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Alcoa Inc. Message Board

wgrsh 309 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: May 11, 2005
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  • Reply to

    I like the fear here

    by iahphx Jul 31, 2014 11:05 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Jul 31, 2014 11:26 AM Flag

    Fear is out there ... that's for sure. And I don't know where it will take the price of the stock. One thing, the analysts are using 8.5 for multiple of pre-tax eps as fair value. Fear uses different values for eps and multiples.

  • Reply to

    I am long AAL

    by hairyassgreek Aug 21, 2014 10:54 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Aug 21, 2014 6:27 PM Flag

    I guess you could call those kind of things risks ... I'd consider them tasks to be done ... if there is a glitch, it will be worked through. Parker has been through this. They have the earnings now ... without even essentially working together.

  • Reply to


    by arnoldboils Oct 15, 2014 12:40 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Oct 15, 2014 12:53 PM Flag

    Arnold, I stand by my post, but now there are three within the group that had contact or possible contact while a person was "contagious" with ebola. There is still only one group. The people on Frontier will be given some guidelines, but their risk as it appears, absent new information, is infinitesimal.

    I am questioning the judgment surrounding the guidelines of behavior for those in the "self-monitored" group. If she didn't deliberate violate guidelines, the CDC needs a few heads to role.

    And I would not be surprised if there isn't another case within the group that is quarantined and/or self-monitored from the "1" contained group.

  • wgrsh wgrsh Sep 12, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    I agree, lower commodities should help the consumer and that should help the economy in a non inflationary way. Long term rates should just ease up without an inflationary premium steepening the yield curve giving the Fed some wiggle room. What a scenario!

    And I like the guy from the CME who made the comment that if WTI broke $90, it could be a quick trip to $75-80 ... but who knows ... we'll find out.

  • Reply to

    more bad news

    by puskao Aug 1, 2014 12:06 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Aug 1, 2014 1:34 PM Flag

    Whether or not to ride something down? If the world is going to fall apart, probably not a good idea. Let say AAL goes to $35. A fair PE is 8.5 and $35 means the market think AAL will earn a bit over $4/share ... So, if the world isn't going to fall apart what are the odds of it breaking down, and if it does, how long will it stay there? And if I sold and wanted to get back in, what are the odds I would get my $35 ... it would probably reverse at $36 and I would miss it.

  • wgrsh wgrsh Oct 9, 2014 11:52 AM Flag

    I agree. The period of asking for resources for the Western African countries is past ... whatever was necessary to get the world's attention was done. I'm hopeful and waiting to hear about some progress, even more talk about confidence in dealing with the problem over there.

  • The dollar strengthening was entirely too fast. I hope it takes a pause. The change and its ramifications for other investments had to have caught people invested in the wrong places .... a lot of disruptions ... hopefully things will settle down.

    Santelli said we should fear the break in the bond market. I don't know, except that a lot of people have bonds, and would come to realize they may be in the wrong place. Actually, if the dollar just pauses here for a while, the lower inflation premium in bonds plus the lower economic growth should limit the speed of the downside in bonds. Who knows ... lots of things to watch.

  • Reply to

    Any technical people here ...

    by wgrsh Oct 16, 2014 12:57 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Oct 16, 2014 1:49 PM Flag

    Headlines are possible ... well, if the H&S predicts anything it is going to the $35-36 area soon. Oil could do a dead cat bounce and there could be headline risk ... but, a couple of days ago we had someone with ebola on a domestic flight and airline stocks are for all practical purposes shrugging it off ... guess we'll see.

  • Deputy in Dallas suspected of possibly having ebola just had his test come back ... negative.

    Hope the others quarantined remain healthy ... questionable for some of them ... but hoping.

  • Reply to

    Oil is going to $80............

    by homerunguy2000 Aug 22, 2014 10:20 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Aug 22, 2014 11:55 AM Flag

    It looks like you were asking iahphx, but deregulated derivatives in 2000 led to the credit freeze ... and at the same time that things started acting strange in the credit markets in the early-mid 2000s, commodities also started acting strangely (and there was an explosion of commodity derivatives). How can you not feel that there isn't financialization with Baghdad Bob talking shirts.

    The world has generally had the same level of inventories in almost all commodities over the years with just different hype from the media/talking shirts Baghdad Bobs. If I had to guess why there is a delay in fixing this problem is that there is a lot of money being made, so there is pushback against changes, and derivatives have a notational value in the trillions ... how do you dismantle that without messing things up? But gee whiz, it's been 5-6 years now, and common guy is taking the brunt of it.

  • Reply to

    New Highs

    by wgrsh Sep 2, 2014 3:18 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Sep 3, 2014 11:43 AM Flag

    Back then I think we were talking about condition of the transatlantic markets. Anderson mention that was strong back in August. DAL is leveraged more than the other carriers to Russia, Africa and Middle East. I can understand their recent comments regarding those areas. And I also remember saying that business isn't static. If there is a problem, the airlines can adjust capacity, and that is the main story.

    And the main story is still intact. Airline will adjust to maintain profitability over time.

