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Alcoa Inc. Message Board

wgrsh 278 posts  |  Last Activity: 26 minutes ago Member since: May 11, 2005
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  • Reply to

    help please

    by greggw125 Feb 7, 2014 11:13 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Feb 7, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    I'm not a dinosaur ... but have been called other things.

    "my financial backer wants to know..." Why don't you tell your financial backer that you don't know?


  • Reply to

    What's with the dip in form

    by ch1gooner Feb 10, 2014 11:15 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Feb 10, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    "Uncle Chang downgrades Cowen from Dead Fish to Rotten Dead Fish!"

    I take that "Dead Fish" are good to eat, but "Rotten Dead Fish" are not good to eat.

  • wgrsh wgrsh Feb 3, 2014 10:07 AM Flag

    "let's line these guys up for one Upgrade a day for the next 3 more days."

    It's good to manage expectations.

  • Reply to

    JP Morgan's Baker says

    by airlineprofessor Feb 1, 2014 11:27 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Feb 1, 2014 11:00 PM Flag

    "2014 and 2015 estimates lifted – Our untaxed $4.08/$5.74 rise to $5.00 and $6.35"

    If Baker is right, his target is low. Looking good. And thanks for his comments.

  • I'm sure many read the article from the last week that said because of the cash flow generators the airlines (legacies) are becoming, a new goal for the market caps should be revenues. Not a bad idea ... something to chew on over the weekend.

  • Reply to

    If You Want To Roll The Dice Again

    by buckhead4747 Feb 10, 2014 11:21 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Feb 10, 2014 11:58 AM Flag

    AAMRQ was an unusual situation. And the possibility of it working out wasn't apparent until the merger agreement was announced (remember when JP Morgan came out with their formula?)

    Will the structure of future BK's involve old equity? I wouldn't count on it. But who knows, a precedent was set AMR. I'd wait before I looked at other BK's ... if that ever happens there will be plenty of models to use in order to pick the good ones ... and there will always be a supply of BK companies.

  • wgrsh wgrsh Mar 10, 2014 7:14 PM Flag

    The webcast was pretty good. Things look good.

    The only thing I hope people aren't disappointed in is that Parker played down any near term give back of cash. I felt that he was hesitant or wanted to be non-committal when on cnbc a short while ago, but he pretty much said let the merger play out and we'll see how the industry is behaving ... essentially saying, maybe in a few years.

  • Reply to


    by marquez1234 Feb 17, 2014 7:38 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Feb 17, 2014 2:40 PM Flag

    " Is anyone familiar with this subject? "

    You mean "oil"? It's been beaten to death over the last few years, but there are still varying opinions. If you want mine, I feel that since 2009/10, the airlines have started to manage capacity to set fares to cover whatever costs they incur, including oil. So, oil is important, but manageable.

    That said, my last understanding was that oil products are priced based on "world prices" and WTI is not the oil price to watch. Brent is more the world price. I would expect that the spread between Brent and WTI to narrow, but it will probably happen without Brent dropping out of its range ... (if alanfromthebigeasy could chime in, he is the old LCC resident oil expert). Will enough WTI get out on the world market to have an impact ... don't know. Will Iran and Libya coming back online and Iraq increasing output, impact Brent ... don't know, but really, I wouldn't count on anything from the middle east. Could WTI drag Brent down, or Brent end up pushing WTI down ... ??????????

    Airlines just have to manage things regardless of oil, and they have been doing that and multiples have been expanding. If airlines can manage things so they can still be profitable at business cycle troughs, it's more room for multiples to grow. If peak earnings have room to grow at business cycle peaks, multiples can grow. The new story is proper airline management throughout the industry.

    Airline stocks have reflected multiple expansion from my first paragraph ... I don't think multiples have reflected what I mentioned in the prior paragraph. What kind of margins over the business cycle can airlines achieve and what multiple should they have are the questions.

  • Reply to

    11 cent beat....74 eps vs .63

    by opele1 Feb 13, 2014 7:46 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Feb 13, 2014 8:59 AM Flag

    And I thought last year was a "good year".

  • Reply to

    FYI from Uncle Chang

    by unclespeaking Mar 6, 2014 4:51 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 6, 2014 6:31 PM Flag

    JML ... you wrote, "I now think the optional conversions will be consider to be part of the 4th mandatory conversion when considering how many shares AAMRQ shareholders will receive."

    In looking at paragraph that talks about the conversions for AAMRQ, I don't see anything about AALCP conversions (optional or mandatory) that impact AAMRQ conversions except for the part where there is a subtraction for being over the cap. And also the VHP which is related to the debt, but that is essentially constant (+) at this point until the final amount of debt is determined for the true-up. Is there another paragraph out there that I'm not aware of?

    So if what uncle indicated is correct, the lower amount of AALCP in conversion 4 will mean just a lesser hit due to shares over the cap subtracted out.

