't go there, for obvious reasons ... parents are cheaper than teachers and administrators.

    By the way, the same goes for healthcare ... if we risked adjusted ... we would be #1 (and it was expensive being number one).

  • Reply to

    Free 1st checked bag for CC holders

    by allurian1 Apr 8, 2014 10:55 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 8, 2014 11:21 AM Flag

    In the sec filing (one of the 8-Ks today), "other revenue" should be up 11% over the "combined figures" from 2013. Cargo up about 3.5% yoy.

  • Reply to

    Final shares outstanding?

    by wgrsh Mar 28, 2014 7:01 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 30, 2014 12:50 AM Flag

    Uncle ... I'll use your AALCP and labor numbers or 141 and 43 million. At a price level of $36, d4 should be around .18. The other d's plus d4 add up to about 72% of the 394 million shares of AMR or 283 million AAL shares. Assume disallowed claims stand and that converts to about 25 million (is that right?).

    If all the numbers above are right then shouldn't issued shares stand at around 703-705 million shares?

    That could lead to a 30-40 cent bump in eps if current eps was based on max plan shares.

  • Reply to


    by junkmanlong Apr 8, 2014 4:35 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 9, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

    rice ... I don't think that was the "article" (coverage update) I was talking about. The article I was referencing talked about 170 million shares coming in D4 and was warning that so many shares would be hard to swallow ... I thought the number of shares seemed much less than 170 million. (I was just adding a thought to JML's post saying the April 10 date spread out the share distribution.)

    Though I think there was a discussion recently about JP Morgan raising their price target ... sort of catching up ... did JP Morgan come out with something yesterday, or a few days ago?

  • wgrsh wgrsh Mar 31, 2014 1:04 PM Flag

    "Year 2014 will end up Flat or Down"

    So many people have been saying that, and for so many months ... it'll be interesting.

  • Reply to

    188,000 shares sold of AAL

    by carruthersdevelopers Apr 9, 2014 2:35 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 9, 2014 9:52 PM Flag

    bperfett ...Yahoo posting problem so trying a work around.

  • Anybody work out the final shares outstanding ... let's assume the disputed claims are allowed.

  • Reply to

    Crude has hit a wall.

    by bobpaulovich Apr 1, 2014 12:49 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 1, 2014 1:28 PM Flag

    "I realize currency exchange rates are key to most movements, up or down."

    The free floating of currencies after Bretton Woods in the early 70's was a huge part of the oil rise then, coupled with a (real) fear factor associated with supply disruptions in 73 and 79. In the end, oil settled back down to its currency adjusted basis as the fear subsided. There has always been more oil produced as demand rose. Certainly, since 2000 when the Euro was basically 1:1, the dollar devalued, and it should have a similar impact on oil for us. But it's gone further than that, and that is, in my mind, due to financialization. And for the last five years we've known what went on due to "that" Commodities Modernization Act of 2000, and the powers to be have done barely anything to correct it. They are close to doing something about it, but there are a lot of well connected influence that has a lot of money tied up in financialization. Meanwhile for 5 years, the common guy is suppose to just take another bump in his life. We've always had a decent oil inventory ... for many decades. This stuff has to stop.

    Just as the fear/actual supply disruptions of 1970s dissipated, and oil returned to a currency adjusted level, when financialization is handled, oil will seek its currency adjusted level.

  • Reply to

    Crude has hit a wall.

    by bobpaulovich Apr 1, 2014 12:49 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 1, 2014 4:04 PM Flag

    $20 RT fare increase on average would be needed.

  • Reply to

    "Capital in the 21st Century"-1

    by w.heinlein Apr 22, 2014 12:55 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 22, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    "But he thinks the tax system has to be structured to prevent the development of an inherited oligarchy."

    Just one big "inherited oligarchy" ... the government. The revenge of King George.

13.62+0.11(+0.85%)3:20 PMEDT

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