    And notwithstanding oil's move today, I expect more weakness in oil. If not, the airlines will adjust fares and capacity to work profitably in whatever environment they find themselves.

  • Reply to

    impact of latest ebola infection

    by iahphx Oct 15, 2014 9:10 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Oct 15, 2014 9:45 AM Flag

    As unfortunate another infection is, it did take place within the contained group that is quarantined or self-monitored group. This is unfortunate, but shouldn't be surprising. That's why they were quarantined or self-monitored. This is a contained group. If we get another rogue traveler, or someone outside of the suspected group, that would be a concern.

    I certainly understand the visa or travel ban argument, but how would that stop a European that goes to West Africa and then travels to the US?

  • Reply to

    My trading strategy

    by iahphx Oct 15, 2014 2:15 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Oct 15, 2014 2:24 PM Flag

    By Monday we may know that the quarantined people are probably ok, but the self-monitored people have 21 days from Duncan's death, or any more deaths that may occur. And, technically, there are additional days involved.

  • Reply to

    Some of the price drivers

    by bearsrunfrombulls Sep 5, 2014 12:40 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Sep 5, 2014 2:02 PM Flag

    The entire sector certainly had a pullback, but there are those in the sector that have started to move to new highs (3 I can rattle off ... LUV, JBLU, UAL). There is noise in the sector, but I don't think those still meandering are going to ignore lower oil for too much longer.

  • Reply to

    Some of the price drivers

    by bearsrunfrombulls Sep 5, 2014 12:40 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Sep 5, 2014 1:22 PM Flag

    I agree, and there are probably numerous other reasons, that any stock can have different pressures on it, and not really have any long term implications.

    One "selling" that I thought would happen was those going long term (LT). Last August the DOJ canned the merger. Many got out and then many came back in. But even that I question as being a reason since there has been enough trading that going LT should be less of a reason especially with the stock 15% off its high and the potential to be higher than its old high ... those going long term have the option to wait.

    Merger questions? DAL did ok. UAL had some cost problems. Parker has already been through a merger. Not that mergers aren't a management (and everyone's) challenge, but Parker isn't starting at the beginning of the learning curve. Industry problems merging in the past are well known and I'm sure every effort to avoid those problems are (should be) everyone's top priority at AAL.

    Even the Wright Amendment ... impact? Sure ... there is always a changing competitive landscape. AAL said they could adjust. Besides, Parker does have a history of competing with LUV.

  • Reply to

    What a shame

    by teknowiz Aug 26, 2014 4:17 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Aug 26, 2014 5:30 PM Flag

    tekno ... AAL's pe is just a tad below DAL's. You have to convert DAL's after tax eps to pre-tax and figure the multiple ... (or AAL's eps to after tax)

  • Reply to

    oil v. ebola

    by iahphx Oct 7, 2014 10:56 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Oct 7, 2014 12:35 PM Flag

    I'll be watching for the first report from the CDC or WHO that indicates the "rate" of increase in new cases is slowing. They may be "slow" to report that since they want the world to keep resources coming, which is needed.

    It seems to me, and I don't have good numbers, but the number of recent cases haven't hit projections.

  • wgrsh wgrsh Oct 8, 2014 9:54 AM Flag

    nostra ... I just looked over the filing, but didn't work out any number yet. Q$ eps .... sorry Q4 (Freudian cap on dollar sign) looks like it will need to go up, as you say. AAL projected fuel costs for Q4 really came down ... almost to the penny of what dmspilot said last night. And as you say ... Q4 eps needs to go up ... materially.

    Q3 ... I'm still going with the current estimates since the fuel benefits only came in at tail end of the quarter and not soon enough to bring down average. But, wow, I thought the company was doing well before the drop in fuel. Now with fuel's phenomenal drop, things look really good for Q4 and 2015.

  • Reply to


    by arnoldboils Oct 15, 2014 12:40 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Oct 15, 2014 2:12 PM Flag

    Arnold .. I made my post before the second nurse announcement. But it still holds, the only "set" of people that have been in contact or possible contact with a "contagious" person are the ones in quarantine or being self-monitored. And even with the flight, the nurse was not in the contagious stage yet ... unless more info comes out to the contrary.

    I don't understand the point you are trying to make. I've always agreed that it was a gross oversight and/or poor judgment that she took a flight. Nevertheless, as of now she was not contagious while on the flight, and she probably knew to be careful of contacts anyway ... I would hope ... but she already showed poor judgment.

  • wgrsh wgrsh Oct 7, 2014 10:51 PM Flag

    June 23rd jet fuel was $2.954???? Doesn't make sense in my recollections. June was when we had the spike in oil and AAL sold their hedges ... wasn't it?

    I think fuel in Q1-Q2 averaged above $3.01-3.05+ (without going back to check, so could be wrong). July 24th guidance was the first lowering in fuel guidance to a midpoint of $2.954. The fuel discussion a number of days ago was about this. I feel the fuel saving down to $2.95 is in the eps numbers. The recent drop has been too recent to be in the numbers. But I agree with the $1.67 bump if it holds for a year ... AAL's fuel price may be slightly higher because of taxes, etc ... but still a material, material savings.

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