  • Reply to


    by securitvaults Mar 13, 2014 11:33 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 13, 2014 12:50 PM Flag

    You should be ok. You can never get all your position at the low and never can sell all your position at the high, all of the time ... heck if you do it once consider yourself lucky.

    Looking at the S&P, if it doesn't hold the 1850-55 area, there are about 3 points between 1825 and 1850 that are game ... could even make a case for the 1810 area, but 1825-1830 is pretty strong support. The MACD foe the S&P is just starting to cross ... things could fumble around for a week or so ... the trend is up until its not.

  • Reply to

    AAL in the "sweet spot"

    by airlineprofessor Mar 10, 2014 8:06 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 10, 2014 10:59 AM Flag

    stkfather ... you said, "What the prof is saying [and I have said this before] ..."

    Yes, I know that is what prof (and apparently you too) were saying. All I was saying is that what was said didn't make sense. I don't see it. I don't see the hedge ... it would have been just a pure short play by an institution assumed not to be in equity investment. They were going to get their money if it went up or down without shorting.

  • People are talking about fuel going lower in spite of the fact the economy is starting to hit on more cylinders. What could be better for the airline sector?

    Sure we are producing more oil, but many commodities are talked about as being weak. If commodities moderate at all, that would take a lot of pressure off inflation and could aid in extending this bull.

  • Reply to


    by changmpark Mar 4, 2014 3:37 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 4, 2014 5:20 PM Flag

    " I am personally thankful for the post from the big and small investors."

    Have to agree with you. Many times someone will pick something up from the news or have a thought that is helpful. And I know from other yahoo boards that there are people that write blogs and articles that actively post on the yahoo boards ... though not aware of anyone doing that on this board ... still some of the posts here are very helpful.

  • Reply to

    AAL in the "sweet spot"

    by airlineprofessor Mar 10, 2014 8:06 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 10, 2014 11:33 AM Flag

    I know you didn't say "all" shorted. However, if any shorted at least one share it would have been a pure short play ... it would have made more sense for any of the other various stakeholders to short for hedging reasons than the debt holders.

  • Reply to

    Interesting Drop

    by securitvaults Mar 12, 2014 9:56 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 12, 2014 3:41 PM Flag

    Interesting pullback, but certainly not out of the ordinary. There were plenty of stocks that gapped last week and many have back filled. With AAL, and someone mentioned a drop to $36-37, it had 2-3 gaps from last week and only one remains at $36.40 and this has been characteristic of what happened after the other D's. I don't know if it will fill or not, but if it does, it wouldn't surprise me.

    The specter of lower oil is too huge for the industry, and the industry is doing well regardless. It's a pullback within an uptrend.

  • Reply to

    Considering "gifting" AAL stock

    by rbransford Feb 16, 2014 2:33 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Feb 16, 2014 8:19 PM Flag

    Gifting can work out well, especially if you are going to pay for things anyway ... might as well have more left over. Just make sure you understand what it will do with their taxes, impact on possibly losing them as an exemption (still works out well), whether they use ST or LT, ... what the heck ... just consider everything.

    If they use it for tuition and don't make enough without the gifting ... depending on the situation ... there are edu tax credits they might be able to use vs. you not being able to use them.

    If your income is up there ... you'll save your marginal shares sold at your highest tax rate ... besides the 15% going to 20% ... add the 3.8% to each of those points.

    Good luck

  • Reply to


    by wgrsh Mar 17, 2014 5:08 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 18, 2014 11:59 AM Flag

    I agree, but it's probably something we have to live with. They upended 1/6 of the economy right in the middle of a financial crisis. Actually, I think some of those proponents probably thought we were in a "garden style" recession and didn't understand the severity. Throw some (big) stimulus on it, do our agenda, and then good times ... must have been the thinking ... complete detachment from reality.

    And then they keep delaying parts of it to after the next election, then after another. A dead giveaway things are bad with it. How do businesses get going if you tell them next year they are going to get hit with a baseball bat in the knees, and then say, "No, we'll delay the pain a year, but the next year it will happen." Psychology and attitude are an important part of recoveries.

  • Reply to


    by securitvaults Mar 13, 2014 11:33 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 13, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    "Under $37 was not expected."

    I would say that the 20 DMA is game for "any" stock at any time ... the 20 DMA was under $37. Heck, even the 50 DMA should not be ruled out every so often. Keep that in mind when you are managing your expectations. Though in a bull move, averages do keep moving up.

    As long as we are down here, I would just as well see the gap at $36.40 filled. This is the 4th or 5th down day in a row ... unless this is a trend reversal, which I don't see, we're closer to the end of the pullback than the beginning.

  • Reply to

    Why the big hit today?

    by saiani Mar 18, 2014 12:51 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 18, 2014 1:17 PM Flag

    WTI is up, but it is really Brent that matters. It's up too, but off the high end of its range and lower than last year's Q1, late summer, etc. It's fluctuates within its range, so in a sense stable ... sort of nearing the middle now.

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